Bob's Blog: Wednesday Musings - Tendencies

[BBQ101]

Taken From: http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2009/12/wednesday-musings-tendancies.html

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Wednesday Musings - Tendencies


I am always making sure I recognize DC Fanatic for his wonderful work with the video portion of our blog, but I wonder if I mention Shawn from Florida enough. Although I have never met either one of these guys in person, they both are invaluable for the research we attempt to accomplish every day here at Bob's Blog. Shawn calculates much of the raw data that I collect after each down of Cowboys offense and attempts to help me come to some conclusions.

This type of data is much more global in its conclusions, rather than Football 301 which focuses on specific plays.

Therefore, this data is not something I would put out there every week. I think the last time we looked at this was During the Bye Week , then this time during the Thanksgiving break, and finally after the season is over.


Every week, we look at the raw numbers of the personnel packages , but what do they like to do in certain situations? If you are a Defensive Coordinator who is preparing to play the Dallas Cowboys, you would have all of these stats on a chart, so that during the week, you learn what Jason Garrett does and when he does it.

OFFENSE "UNDER CENTER" RESULTS
http://i699.***BLOCKED***/albums/vv351/bigbriquaker/bbweek12/UnderCenter.jpg
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OFFENSE "SHOTGUN" RESULTS:
http://i699.***BLOCKED***/albums/vv351/bigbriquaker/bbweek12/Shotgun.jpg

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Now, I admit that is a ton of data to digest, but I wanted to show it to you to demonstrate the "Shotgun" vs. "Under Center" debate. My issue with Shotgun under Jason Garrett is simply that when they go shotgun, they are too easy to defend. Now, I have been asked a few times by readers why the Saints, Patriots, and Colts can all run way more Shotgun but not be a victim of tendencies, too?

Well, to me, it comes down to quality of your personnel. For instance, in the 1990's, we would always hear that the Cowboys of the Super Bowl dynasties only ran about 7 different plays, but they ran them with such dominance and precision that you couldn't stop it. I would say the Saints, Patriots, and Colts all have execution levels and personnel quality that is such that even though you know what they want to do, you cannot stop it.

With the 2009 Cowboys (and 2008, for that matter), the Cowboys have not demonstrated they can withstand the issues of predictability. When they become predictable, their offensive line pass protection breaks down, receivers cannot get open, and the QB cannot always deliver the ball. The Cowboys have good players, but not dominant players, in my estimation, and therefore, the idea of defensive uncertainty aids their efforts.

And how do we achieve uncertainty in the defense? Run your offense from under center. As the charts above show, when the Tony Romo snaps the ball directly from Andre Gurode, the offense calls 6 run plays and 4 pass plays per 10 snaps. 229 of 364 plays are runs.

However, when they run plays out of the Shotgun, the chart above shows that roughly 9 out of every 10 plays are pass plays. 243 of 278 shotgun plays are passes.

Here are some other findings from the data above:

* - The Cowboys best results in the PASSING game would be 1st and 10 from under center, where the Cowboys have passed 76 times for a 620 yards (a staggering 8.16 yards per attempt). Proving, that you can get the best results when the defense doesn't know you are passing.

* - The Cowboys worst results in the PASSING game would be 3rd down from the Shotgun, when the Cowboys have passed 96 times for just 562 yards (5.85 yards per attempt).

* - Overall, the Cowboys pass better from under center (7.39 yards per attempt) than they do from Shotgun (7.10 ypa).

* - In every scenario, the Cowboys can run the football with great effectiveness. This is a power running football team - forgive my repetition in saying this, but some people do not get it.

I have a ton of other stats, many I might offer tomorrow since we have already analyzed the New York Giants back in Week 2.

 

[Gaede]

Good stuff...Interesting about the % of pass plays in shotgun...9 out of 10.Wow!

 

[theogt]

Jebus, that run/pass ratio difference on first down between under center and shotgun is alarming.

Hopefully that's in large part due to late game drives when we're behind or trying to score and it's already obvious that we're passing. If that difference held true early in games, we might as well hold up neon signs that say, "We're about to pass the ball. Thnx. K. Bye."

 

[cowboyjoe]

super post, thanks;

 

[sonnyboy]

Do you know what all this data says to me?

1) We don't run a lot of shotgun offense. Perhpas mostly on 3rd down passing situations and the 2 min offense.

2) Our overall avg gain per run and pass is probably better than most teams. Of course I already knew this.

3) The deviation in avg gain per play is probably very similar to most teams.
I'd expect our best avg gain per pass on 1st down under center.
I'd also expect our worst avg gain per pass on 3rd down in the shotgun.

This interesting data, but no real revalations to be found.

 

[craig71]

Interesting numbers but they need to be broken down a little more to show a better picture.

Here are a few examples:

What formation was the defense in.

I would be curious to know the down and distance instead of just the down.

Field position is a factor in play calling as well.

Game time situation,are you down by 10 with 4 minutes left in the game.

While those numbers show a glimpse of what is going on they are not nearly defined enough to show tendencies in my opinion.

Craig

 

[YosemiteSam]

Good stuff...Interesting about the % of pass plays in shotgun...9 out of 10.Wow!

Which is why Garrett shouldn't be an OC right now. As Mike Ditka noted, learning football from a player stand point vs a coaching stand point are two completely different things. Garrett had only two years of coaching expereince (only as QB coach at that!) before he became the offensive coordinator for America's most high profile team.

