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Iyer's SportingBlog
Projects editor Vinnie Iyer has been with Sporting News since 1999, first serving as an editor and writer for SportingNews.com
April 28, 2007
More Iyer analysis: Round 2 | Round 3
War Room: Day 1 analysis | Draft board
Here we go: Months of analyzing and dissecting finally turns into hours of picking and trading. I am on the clock all Saturday, starting at the top:
Just when I thought ESPN had made a smart move in getting rid of Michael Irvin, we now have to put up with Keyshawn Johnson, draft analyst. Keyshawn got off to a great start in pre-draft show, declaring "JaMarcus Russell is the quarterback who can take the Raiders into the next millennium." I know Russell is raw, but I doubt he needs another 993 years to develop.
Raiders take JaMarcus Russell first overall. Even with the unpredictability of Al Davis, this has been a pretty predictable pick since Russell's terrific Sugar Bowl. Russell will be called upon to start right away for a putrid offense, which won't allow him to gradually develop and will hurt his ability to reach his full potential -- see Tim Couch, David Carr and Joey Harrington.
Now it gets interesting. You can bet Detroit's Matt Millen and Cleveland's Phil Savage are on the two hottest seats among NFL decision makers based on what they do Saturday.
Lions take Calvin Johnson at No. 2. I love this guy to be an instant impact player. Now let's hope the Lions keep him and not worry about their recent first-round draft history at the position -- Johnson is a much better and more dedicated all-around receiver than either Charles Rogers or Mike Williams. Instead, they should be ecstatic about the fact that Johnson and Roy Williams give them a ridiculously dangerous duo for the present.
Browns take Joe Thomas at No. 3. Shocking. Brady Quinn was the local Ohio kid anticipating his name being called in the green room, but Cleveland made the smarter move by taking the man fishing on Lake Michigan to play near Lake Erie. The Browns already have a stud wide receiver, Braylon Edwards, and a stud tight end, Kellen Winslow; a stud left tackle such as Thomas is the final piece to helping a quarterback. Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson should be thrilled -- both that Quinn wasn't drafted and that they will get much improved pass protection in 2007.
Well done, Mr. Millen and Mr. Savage. You each got safe, great picks. Take a deep breath -- and work on making the rest of the rounds winners, too.
Buccaneers take Gaines Adams at No. 4. Whew. I thought Jon Gruden was about to end up with yet another quarterback here. The trademark of the Bucs' defense used to be their pass rush, but age (Simeon Rice is 33 and still may be released) and departures (Dewayne White) have further hampered them at defensive end. The Bucs had only 25 sacks last season, 11 down from 2005 and 20 down from '04. Adams will help push that number back to where it needs to be for Monte Kiffin's unit to consistently succeed.
Cardinals take Levi Brown at No. 5. This is a good consolation prize with Thomas off the board. We know the Cardinals already had all the necessary offensive skill players -- Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Edgerrin James and Matt Leinart -- they just needed a rock on the right side to protect the lefthanded Leinart and open holes for James. This will help the offense take another big step forward under two former Steelers offensive minds, head coach Ken Whisenhunt and line coach Russ Grimm.
The Commanders obviously don't make sense for Adrian Peterson because they already have Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, but if I'm picking at No. 7 (Vikings) and beyond, I'm ready to jump on AP if he's available.
Commanders take LaRon Landry at No. 6. Teams now need two solid safeties to create stability in the secondary. Look at the other Landry in the Beltway, LaRon's brother Dawan, a Ravens '06 fifth-rounder who earned the starting job opposite Ed Reed. LaRon also gets a chance to play opposite a hard-hitting former Hurricane, Sean Taylor. Talk about symmetry and being able to take care of two halves of the field. The problem is, unless there's a trade, Washington's Day 1 haul is done.
Vikings take Adrian Peterson at No. 7. Chester Taylor had a little trouble holding up with a heavy load last season. That won't be a problem this season. You can expect Brad Childress will find a smart way to make use of Taylor's hard running and Peterson's big-play ability, much like Sean Payton did with Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. Look for Minnesota to have one of the league's most dynamic West Coast-style offenses in '07, as Peterson, like Bush, can be an immediate big contributor in the short passing game as well.
