Big 12 football 2024

[jterrell]

It is officially official and the new Big 12 has begun fall football camps.

Very excited about this new conference, playing in some new haunts and visiting some cool cities. It is widely viewed as the most wide open conference.

My thought on the 4 new members this season.

Arizona: Led by a stud QB to WR connection that has been flourishing since HS and coming off a superb 2023. Arizona feels as good as its football team as it has in decades. The coaching change and transfer portal turnover will require watching but Arizona is a front-end squad with a solid recruiting plan for Texas. The schedule is not easy and Brennan must prove he was the right hire to meet expectation.

ASU: Close to recruiting rich Southern California there is lots to like about ASU's long-term potential. But that may be a couple seasons away as they face a nasty schedule and are just into the new Coach's rebuild. Anything above bottom 4 in the conference would be a shot in the arm for the program and an indication rebuilding is moving faster than expected.

Colorado: Everyone is familiar with what Deion is doing in Boulder. Some of the best talent in the conference with Shedeur and Travis but a lot of questions along both lines where guys from the portal will be asked to gel. The biggest issue may well be the schedule. It does them zero favors. A less discussed issue is Travis himself. Can he handle all those both way snaps and stay healthy? I could see Colorado winning anywhere from 5 to 9 games which is probably my largest swing in the conference.

Utah: The Utes have been a very strong program and feel entitled to a P2 invite but it all starts with bouncing back from a down final Pac 12 season where they lost 3 of the final 5 before taking a Bowl loss against a pretty bad Northwestern team. But they get an excellent QB TE combo back healthy and the kind of schedule they could go undefeated versus.

 

[jterrell]

Breakdown of the 4 second year members.

BYU: BYU is not beginning the power conference life as it would like with questions about its staff and recruiting. A huge Interntional brand that has been Nationally relevant many times is on tougher times currently.
Still maintain a good home field advantage but can struggle on the road. Best case for BYU is find answers at key positions and win the renewed Holy War.

Cincinatti: Much like BYU, is not entering with the desired momentum after a coaching change and mass NFL exodus. Ohio is fertile recruiting soil and a team that was facing Bama in the CFP not long ago can right the ship but it may need a new staff to do so. Early projections have them in that bottom of the Big 12 tier.

Houston: Fresh off a coaching change much like other Big 12 also-rans has a long-term view that could be very rosy. The city of Houston produces a top 5 talent base regularly.
Battling some apathy locally and trying to regain the old SWC form but Houston to remain a cellar dweller long. Fritz just built Tulane into a 10-game winner and has a lot more resources now.

UCF: Recruiting has been going swimmingly for UCF. Could not ask for a better location and base. Offense appears to be among Big 12s best but can defense rebound after a very questionable year? Really like the young guys they are getting into the program but I am far less high than most of KJ Jefferson. He really struggled to move chains last year at Arkansas with several sub 200 yard passing days. But no matter where UCF finishes the arrow is pointing up for sure.

 

[jterrell]

And now the Hateful 8.

Baylor: Baylor recently opened up NIL and started pulling together good recruiting classes for 2024 and 2025. The question will be was it too little too late to save Dave Aranda's job or just a leg up for the next coach. Baylor was great in Dave's 1st season but the program has fallen back in a big way and team wide talent and depth isn't bolstered overnight. If Baylor parts ways with Aranda, UTSA's Jeff Traylor would be the dream get. But Texas State's GJ Kinne may be an ideal land as well. They could also look to west Texas and try to lure Joey McGuire back.

Iowa State: Matt Campbell is a top 5 coach period. ISU is a young team that is building. And doing it without massive NIL or elite transfers. They just get guys they can develop and go to work. Especially tough there in Ames. 1 true weakness is slow starts to seasons. That holds the ceiling to a certain level.

Kansas: Liepold has Kansas rocking. With a healthy QB they'd be a top 10 team. Sadly, the QB has seldom been healthy and his style of play risks injury. Still a top tier Big 12 team that should at worst play sleeper.

Kansas State: Kleimann is another of the elite Big 12 Head coaches. And Avery Johnson is a legit 4.3 QB. The question will be can KSU handle losses along the OL while getting Avery going as an all-around threat. Most folks think they can. KSU is a common choice for the Big 12 Championship game and they have serious CFP aspirations.

