Bill Belichick is a moron...

[Jimz31]

Didn't see it, but just read about it....did he also call two timeouts on that drive as well?

 

[irvin88]

terrible decision.

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

A Barry Switzer moment for sure.

at least Switzer had an excuse, there was what a 60mph wind into our faces that night, if we had punted, it might have ended up like a Sean Landeta punt.

 

[NextGenBoys]

For all those saying that it's dumb since the Colts have Manning...

That's EXACTLY why he did it. He didnt want to give Manning a chance with the ball to go down the field. He trusted his offense more than his defense.

You go for it to keep the opposing QB off the field.

I'm not saying I agree with it, but I do like the balls he has.

 

[Hoofbite]

For all those saying that it's dumb since the Colts have Manning...

That's EXACTLY why he did it. He didnt want to give Manning a chance with the ball to go down the field. He trusted his offense more than his defense.

You go for it to keep the opposing QB off the field.

I'm not saying I agree with it, but I do like the balls he has.

Not only that, his division sucks. They are still up 2 games. New England is pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot as long as Brady is there.

Sure, it was risky as all **** but guaranteed the Pats make the playoffs.

Bill went for broke and came up short. He gets the pass because he's a ****ing winner. Anyone who tries to compare him to Wade is an idiot.

 

[kmd24]

Suppose I don't give a crap about those numbers.

That's what people usually say when they have no argument.

The best thing to do in that situation is to punt the ball and make Manning beat you with 70-80 yards to go instead of 30 yards to go. That was just too easy for Manning to work on a short field like that with a timeout left. You have to make a team work for it no matter what.

Repeatedly asserting your belief with no supporting evidence doesn't increase its veracity.

 

[jimmy40]

at least Switzer had an excuse, there was what a 60mph wind into our faces that night, if we had punted, it might have ended up like a Sean Landeta punt.

Switzer was an idiot.

 

[Direwolf63]

I can't disagree with you at all. I still respect him as the game's greatest coach, but that was idiotic.

You do that against a Jason Campbell (shut up Wade, don't even think it), not a Peyton Manning.

It's really all very simple.

1. Belichek knows his team will be in the AFC Championship game. He knows he will play the Colts. He considers the Steelers, Chargers, Ravens etc pretenders. Whether he's right or not, he believes only the Colts can beat them when it REALLY counts.

2. Belichek doesn't care where the AFC Championship Game will be played. He can win just as easily in a dome in mid January at Indy as he can at home in a blizzard. In fact, he probably likes his chances better in a dome, where Moss can run wild.

3. This "Rivalry of the Decade" stuff is all a media creation. A hype for ratings. Belichek doesn't care about any of that stuff. In fact he hates it. Last night's game was not nearly as important to him as it was for everybody else. He's interested only in the playoffs. By going for it, he basically gave the finger to everybody watching.

4. Now that the Colts have won, Belichek wants them to go 16-0. He wants to be the guy to end their undefeated streak....not last night, but in the biggest game of the year. He wants to do what the Giants did to him 2 years ago.

So he went for it. Makes it and he wins. Loses and the consequences are not nearly as bad as everyone makes them out to be. Had last nights game been for a trip to the Super Bowl, he would have punted.

But it wasn't. They will still make the playoffs and likely face the Colts again. That's what he wants. He doesn't give a crap about what you, I or the media think. He's thinking playoffs right now.

Count on it. He walked into the lock room after the game and said. "This game was on me. I'll take the blame. But it's not over. Those who think it's over had better think again. We'll be back in January. And that's when we will win." His players will eat it up.

His move was the height of arrogance, like many have said. But he's no moron. Far from it.

 

[Direwolf63]

I don't think the Pats are too scared to come back to Indy in the playoffs.

Exactly right.

I think Belichek thinks he has a better chance of winning in perfect conditions instead of horrible weather in mid-January.

 

[casmith07]

For all those saying that it's dumb since the Colts have Manning...

That's EXACTLY why he did it. He didnt want to give Manning a chance with the ball to go down the field. He trusted his offense more than his defense.

You go for it to keep the opposing QB off the field.

I'm not saying I agree with it, but I do like the balls he has.

Not only that, his division sucks. They are still up 2 games. New England is pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot as long as Brady is there.

Sure, it was risky as all **** but guaranteed the Pats make the playoffs.

Bill went for broke and came up short. He gets the pass because he's a ****ing winner. Anyone who tries to compare him to Wade is an idiot.

No, and no. You don't even give your team the chance of turning the ball over to Peyton Manning with 29 yards to go to score with 2 minutes and 1 timeout - you boom a punt inside the 20, and you trust your defense that has picked off Manning TWICE in the game to force another turnover or hold them enough that they're making desperation throws when the clock is under a minute.

Belichick outsmarted himself on that one - and it was an arrogant call similar to when the Patriots were going for it on 4th and 6 from the opponent's 29 yard line in 2007 attempting to run up the score.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

It wasn't ballsy and it wasn't gutsy. It was stupid due to his arrogance.