What is Brady Quinn thinking now? He's compared some of his traits to those of Joe Montana's and Tom Brady's, but he better be prepared for the pressure of playing in the shadow another legend, Dan Marino. The Dolphins look like the right fit.
Falcons take Jamaal Anderson at No. 8. No, they aren't selecting the former University of Utah running back who once made the Dirty Bird the most popular dance in Atlanta, but it's still weird for a franchise to have two different players with a rare same name. This Jamaal is totally different, beyond the extra "A." He's one who can help the Falcons enjoy some sack dances, in the wake of Patrick Kerney's free-agent departure and John Abraham's constant injury concerns. If the Falcons couldn't get LaRon Landry, this was the way to go.
Dolphins take Ted Ginn Jr. at No. 9. Whoa. At least this pick rhymes with "Quinn." I'm a huge fan of Ginn. I love the fact he can spark both Miami's passing game under Cam Cameron in multiple-receiver sets and compensate for the loss of Wes Welker in the return game. This makes me more confident that the Dolphins will get a deal done for Trent Green as their quarterback of the present, release Daunte Culpepper and then line up Cleo Lemon as their quarterback of the future.
Texans take Amobi Okoye at No. 10. Houston is slowly building a fine young defense, and tackle was a missing piece. Okoye, only 19, joins a promising unit that includes middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans, end Mario Williams and cornerback Dunta Robinson. I know offensive tackle seems to always be the team's glaring need, but after investing in Matt Schaub and Ahman Green on that side of the ball, it made sense to work on the other side here.
49ers take Patrick Willis at No. 11. The 49ers are collecting an impressive group of athletes, aren't they? Frank Gore and Vernon Davis have boosted the offense, now the team can welcome Willis' speed and explosiveness -- at either inside or outside linebacker -- to the defense. Consider who else was added to Mike Nolan's 3-4 this offseason: Cornerback Nate Clements, pass-rushing outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain, safety Michael Lewis and nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin. Willis, along with all four of those veterans, will start, and expect the Niners to field a dramatically improved unit.
It seems I read somewhere that Brady Quinn would be a great pick for the Panthers. That's the next spot for him, but if he doesn't go there, you're looking at possibly Jacksonville at No. 17, Kansas City at No. 23 or Baltimore at No. 29.
Bills take Marshawn Lynch at No. 12. I'm not a big fan of Lynch. He's got some fine all-around potential, but his durability and character concerns make me feel he's really not that much better than backs who will go much later, such as Arizona's Chris Henry and Nebraska's Brandon Jackson. With Willis gone, I think Buffalo should have gone with a cornerback, getting Michigan's Leon Hall to help replace Clements. The one positive: It does fill a need, because the Bills couldn't go into the season with Anthony Thomas as their top back.
Rams take Adam Carriker at No. 13. I had neither Lynch nor Carriker going in Round 1 in my "ideal mock draft." But unlike Lynch, whom I simply thought was overrated, Carriker has had an amazing rise since I conducted the first 15 picks in my 32-day mock. He's a perfect pick for the Rams, and not just because he's another Nebraska end, a la former Ram Grant Wistrom. Carriker's ability to play either inside or outside will make him very valuable in the Rams' line rotation, which needs help at both end and tackle. Solid pick.
We were having a little bit of a draft lull, so thank heavens that the Panthers made a trade to put the hometown Jets on the clock and wake up the crowd. Although at the price of a first-, second- and fifth-rounder for a first- and sixth-rounder, New York must believe "the best player available" for the team is impossible to pass up.
Jets trade up to take Darrelle Revis at No. 14. OK, there was uncertainty about who exactly was the top cornerback in this draft, with similar values from the middle of the first round to the middle of the second round, but the Jets are ultra-convinced Revis is No. 1. Of all the highly rated corners, I think Revis is the most ready to contribute and star in nickel packages. He also adds to their speedsters at the position, which include Andre Dyson and Justin Miller.
Steelers take Lawrence Timmons at No. 15. Not surprisingly, Pittsburgh is the fine organization that makes the first exact pick since Russell from my "ideal mock draft." Timmons can either play outside in the Steelers' current 3-4 look or the weakside if coach Mike Tomlin decides to make the gradual or part-time transition to a 4-3 look. Timmons allows the team to be versatile with its defense and also helps replace Joey Porter.