This another one of Jerry's big blunders. The 2007 offensive output of the Cowboys probably had more to do with Tony Sparano's influence than anything Jason Garrett did.

Sparano left and the Cowboys offense has sputtered since. The Cowboys clearly have the talent, they just can't get it rolling consistently. The root of the problem is in-experience from the offensive coordinator.

I like Jason, he is just in way over his head. The man should be working under the tutelage of experienced coaches so that one day, he may be a great coach. Today, he is anything but!

 

[ElGatoGrande]

and then again, if it's a passing situation and the pass-blocking/ blitz-pickup sucks, then Romo needs the extra second or two that being in the shotgun gives.

The overrated OL is the problem

 

[YosemiteSam]

and then again, if it's a passing situation and the pass-blocking/ blitz-pickup sucks, then Romo needs the extra second or two that being in the shotgun gives.

The overrated OL is the problem

You mean pretty much the same line that lit it up in 2007 when they were blitzed? OC and thats my final answer.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Get him, Troy!

 

[CoCo]

You mean pretty much the same line that lit it up in 2007 when they were blitzed? OC and thats my final answer.

If the problem is Garrett as OC and not our O-line then tell me about our 2nd half performance in the 2007 playoff loss to the Giants while Sparano was still here.

Our O-line turned into a sieve when the Giants turned up the heat.

 

[Temo]

Um... Overall, we average 6.94 yards per play from shotgun and 5.99 yards per play under center. And the solution is to use less shotgun?

We average 7.39 Yards per pass under center and 7.1 yards per pass in shotgun (.19 yards per play difference).

And average 5.16 yards per rush under center and 5.83 yards per rush in shotgun (.7 yards per play difference).

And why does he mention the tiny difference in passing on 1st down (.29 yards per pass better under center) and not the huge difference in passing on 2nd down (1.79 yards per pass better in SHOTGUN).

 

[Temo]

Do you know what all this data says to me?

1) We don't run a lot of shotgun offense. Perhpas mostly on 3rd down passing situations and the 2 min offense.

2) Our overall avg gain per run and pass is probably better than most teams. Of course I already knew this.

3) The deviation in avg gain per play is probably very similar to most teams.
I'd expect our best avg gain per pass on 1st down under center.
I'd also expect our worst avg gain per pass on 3rd down in the shotgun.

This interesting data, but no real revalations to be found.

Agree with all of this.

Of course passing yards per play in 3rd down from shotgun will be down... we go shotgun on 3rd and long when everyone knows that pass will be coming regardless! Otherwise fans would be complaining about running "give up draws" on 3rd and 10.

 

[YosemiteSam]

If the problem is Garrett as OC and not our O-line then tell me about our 2nd half performance in the 2007 playoff loss to the Giants while Sparano was still here.

Our O-line turned into a sieve when the Giants turned up the heat.

Look back. There were several causes for that. Look at my .sig. Wade is a great DC, but he blows *** as a head coach and getting and keeping his players prepared.

Now, YOU tell me why the Giants were able to do the same thing to the 18-0 New England Patriots? The team what was supposed to be un-beatable.

Give the Giants some credit too. Their defense earned that Superbowl by going through Dallas, Green Bay, and New England.

 

[aikemirv]

What this tells me is that we should pass on 1st down from under center more often.

Otherwise, everything else is based on down/distance and defensive formation. The fact that we run so little from shotgun surprises anyone?

Our offensive prod. on 1st down passing from under center versus passing from the shotgun is almost identical but you really need a lot more information for any of this to be useful, IMO.

 

[malbis030347]

I wish there was someway the Redheaded genius could see these terrific analysis and possibly learn something from it....anyone know how to email Jerry or JG?...oh yeah, the coach too--Wade ?

 

[Temo]

What this tells me is that we should pass on 1st down from under center more often.

Otherwise, everything else is based on down/distance and defensive formation. The fact that we run so little from shotgun surprises anyone?

Our offensive prod. on 1st down passing from under center versus passing from the shotgun is almost identical but you really need a lot more information for any of this to be useful, IMO.

Also that we should be passing from shotgun a ton more on 2nd down, apparently (not mentioned in article).

 

[Apollo Creed]

13-3 errrr 8-3.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

If the problem is Garrett as OC and not our O-line then tell me about our 2nd half performance in the 2007 playoff loss to the Giants while Sparano was still here.

Our O-line turned into a sieve when the Giants turned up the heat.

Exactly, the OL failure(by penalty or by getting schooled) is what blew that playoff game,,, along with some horrible officiating.

 

[kramskoi]

Look back. There were several causes for that. Look at my .sig. Wade is a great DC, but he blows *** as a head coach and getting and keeping his players prepared.

Now, YOU tell me why the Giants were able to do the same thing to the 18-0 New England Patriots? The team what was supposed to be un-beatable.

Give the Giants some credit too. Their defense earned that Superbowl by going through Dallas, Green Bay, and New England.

...in regards to the shotgun offense, it should be noted that in the 43 year history of the Superbowl only once has a winning team ever passed more than 60% of the total snaps...the 1999 "GSOT" St. Louis Rams in SB 34 against Tennessee...they rushed only 20% of the total plays run...all other winners rushed 40.6% and greater...

...this only magnifies the need to have a more balanced offense...even NE has never been less than 42.6% rushing in all of their superbowl wins...in their loss to the Giants, they rushed only 25% of the total snaps...