Oklahoma State: The theme runs on here as Mike Gundy is an elite coach. You got to live with the mullet and DUI stories but what you get is a true ball coach. He knows how to focus and compartmentalize. Everyone knows all about Ollie Gordon but OSU also returns elite receiving talent in Brennan Pressley. Another short lister with CFP aspirations. But OSU, like ISU, must get going earlier in the year.

Texas Tech: Tech has not been good since the Mike Leach era. And each successive coach before Joey McGuire were basically worse. Joey brings Texas High School ties and program building flare. The talent on the Flatlands is as high as it has been in at 30 years. But a lot of that talent is 2nd and 3rd year guys. And like Kansas they need to keep a QB on the field. Tech has played three QBs three years running. But they are a dark horse Big 12 title challenger given a fairly soft schedule that could start 5 or even 6 and 0.

TCU: 2 years removed from a CFP with a very talented roster and lots of coaching staff tweaks can TCU bounce back? Probably so. Roster is chock full of Alabama transfers entering years 3 and 4. I played for Spike with Sonny on the sideline so zero slander coming from this Tech fan. TCU can right the ship if they can figure out the QB spot and play calling.

West Virginia: Everyone has WVA picked in the very bottom of the Big 12 last year and all they did was go play hardnosed football, win 9 games and absolutely embarrass UNC in a bowl game. With the QB back and a tough running game and run defense they should be poised to strike again. Schedule looks tough and might steal a game or two but I won't underestimate these Eers again.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

I think the surprise last year was BYU...in Basketball.

 

[Hardline]

Big 12 football is in the rear view mirror.
It's off to the SEC now.

 

[jterrell]

I think the surprise last year was BYU...in Basketball.

Indeed. Tech coming back to beat them was one of our biggest wins of the year.
Kentucky obviously loved it because they went and scooped up the Head Coach.

 

[jterrell]

Big 12 lands 5 in the pre-season top 25.

 

[gtb1943]

Big 12 lands 5 in the pre-season top 25.

some interesting ones there. Alabama down to #5 is telling.
Ole Miss I am slightly surprised to see that high

 

[jterrell]

some interesting ones there. Alabama down to #5 is telling.
Ole Miss I am slightly surprised to see that high

Bama is wildly overrated at 5 IMO. I think it will take the new staff a year to get going.
They are nowhere near as deep or star laden as the typical Bama squads.

With Georgia, LSU, OU, Tennessee, Missou and Auburn I see 3 regular season losses for them pretty easily.

Thats a far nastier schedule than they usually face.

Ole Miss has a much friendlier schedule than Bama. I don't think they are at all great but could see them win 10 games with this schedule.

 

[gtb1943]

Bama is wildly overrated at 5 IMO. I think it will take the new staff a year to get going.
They are nowhere near as deep or star laden as the typical Bama squads.

With Georgia, LSU, OU, Tennessee, Missou and Auburn I see 3 regular season losses for them pretty easily.

Thats a far nastier schedule than they usually face.

Ole Miss has a much friendlier schedule than Bama. I don't think they are at all great but could see them win 10 games with this schedule.

The luster of the Alabama name is the only reason they are that high. but when you think under Saban they rarely came into the season lower than second....

 

[jterrell]

The luster of the Alabama name is the only reason they are that high. but when you think under Saban they rarely came into the season lower than second....

Saban had built a true monster.

But yea being predicted to finish 3rd in the SEC pre-season media poll is the lowest they have been in over 10 years.

And some analytics guys have them finishing 6th or 7th in the SEC based upon schedule.
Saban never had a schedule this tough on paper.
He was truly talented at slanting everything in his team's favor.
Late season game versus little sisters of the poor, cupcake weeks before big non-conf game, limited 8 game conf schedule.
Stacking buy games at home.
Bama had every advantage to be honest.

This should still be a really good team and I expect them to get every tie breaker in the CFP's mindseye but making the CFP seems a real challenge witrh that schedule and a new staff.
3-4 years go Bama not making a 12 team CFP would have been seen as insane. They could have done that playing QB3.

This new coach is special on offense. And he will have access to even better players.
The long-term project looks good.
I'm just not sure anyone will be "Bama good" in these new monster P2 conferences.