Quinn to the Packers? Interesting possibility, but I would pass if I'm Ted Thompson. The Pack have the talent to win now in a pretty weak NFC North and NFC overall. I would go for a playmaker -- tight end Greg Olsen or wide receiver Dwayne Bowe -- who can immediately help their current quarterback, Brett Favre.
Packers take Justin Harrell at No. 16. Wow, so much for offensive help in the form of Olsen, Bowe or even another Tennessee prospect, wide receiver Robert Meachem. Instead, the Packers go with an athletic but inconsistent defensive tackle. I don't get it. I really think this team had the potential to win now if it brought someone in to help Favre. With the team in decent shape at tackle, Harrell is a real head-scratcher.
Broncos trade up to take Jarvis Moss at No. 17. Great, aggressive move by Denver, well worth giving up both a third- and sixth-rounder to Jacksonville for this pick. I love Moss' size (6-6 1/2, 258), speed and athleticism. The Broncos have needed a stud pass-rushing end for a while now, and Moss can be productive on running downs, too. They're especially set on third down, where Moss is a fine contrast to shorter (5-11) pass-rush specialist Elvis Dumervil, who was a pleasant surprise as a rookie last season.
So the wait for Quinn goes on. Will the Chiefs pull the trigger at No. 23, or are they content with second-year man Brodie Croyle as their quarterback of the near future? Then again, maybe Jacksonville will remain a player down at No. 21.
Bengals take Leon Hall at No. 18. Great value for Cincinnati, a team that was atrocious on pass defense last season at 31st in the league. I thought the Vikings, who had the league's worst past defense, would consider Hall way back up at No. 7, but Hall's fall is Cincy's big gain. The Bengals were smart to not re-sign Tory James and promote second-year man Jonathan Joseph. Hall and Joseph have the potential to be a solid corner duo for years to come. You can bet Deltha O'Neal won't be a starter for much longer.
Titans take Michael Griffin at No. 19. So much for Tennessee trading for Chargers running back Michael Turner. Instead, the Titans go with another athletic Michael with the idea of improving their weak secondary play, which will be further weakened by Pacman Jones' suspension. Going Longhorn with Vince Young didn't disappoint last year, and I think the Titans will be very happy with Griffin roaming the intermediate-to-deep middle in a year or two.
Giants take Aaron Ross at No. 20. The pedigree of secondary defenders from Texas can't be denied and New York also desperately needed a young cornerback, so Ross is a terrific pick for them. Arkansas offensive tackle Tony Ugoh or Penn State outside linebacker Paul Posluszny would have been good picks, too. When you have multiple glaring needs, you're bound to address one nicely. Sam Madison and R.W. McQuarters is a shaky veteran corner combination as both are in the late stages of their careers.
Jaguars take Reggie Nelson at No. 21. This is weird: I had the Broncos taking one stud defensive Gator (Moss) here, and I had the Jags taking this stud Gator (Nelson) back at No. 17 before the teams traded. I still get credit for both, right? Nelson was a no-brainer. The Jags stayed in-state to address a major void, both a positional one (safety) and a statistical one (takeaways). Nelson should raise the Jags' playmaking quotient right away.
Quinn to the Cowboys? Um, no. I am a firm believer that you can work on developing only one young quarterback at a time. I would rather to continue to work with Tony Romo, who has considerably more seasoning and, by the way, made the Pro Bowl despite not starting for a whole season.
Browns trade up to take Brady Quinn at No. 22. First, let me applaud the Cowboys for sensing this was the right time to make a deal with Cleveland, right before Kansas City's turn. Getting an extra first-rounder in '08 and an extra second-rounder in '07 is a great coup for Jerry Jones. As for Quinn still going to the Browns, now along with -- instead of instead of -- Joe Thomas, it makes more sense. I'm not completely sold on Quinn starring for Romeo Crennel the way he did for Charlie Weis, but that said, he's a solid hometown team value here.
Chiefs take Dwayne Bowe at No. 23. I don't think Kansas City was necessarily planning on taking a wide receiver, but there's no way they could pass on Bowe, the clear third-best prospect at the position after Johnson and Ginn. Considering their best current wide receiver is a fading LSU guy, Eddie Kennison, they were smart to take a rising LSU guy. Bowe should find room to make plays over the middle with defensive backs also being concerned with Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson.