You have 2 minutes left. You are up by 6 points. A FG doesn't do the Colts any good. They HAVE to score a TD.

I would rather have even the great Peyton Manning go 70 yards in 2 minutes instead of 29 yards. Even with Switzer's call, I would rather have the Eagles have to drive a little to get into FG position than putting them automatically in FG position.

Call me crazy, but I think the odds are much more in your favor to have Manning go 70 yards in 2 minutes than they are to convert a 4th and 2.





YAKUZA

 

[The Patriot]

Belichick outsmarted himself on that one

What does that even mean? I hear it all the time.

 

[Temo]

It was a good decision. The math backs him up.

 

[Rogah]

That's what people usually say when they have no argument.

Or when someone posts numbers that are pulled just completely out of nowhere with absolutely no supporting evidence.

Repeatedly asserting your belief with no supporting evidence doesn't increase its veracity.

With all due respect, your supporting evidence is pretty weak too. As I said above, your numbers are just figures you pulled out of nowhere but expect us to treat them like mathematical certainties. I think that from 30 yards away there is a 90% chance of Manning scoring a touchdown because the clock will not be a factor - in fact we saw the Colts were deliberately slowing down. But from 75 yards away the clock is much more of a factor, so they have about a 20% chance of scoring. Using my numbers, they need to convert 78% of the time for it to be a break even decision. Punting is the right decision in that case.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Or when someone posts numbers that are pulled just completely out of nowhere with absolutely no supporting evidence.
With all due respect, your supporting evidence is pretty weak too.

The numbers are out there. Folks at the Football Outsiders discussion looked them up, and they basically say that, on average, you should go for it if you have a 60-70% chance of making it. I would argue that this situation was not the average: both offenses were better than the defenses they were facing, which means the Patriots have a better chance of converting and the Colts have a better chance of driving down the field for the TD. Which skews things even more in favor of going for it.

 

[Temo]

With all due respect, your supporting evidence is pretty weak too. As I said above, your numbers are just figures you pulled out of nowhere but expect us to treat them like mathematical certainties. I think that from 30 yards away there is a 90% chance of Manning scoring a touchdown because the clock will not be a factor - in fact we saw the Colts were deliberately slowing down. But from 75 yards away the clock is much more of a factor, so they have about a 20% chance of scoring. Using my numbers, they need to convert 78% of the time for it to be a break even decision. Punting is the right decision in that case.

20% beside the fact that Manning had already led a 79 yard, 5 play drive in 2:04 with no time outs earlier in the quarter? AND a 6 play 79 yard drive in 1:49 in the SAME 4th quarter? Their offense was rolling, no way was their chance of scoring 20%.

 

[JD_KaPow]

You have 2 minutes left. You are up by 6 points. A FG doesn't do the Colts any good. They HAVE to score a TD.

I would rather have even the great Peyton Manning go 70 yards in 2 minutes instead of 29 yards. Even with Switzer's call, I would rather have the Eagles have to drive a little to get into FG position than putting them automatically in FG position.

Call me crazy, but I think the odds are much more in your favor to have Manning go 70 yards in 2 minutes than they are to convert a 4th and 2.

Again, that's not the calculation. Even if you don't convert the 4th and 2, you still have a chance to win by just stopping them. And they didn't - Manning went through them like a hot knife through butter. Just like he had been all quarter. Just like, I believe, he would have from 70 yards away.

In the 4th quarter, the Colts had two 79-yard TD drives. The first took 2:09. The second took 1:49. And they weren't particularly trying to move that fast on those (on the first one, at least).

And if it wasn't the right move, it was a really really close call - not the incredibly boneheaded move people are making it out to be.

The mistake was not leaving themselves a timeout. Another mistake was not running on either 3rd-and-2 or 4th-and-2. But going for it, I still believe, was the right move.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

LOL. This thread is hilarious.

If Kevin Faulk did his usual, and catches that ball cleanly, the Pats convert that and they win the game. Then I guess he'd have been an absolutely all guts, no fear, genius this morning.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Or when someone posts numbers that are pulled just completely out of nowhere with absolutely no supporting evidence.
With all due respect, your supporting evidence is pretty weak too. As I said above, your numbers are just figures you pulled out of nowhere but expect us to treat them like mathematical certainties. I think that from 30 yards away there is a 90% chance of Manning scoring a touchdown because the clock will not be a factor - in fact we saw the Colts were deliberately slowing down. But from 75 yards away the clock is much more of a factor, so they have about a 20% chance of scoring. Using my numbers, they need to convert 78% of the time for it to be a break even decision. Punting is the right decision in that case.

Here's the analysis with real data. Needless to say, your numbers are way way off.

 

[JVita17]

Peyton Manning would have scrored either way I believe. Us as Cowboys fans arent used to a elite QB and what he can do. The Pats knew the game would be over no matter what position on the field the Colts started with. Better beat them before they beat us.