 

[jterrell]

You can predict every Big 12 game at link below for free.

https://playoffpredictors.com/CFBFootball/Big12

 

[gtb1943]

Saban had built a true monster.

But yea being predicted to finish 3rd in the SEC pre-season media poll is the lowest they have been in over 10 years.

And some analytics guys have them finishing 6th or 7th in the SEC based upon schedule.
Saban never had a schedule this tough on paper.
He was truly talented at slanting everything in his team's favor.
Late season game versus little sisters of the poor, cupcake weeks before big non-conf game, limited 8 game conf schedule.
Stacking buy games at home.
Bama had every advantage to be honest.

This should still be a really good team and I expect them to get every tie breaker in the CFP's mindseye but making the CFP seems a real challenge witrh that schedule and a new staff.
3-4 years go Bama not making a 12 team CFP would have been seen as insane. They could have done that playing QB3.

This new coach is special on offense. And he will have access to even better players.
The long-term project looks good.
I'm just not sure anyone will be "Bama good" in these new monster P2 conferences.

Like in the NFL with the Pats I do not see a college Dynasty like Saban had coming again
I think that the luster of the Alabama name had started to fade already with the CFP so I do not see it getting the same treatment with Saban gone until the new coach shows he can win NCs

 

[jterrell]

Like in the NFL with the Pats I do not see a college Dynasty like Saban had coming again
I think that the luster of the Alabama name had started to fade already with the CFP so I do not see it getting the same treatment with Saban gone until the new coach shows he can win NCs

Yup. Was arguing with a Bama fan about this online.
Nick won 6 titles since 2009 but 0 since 2020.
Like Clemson we are seeing a slide back toward very good.
The portal has robbed Bama of a lot of great depth.
Win a title as a 3rd string guy then leave to start elsewhere (TCU has really been pulling Bama transfers) rather than return as a 2nd string guy.

I wouldn't be shocked if Bama is number 1 next year but this year with a new staff and the 100th rated returning production I could see a fall to around 20.
Bama does not have near the WR corps WASH did last year for DeBoer. --no one does.

 

[gtb1943]

Yup. Was arguing with a Bama fan about this online.
Nick won 6 titles since 2009 but 0 since 2020.
Like Clemson we are seeing a slide back toward very good.
The portal has robbed Bama of a lot of great depth.
Win a title as a 3rd string guy then leave to start elsewhere (TCU has really been pulling Bama transfers) rather than return as a 2nd string guy.

I wouldn't be shocked if Bama is number 1 next year but this year with a new staff and the 100th rated returning production I could see a fall to around 20.
Bama does not have near the WR corps WASH did last year for DeBoer. --no one does.

saban did two things that really cemented the dynasty
obviously recruiting; like no one else in college football history
BUT also he assembled staffs that were always excellent
the new coach has to prove he can do both.
I do not think saban was a GREAT game day coach but he was very good and he almost always had excellent DC and OC

 

[jterrell]

saban did two things that really cemented the dynasty
obviously recruiting; like no one else in college football history
BUT also he assembled staffs that were always excellent
the new coach has to prove he can do both.
I do not think saban was a GREAT game day coach but he was very good and he almost always had excellent DC and OC

Saban built NFL caliber facilities and support staff.
Massive staffs with sports psychologists and other pieces other teams never thought of.
Built the de facto arms race we saw for the past decade pre-transfer portal and NIL.
But I will still give him credit as one of the best DB coaches in the entire game.
Read somewhere he and Belichick are responsible for about 80% of the modern back-end coverages.

As the portal and NIL came into play Georgia was faster to adapt. Go get the parts you need immediately and pay the high end 5 stars to set up the HS recruiting class.
Teams like TCU has been really successful luring Bama guys that were 3rd or 4th string into the portal and onto their roster.

 

[jterrell]

serious business

 

[jterrell]

Good thread using ESPN FPI and teams' actual schedule.

 

[gtb1943]

Good thread using ESPN FPI and teams' actual schedule.

so much movement of talent with the portal and QBs not really proven in most places means things are up in the air

 

[jterrell]

so much movement of talent with the portal and QBs not really proven in most places means things are up in the air

Thats precisely why I favor FPI and other projections over top 25 polls until about week 4.
USC was ranked 6th last year pre-season.
It was based almost solely upon Caleb Williams.