Patriots take Brandon Meriweather at No. 24. Wow, this is the fourth pick I've gotten right since No. 15. But really, I think it's easier to project picks in the second half of the first round, when there are fewer elite prospects who may have fallen. It was pretty obvious that the Pats would take a safety with one of their two first-round picks, and this is a great pick. They can look beyond Meriweather's character issues because a) Bill Belichick is good at molding everyone as a player and a person and b) Meriweather has the talent to be an immediate hard-hitting starter. Consider him a newer model of Rodney Harrison.
I reminded again why I'm happy that Michael Irvin is no longer on ESPN's draft coverage, because I get this feeling we're about to have another pick from "The U." I'm still dreading, however, the moment when Keyshawn Johnson can comment on the first '07 draft pick from Southern Cal.
Panthers take Jon Beason at No. 25. Well, it is indeed a Hurricane, but I thought it would be tight end Greg Olsen, not Beason. Still I don't think Beason is a bad pick, because he has the speed and athleticism to start immediately. There's a bit of opening on the weakside, and the former Hurricane they have in the middle, Dan Morgan, is always playing -- or sitting -- hurt. With Meriweather and Nelson both gone, Carolina is smart to wait to address safety in a later round.
Cowboys trade up to take Anthony Spencer at No. 26. It seems strange that Dallas a) gave up second-, third- and fifth-rounders for Spencer and b) made the deal with division rival Philadelphia, but the actual pick of Spencer is not strange at all for a Wade Phillips-coached team. Phillips knows the importance of having two fine outside linebackers in the 3-4 with the success he had with both Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips in San Diego. In the same way the Purdue product Phillips complements top pass rusher Merriman, the Purdue product Spencer can do the same to take blocking pressure off DeMarcus Ware.
Saints take Robert Meachem at No. 27. I know Sean Payton loves a dynamic passing game, but he already had that with Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Terrance Copper and the team's leading receiver in 2006, Reggie Bush. If the team were going to go that way, I thought it would be tight end Greg Olsen. But to draft for the team's strongest position makes little sense. The only explanation: Meachem was the best player available, and the cornerback they wanted was long gone. Arkansas corner Chris Houston should have been the pick.
49ers trade up to take Joe Staley at No. 28. Mike Nolan probably was worried that his old team, Baltimore, would take the next best offensive tackle. But I think that's Tony Ugoh, and not Staley. Staley is certainly athletic but is more of a project than Ugoh. And the price of sending a 2008 first-rounder and a '07 fourth-rounder seems way too high for that type of lineman.
Ravens take Ben Grubbs at No. 29. Well, well. I guess Ugoh's stock has somewhat dropped for Baltimore to go away from its biggest offensive line need and draft a guard instead. But really, taking Ugoh would have been for the future, and the Ravens have an open window of winning a Super Bowl now, while Steve McNair still is playing. And Grubbs can start right away at right guard, helping to open holes for Willis McGahee.
Chargers take Craig Davis at No. 30. The selection of Davis completes the top troika of LSU's passing game going in the first round after Russell went to the Raiders and Bowe went to the Chiefs. So there will be plenty of Bayou Bengal reunions in AFC West play this season. Davis may seem like a reach here, but he's exactly what San Diego needs. At 6-1 3/8, 202 with 4.40 speed, he can be the right perimeter big-play threat to support LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson.
Bears take Greg Olsen at No. 31. Finally, this rare athlete goes, and to a team he can significantly help in his first season. A big-time pass-catching tight end is a quarterback's best friend, and after the Super Bowl meltdown, Rex Grossman needs best friends. Olsen, in an offense that already has Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammad and Cedric Benson, should consistently find room to get open against safeties and linebackers.
Colts take Anthony Gonzalez at No. 32. Not to be outdone by the Davis-Bowe combination, Gonzalez makes it two Buckeye wideouts in the first round after Ginn went to the Dolphins way back at No. 9. Gonzalez can do two things for Indy: a) Become an explosive slot receiver to help replace Brandon Stokley and b) Spark their dormant return game. Sure, the Super Bowl champs could have used defensive help, but then again, they are the Super Bowl champs, and they can afford to make a luxury pick.
