Bob's Blog: Turnover Totals

[CCBoy]

Turnover Totals
Posted by Sturminator

http://sturminator.blogspot.com/


Before we completely close the books on the Dallas 2010 season, I wanted to offer some further analysis about what the team did both of the good and bad variety here for a few weeks. I think one of the most important things going on right now at Valley Ranch and other NFL team facilities is the self-scouting and self-evaluation that must come at the end of every season. This is where teams need to look in the mirror and be very honest about what they see.

What needs to be fixed? What players need to go? And what should be the real points of emphasis as the team begins its spring program and get the ball rolling when the players return from the beach in about 6 weeks and the wheels start turning again.

When you talk about points of emphasis on any team, look no further than turnovers. No statistic correlates to winning more than the turnover ratio. And that is true on a game-by-game basis (where the winner of the turnover battle wins 80%+) or on a season basis.

Look at the playoffs: New England (+28), Pittsburgh (+17), Atlanta (+14), Green Bay (+10), Kansas City (+9), Philadelphia (+9), New York Jets (+9), and Baltimore (+8) are 8 of the top 9 teams in turnover differential. The only good turnover team not in the playoffs is Tampa Bay (+9) and I think we can all agree that they exceeded expectations in 2010.

Now, look at the Top 5 picks in the NFL Draft: Carolina (-8), Denver (-9), Buffalo (-17), Cincinnati (-8), and Arizona (-5).

The Cowboys season somehow ended up at Even. I say somehow, because at the halfway point, this seemed to be as lost a cause as the Cowboys year......

 

[CCBoy]

Looking back at this past season, and the emergence of Jason Garrett, I feel these two elements are very important and prominent:

'Tony Romo was the QB for 9 giveaways, and Jon Kitna was the QB for pretty much all of the rest as Stephen McGee did a real nice job of taking care of the football in his 6 Quarters of play.'

'The offense stopped giving the ball away and in the last 8 games committed just 11 giveaways. And without any real strong explanation, the defense generated 20 takeaways in 8 games. For those of you who do not follow this number with the Cowboys, just know that 20 takeaways for an 8 game stretch is beyond out of character for the Cowboys of this era.'

 

[CCBoy]

Coordinator candidates' points track record
January, 11, 2011 Jan 113:47PM CT
By Todd Archer

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/cowboys/print?id=4677097


IRVING, Texas -- Earlier today Tim put up a post regarding the turnover track records of the three potential defensive coordinator candidates in Vic Fangio, Greg Manusky and Paul Pasqualoni.

Tim mentioned that turnovers are the most important stat, next to points. Well, I thought I would go with a points' track record for Fangio, Manusky and Pasqualoni. What is difficult to ascertain is how much say Fangio and Manusky had in the defense with Dom Capers and Mike Nolan serving as head coach in Carolina, Houston and San Francisco.

Fangio - In 11 years in Carolina, Indianapolis and Houston, twice he led defenses that were in the top 10 in points allowed. They came in his first two years with the Panthers in 1995-96. He had three other defenses that finished in the top half of the rankings in points allowed as well. Twice – Indianapolis in 2001 and Houston in ’05 – his defenses allowed the most points in the league.

Manusky – In the last four years with San Francisco, he has had one top-10 defense in points when the Niners allowed 281 points in 2009 to finish fourth. San Francisco allowed 346 points in 2010, good for 16th.

Pasqualoni – In two years with Miami, the Dolphins finished ninth in points (317 in 2008) and 25th (390 in 2009). In his eight-game run as Cowboys coordinator in 2010 Dallas allowed 25.5 points per game, which would have tied for 26th over a full season.

 

[percyhoward]

Orignally Posted by Sturm
And without any real strong explanation, the defense generated 20 takeaways in 8 games. For those of you who do not follow this number with the Cowboys, just know that 20 takeaways for an 8 game stretch is beyond out of character for the Cowboys of this era.

Only if he means the Phillips era.

Ware, Ratliff, James, and Newman all helped the Cowboys get 21 takeaways in an 8-game stretch as recently as Parcells' last season.

 

[btcutter]

Looking back at this past season, and the emergence of Jason Garrett, I feel these two elements are very important and prominent:

'Tony Romo was the QB for 9 giveaways, and Jon Kitna was the QB for pretty much all of the rest as Stephen McGee did a real nice job of taking care of the football in his 6 Quarters of play.'

'The offense stopped giving the ball away and in the last 8 games committed just 11 giveaways. And without any real strong explanation, the defense generated 20 takeaways in 8 games. For those of you who do not follow this number with the Cowboys, just know that 20 takeaways for an 8 game stretch is beyond out of character for the Cowboys of this era.'

After Romo went down, Garrett begin to rely on his running game and accepts punting is ok instead of calling pass plays to pick up 1st downs on 3rd and LONG.
Because we were pass happy during 1st half of the season and were put in 3rd and LONG, Romo had to take more chances to pick up 1st downs and some of that lead to INT, Sack/fumbles.

Moral of the story. It's OK to punt. It's certainly BETTER than giving the ball away. Win the TO battle and you will come out on top more frequent than not.