Projects editor Vinnie Iyer has been with Sporting News since 1999, first serving as an editor and writer for SportingNews.com
April 28, 2007
More Iyer analysis: Round 2 | Round 3
War Room: Day 1 analysis | Draft board
Here we go: Months of analyzing and dissecting finally turns into hours of picking and trading. I am on the clock all Saturday, starting at the top:
Just when I thought ESPN had made a smart move in getting rid of Michael Irvin, we now have to put up with Keyshawn Johnson, draft analyst. Keyshawn got off to a great start in pre-draft show, declaring "JaMarcus Russell is the quarterback who can take the Raiders into the next millennium." I know Russell is raw, but I doubt he needs another 993 years to develop.
Raiders take JaMarcus Russell first overall. Even with the unpredictability of Al Davis, this has been a pretty predictable pick since Russell's terrific Sugar Bowl. Russell will be called upon to start right away for a putrid offense, which won't allow him to gradually develop and will hurt his ability to reach his full potential -- see Tim Couch, David Carr and Joey Harrington.
Now it gets interesting. You can bet Detroit's Matt Millen and Cleveland's Phil Savage are on the two hottest seats among NFL decision makers based on what they do Saturday.
Lions take Calvin Johnson at No. 2. I love this guy to be an instant impact player. Now let's hope the Lions keep him and not worry about their recent first-round draft history at the position -- Johnson is a much better and more dedicated all-around receiver than either Charles Rogers or Mike Williams. Instead, they should be ecstatic about the fact that Johnson and Roy Williams give them a ridiculously dangerous duo for the present.
Browns take Joe Thomas at No. 3. Shocking. Brady Quinn was the local Ohio kid anticipating his name being called in the green room, but Cleveland made the smarter move by taking the man fishing on Lake Michigan to play near Lake Erie. The Browns already have a stud wide receiver, Braylon Edwards, and a stud tight end, Kellen Winslow; a stud left tackle such as Thomas is the final piece to helping a quarterback. Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson should be thrilled -- both that Quinn wasn't drafted and that they will get much improved pass protection in 2007.
Well done, Mr. Millen and Mr. Savage. You each got safe, great picks. Take a deep breath -- and work on making the rest of the rounds winners, too.
Buccaneers take Gaines Adams at No. 4. Whew. I thought Jon Gruden was about to end up with yet another quarterback here. The trademark of the Bucs' defense used to be their pass rush, but age (Simeon Rice is 33 and still may be released) and departures (Dewayne White) have further hampered them at defensive end. The Bucs had only 25 sacks last season, 11 down from 2005 and 20 down from '04. Adams will help push that number back to where it needs to be for Monte Kiffin's unit to consistently succeed.
Cardinals take Levi Brown at No. 5. This is a good consolation prize with Thomas off the board. We know the Cardinals already had all the necessary offensive skill players -- Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Edgerrin James and Matt Leinart -- they just needed a rock on the right side to protect the lefthanded Leinart and open holes for James. This will help the offense take another big step forward under two former Steelers offensive minds, head coach Ken Whisenhunt and line coach Russ Grimm.
The Commanders obviously don't make sense for Adrian Peterson because they already have Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, but if I'm picking at No. 7 (Vikings) and beyond, I'm ready to jump on AP if he's available.
Commanders take LaRon Landry at No. 6. Teams now need two solid safeties to create stability in the secondary. Look at the other Landry in the Beltway, LaRon's brother Dawan, a Ravens '06 fifth-rounder who earned the starting job opposite Ed Reed. LaRon also gets a chance to play opposite a hard-hitting former Hurricane, Sean Taylor. Talk about symmetry and being able to take care of two halves of the field. The problem is, unless there's a trade, Washington's Day 1 haul is done.
Vikings take Adrian Peterson at No. 7. Chester Taylor had a little trouble holding up with a heavy load last season. That won't be a problem this season. You can expect Brad Childress will find a smart way to make use of Taylor's hard running and Peterson's big-play ability, much like Sean Payton did with Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. Look for Minnesota to have one of the league's most dynamic West Coast-style offenses in '07, as Peterson, like Bush, can be an immediate big contributor in the short passing game as well.
What is Brady Quinn thinking now? He's compared some of his traits to those of Joe Montana's and Tom Brady's, but he better be prepared for the pressure of playing in the shadow another legend, Dan Marino. The Dolphins look like the right fit.
Falcons take Jamaal Anderson at No. 8. No, they aren't selecting the former University of Utah running back who once made the Dirty Bird the most popular dance in Atlanta, but it's still weird for a franchise to have two different players with a rare same name. This Jamaal is totally different, beyond the extra "A." He's one who can help the Falcons enjoy some sack dances, in the wake of Patrick Kerney's free-agent departure and John Abraham's constant injury concerns. If the Falcons couldn't get LaRon Landry, this was the way to go.
Dolphins take Ted Ginn Jr. at No. 9. Whoa. At least this pick rhymes with "Quinn." I'm a huge fan of Ginn. I love the fact he can spark both Miami's passing game under Cam Cameron in multiple-receiver sets and compensate for the loss of Wes Welker in the return game. This makes me more confident that the Dolphins will get a deal done for Trent Green as their quarterback of the present, release Daunte Culpepper and then line up Cleo Lemon as their quarterback of the future.
Texans take Amobi Okoye at No. 10. Houston is slowly building a fine young defense, and tackle was a missing piece. Okoye, only 19, joins a promising unit that includes middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans, end Mario Williams and cornerback Dunta Robinson. I know offensive tackle seems to always be the team's glaring need, but after investing in Matt Schaub and Ahman Green on that side of the ball, it made sense to work on the other side here.
49ers take Patrick Willis at No. 11. The 49ers are collecting an impressive group of athletes, aren't they? Frank Gore and Vernon Davis have boosted the offense, now the team can welcome Willis' speed and explosiveness -- at either inside or outside linebacker -- to the defense. Consider who else was added to Mike Nolan's 3-4 this offseason: Cornerback Nate Clements, pass-rushing outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain, safety Michael Lewis and nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin. Willis, along with all four of those veterans, will start, and expect the Niners to field a dramatically improved unit.
It seems I read somewhere that Brady Quinn would be a great pick for the Panthers. That's the next spot for him, but if he doesn't go there, you're looking at possibly Jacksonville at No. 17, Kansas City at No. 23 or Baltimore at No. 29.
Bills take Marshawn Lynch at No. 12. I'm not a big fan of Lynch. He's got some fine all-around potential, but his durability and character concerns make me feel he's really not that much better than backs who will go much later, such as Arizona's Chris Henry and Nebraska's Brandon Jackson. With Willis gone, I think Buffalo should have gone with a cornerback, getting Michigan's Leon Hall to help replace Clements. The one positive: It does fill a need, because the Bills couldn't go into the season with Anthony Thomas as their top back.
Rams take Adam Carriker at No. 13. I had neither Lynch nor Carriker going in Round 1 in my "ideal mock draft." But unlike Lynch, whom I simply thought was overrated, Carriker has had an amazing rise since I conducted the first 15 picks in my 32-day mock. He's a perfect pick for the Rams, and not just because he's another Nebraska end, a la former Ram Grant Wistrom. Carriker's ability to play either inside or outside will make him very valuable in the Rams' line rotation, which needs help at both end and tackle. Solid pick.
We were having a little bit of a draft lull, so thank heavens that the Panthers made a trade to put the hometown Jets on the clock and wake up the crowd. Although at the price of a first-, second- and fifth-rounder for a first- and sixth-rounder, New York must believe "the best player available" for the team is impossible to pass up.
Jets trade up to take Darrelle Revis at No. 14. OK, there was uncertainty about who exactly was the top cornerback in this draft, with similar values from the middle of the first round to the middle of the second round, but the Jets are ultra-convinced Revis is No. 1. Of all the highly rated corners, I think Revis is the most ready to contribute and star in nickel packages. He also adds to their speedsters at the position, which include Andre Dyson and Justin Miller.
Steelers take Lawrence Timmons at No. 15. Not surprisingly, Pittsburgh is the fine organization that makes the first exact pick since Russell from my "ideal mock draft." Timmons can either play outside in the Steelers' current 3-4 look or the weakside if coach Mike Tomlin decides to make the gradual or part-time transition to a 4-3 look. Timmons allows the team to be versatile with its defense and also helps replace Joey Porter.
Quinn to the Packers? Interesting possibility, but I would pass if I'm Ted Thompson. The Pack have the talent to win now in a pretty weak NFC North and NFC overall. I would go for a playmaker -- tight end Greg Olsen or wide receiver Dwayne Bowe -- who can immediately help their current quarterback, Brett Favre.
Packers take Justin Harrell at No. 16. Wow, so much for offensive help in the form of Olsen, Bowe or even another Tennessee prospect, wide receiver Robert Meachem. Instead, the Packers go with an athletic but inconsistent defensive tackle. I don't get it. I really think this team had the potential to win now if it brought someone in to help Favre. With the team in decent shape at tackle, Harrell is a real head-scratcher.
Broncos trade up to take Jarvis Moss at No. 17. Great, aggressive move by Denver, well worth giving up both a third- and sixth-rounder to Jacksonville for this pick. I love Moss' size (6-6 1/2, 258), speed and athleticism. The Broncos have needed a stud pass-rushing end for a while now, and Moss can be productive on running downs, too. They're especially set on third down, where Moss is a fine contrast to shorter (5-11) pass-rush specialist Elvis Dumervil, who was a pleasant surprise as a rookie last season.
So the wait for Quinn goes on. Will the Chiefs pull the trigger at No. 23, or are they content with second-year man Brodie Croyle as their quarterback of the near future? Then again, maybe Jacksonville will remain a player down at No. 21.
Bengals take Leon Hall at No. 18. Great value for Cincinnati, a team that was atrocious on pass defense last season at 31st in the league. I thought the Vikings, who had the league's worst past defense, would consider Hall way back up at No. 7, but Hall's fall is Cincy's big gain. The Bengals were smart to not re-sign Tory James and promote second-year man Jonathan Joseph. Hall and Joseph have the potential to be a solid corner duo for years to come. You can bet Deltha O'Neal won't be a starter for much longer.
Titans take Michael Griffin at No. 19. So much for Tennessee trading for Chargers running back Michael Turner. Instead, the Titans go with another athletic Michael with the idea of improving their weak secondary play, which will be further weakened by Pacman Jones' suspension. Going Longhorn with Vince Young didn't disappoint last year, and I think the Titans will be very happy with Griffin roaming the intermediate-to-deep middle in a year or two.
Giants take Aaron Ross at No. 20. The pedigree of secondary defenders from Texas can't be denied and New York also desperately needed a young cornerback, so Ross is a terrific pick for them. Arkansas offensive tackle Tony Ugoh or Penn State outside linebacker Paul Posluszny would have been good picks, too. When you have multiple glaring needs, you're bound to address one nicely. Sam Madison and R.W. McQuarters is a shaky veteran corner combination as both are in the late stages of their careers.
Jaguars take Reggie Nelson at No. 21. This is weird: I had the Broncos taking one stud defensive Gator (Moss) here, and I had the Jags taking this stud Gator (Nelson) back at No. 17 before the teams traded. I still get credit for both, right? Nelson was a no-brainer. The Jags stayed in-state to address a major void, both a positional one (safety) and a statistical one (takeaways). Nelson should raise the Jags' playmaking quotient right away.
Quinn to the Cowboys? Um, no. I am a firm believer that you can work on developing only one young quarterback at a time. I would rather to continue to work with Tony Romo, who has considerably more seasoning and, by the way, made the Pro Bowl despite not starting for a whole season.
Browns trade up to take Brady Quinn at No. 22. First, let me applaud the Cowboys for sensing this was the right time to make a deal with Cleveland, right before Kansas City's turn. Getting an extra first-rounder in '08 and an extra second-rounder in '07 is a great coup for Jerry Jones. As for Quinn still going to the Browns, now along with -- instead of instead of -- Joe Thomas, it makes more sense. I'm not completely sold on Quinn starring for Romeo Crennel the way he did for Charlie Weis, but that said, he's a solid hometown team value here.
Chiefs take Dwayne Bowe at No. 23. I don't think Kansas City was necessarily planning on taking a wide receiver, but there's no way they could pass on Bowe, the clear third-best prospect at the position after Johnson and Ginn. Considering their best current wide receiver is a fading LSU guy, Eddie Kennison, they were smart to take a rising LSU guy. Bowe should find room to make plays over the middle with defensive backs also being concerned with Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson.
Patriots take Brandon Meriweather at No. 24. Wow, this is the fourth pick I've gotten right since No. 15. But really, I think it's easier to project picks in the second half of the first round, when there are fewer elite prospects who may have fallen. It was pretty obvious that the Pats would take a safety with one of their two first-round picks, and this is a great pick. They can look beyond Meriweather's character issues because a) Bill Belichick is good at molding everyone as a player and a person and b) Meriweather has the talent to be an immediate hard-hitting starter. Consider him a newer model of Rodney Harrison.
I reminded again why I'm happy that Michael Irvin is no longer on ESPN's draft coverage, because I get this feeling we're about to have another pick from "The U." I'm still dreading, however, the moment when Keyshawn Johnson can comment on the first '07 draft pick from Southern Cal.
Panthers take Jon Beason at No. 25. Well, it is indeed a Hurricane, but I thought it would be tight end Greg Olsen, not Beason. Still I don't think Beason is a bad pick, because he has the speed and athleticism to start immediately. There's a bit of opening on the weakside, and the former Hurricane they have in the middle, Dan Morgan, is always playing -- or sitting -- hurt. With Meriweather and Nelson both gone, Carolina is smart to wait to address safety in a later round.
Cowboys trade up to take Anthony Spencer at No. 26. It seems strange that Dallas a) gave up second-, third- and fifth-rounders for Spencer and b) made the deal with division rival Philadelphia, but the actual pick of Spencer is not strange at all for a Wade Phillips-coached team. Phillips knows the importance of having two fine outside linebackers in the 3-4 with the success he had with both Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips in San Diego. In the same way the Purdue product Phillips complements top pass rusher Merriman, the Purdue product Spencer can do the same to take blocking pressure off DeMarcus Ware.
Saints take Robert Meachem at No. 27. I know Sean Payton loves a dynamic passing game, but he already had that with Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Terrance Copper and the team's leading receiver in 2006, Reggie Bush. If the team were going to go that way, I thought it would be tight end Greg Olsen. But to draft for the team's strongest position makes little sense. The only explanation: Meachem was the best player available, and the cornerback they wanted was long gone. Arkansas corner Chris Houston should have been the pick.
49ers trade up to take Joe Staley at No. 28. Mike Nolan probably was worried that his old team, Baltimore, would take the next best offensive tackle. But I think that's Tony Ugoh, and not Staley. Staley is certainly athletic but is more of a project than Ugoh. And the price of sending a 2008 first-rounder and a '07 fourth-rounder seems way too high for that type of lineman.
Ravens take Ben Grubbs at No. 29. Well, well. I guess Ugoh's stock has somewhat dropped for Baltimore to go away from its biggest offensive line need and draft a guard instead. But really, taking Ugoh would have been for the future, and the Ravens have an open window of winning a Super Bowl now, while Steve McNair still is playing. And Grubbs can start right away at right guard, helping to open holes for Willis McGahee.
Chargers take Craig Davis at No. 30. The selection of Davis completes the top troika of LSU's passing game going in the first round after Russell went to the Raiders and Bowe went to the Chiefs. So there will be plenty of Bayou Bengal reunions in AFC West play this season. Davis may seem like a reach here, but he's exactly what San Diego needs. At 6-1 3/8, 202 with 4.40 speed, he can be the right perimeter big-play threat to support LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson.
Bears take Greg Olsen at No. 31. Finally, this rare athlete goes, and to a team he can significantly help in his first season. A big-time pass-catching tight end is a quarterback's best friend, and after the Super Bowl meltdown, Rex Grossman needs best friends. Olsen, in an offense that already has Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammad and Cedric Benson, should consistently find room to get open against safeties and linebackers.
Colts take Anthony Gonzalez at No. 32. Not to be outdone by the Davis-Bowe combination, Gonzalez makes it two Buckeye wideouts in the first round after Ginn went to the Dolphins way back at No. 9. Gonzalez can do two things for Indy: a) Become an explosive slot receiver to help replace Brandon Stokley and b) Spark their dormant return game. Sure, the Super Bowl champs could have used defensive help, but then again, they are the Super Bowl champs, and they can afford to make a luxury pick.
