percyhoward
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The "differential" is simply the offense's number minus the defense's number.
The Cowboys' breakdown after 10 games, 2014 vs 2013:
2014 (games 1-10) W 7 L 3
7th in points-per-drive differential (Off 7th, Def 10th)
6th in pass rating differential (Off 6th, Def 12th)
2013 (games 1-10) W 5 L 5
17th in points-per-drive differential (Off 9th Def 27th)
11th in pass rating differential (Off 7th Def 23rd)
2013 (games 11-16)
Last year, the offense finished the season strong, as Dallas averaged 27.5 points in each of the last six games, and moved up from 9th to 4th in points per drive But the defense gave up an average of 29 points in those games and dropped from 27th to 30th. The final differential ranked Dallas at 17th.
In pass rating over the final six games, the offense held at 7th, while the defense allowed 110+ ratings to McCown, Flynn, and Foles, and saw their rating drop from 23rd to 26th. Their final differential ranked the Cowboys at 18th.
2014 (games 11-16)
The Cowboys have three games remaining against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, after having only had three such games in the first ten. The defensive performance in the three games played so far makes for an interesting study, small though the sample may be. So let's get to the good stuff.
Defense vs. playoff-caliber teams
New Orleans 10 drives, 17 points 1.7 PPD 67.9% DSR (19/28)
Seattle 10 drives, 16 points 1.6 PPD 47.0% DSR (8/17)
Arizona 10 drives, 28 points 2.8 PPD 77.8% DSR (21/27)
PPD is points per drive allowed by the defense. DSR is the percentage of down series that resulted in a first down for the opponent. These are two of the best defensive metrics because of their strong correlation to wins. (Pass rating is also right up there.)
Right now, the Bills lead the league in defensive DSR at 65.5%. The Cowboys' 67.9% performance against the Saints (themselves the league leaders in offensive DSR) would rank 7th in the NFL for an entire season. The 47.0% against Seattle is off the charts.
In PPD for the season, the Cowboys' defense ranks 10th, allowing 1.8 points per drive. The performances against the Saints and Seahawks would have been good against average teams, and are especially impressive against these two offenses. The Arizona game, not so much. But the point is, our strength of schedule up to now doesn't explain away our ranking.
Here's a more detailed breakdown of how the defense performed in the three games combined. It's a mixed bag, at first glance. The rankings are where that number would rank league-wide for the season so far.
vs. NO, Sea, Ari
30 drives, 61 points
2.03 points per drive (20th)
7 TD
4 FG
5 takeaways (16.7% - 5th)
11 punts (37% - 25th)
9 three-and-out's (30% - 4th)
DSR 48/72 (66.7% - 5th)
PPD isn't good, although for quality of opponent, probably to be expected. What jumps out is the discrepancy between points allowed and drive success rate. A defense that gets off the field on 1/3 of all down series shouldn't be giving up so many points, unless it was put into bad positions by its offense and/or special teams. Sure enough, when you include only the 19 opponents' drives that began inside their own 35-yard line, the defense was outstanding in these three games.
vs. NO, Sea, Ari
(Drive began inside own 35)
19 drives, 20 points
1.05 points per drive (1st)
2 TD (10.5% - 1st)
2 FG
4 takeaways (21% - 1st)
10 punts (53% - 8th)
5 three-and-out's (26% - N.A.)
DSR 33/52 (63.5% - N.A.)
The above rankings are for all drives league-wide that began inside the offense's own 35-yard line. When these opposing offenses did not have the advantage of good field position, our defense shut them down. Only two touchdowns and two field goals in 19 drives. This is not anything to be expected, from any defense, much less one that ranked in the bottom 5 in all the important categories in 2013. And this was against playoff-quality opposition.
It suggests (to me, anyway) that if the offense can hold onto the ball and just play their game, at worst get a couple of first downs before punting, and not put the defense into bad positions, maybe this team can go places.
The Cowboys' breakdown after 10 games, 2014 vs 2013:
2014 (games 1-10) W 7 L 3
7th in points-per-drive differential (Off 7th, Def 10th)
6th in pass rating differential (Off 6th, Def 12th)
2013 (games 1-10) W 5 L 5
17th in points-per-drive differential (Off 9th Def 27th)
11th in pass rating differential (Off 7th Def 23rd)
2013 (games 11-16)
Last year, the offense finished the season strong, as Dallas averaged 27.5 points in each of the last six games, and moved up from 9th to 4th in points per drive But the defense gave up an average of 29 points in those games and dropped from 27th to 30th. The final differential ranked Dallas at 17th.
In pass rating over the final six games, the offense held at 7th, while the defense allowed 110+ ratings to McCown, Flynn, and Foles, and saw their rating drop from 23rd to 26th. Their final differential ranked the Cowboys at 18th.
2014 (games 11-16)
The Cowboys have three games remaining against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, after having only had three such games in the first ten. The defensive performance in the three games played so far makes for an interesting study, small though the sample may be. So let's get to the good stuff.
Defense vs. playoff-caliber teams
New Orleans 10 drives, 17 points 1.7 PPD 67.9% DSR (19/28)
Seattle 10 drives, 16 points 1.6 PPD 47.0% DSR (8/17)
Arizona 10 drives, 28 points 2.8 PPD 77.8% DSR (21/27)
PPD is points per drive allowed by the defense. DSR is the percentage of down series that resulted in a first down for the opponent. These are two of the best defensive metrics because of their strong correlation to wins. (Pass rating is also right up there.)
Right now, the Bills lead the league in defensive DSR at 65.5%. The Cowboys' 67.9% performance against the Saints (themselves the league leaders in offensive DSR) would rank 7th in the NFL for an entire season. The 47.0% against Seattle is off the charts.
In PPD for the season, the Cowboys' defense ranks 10th, allowing 1.8 points per drive. The performances against the Saints and Seahawks would have been good against average teams, and are especially impressive against these two offenses. The Arizona game, not so much. But the point is, our strength of schedule up to now doesn't explain away our ranking.
Here's a more detailed breakdown of how the defense performed in the three games combined. It's a mixed bag, at first glance. The rankings are where that number would rank league-wide for the season so far.
vs. NO, Sea, Ari
30 drives, 61 points
2.03 points per drive (20th)
7 TD
4 FG
5 takeaways (16.7% - 5th)
11 punts (37% - 25th)
9 three-and-out's (30% - 4th)
DSR 48/72 (66.7% - 5th)
PPD isn't good, although for quality of opponent, probably to be expected. What jumps out is the discrepancy between points allowed and drive success rate. A defense that gets off the field on 1/3 of all down series shouldn't be giving up so many points, unless it was put into bad positions by its offense and/or special teams. Sure enough, when you include only the 19 opponents' drives that began inside their own 35-yard line, the defense was outstanding in these three games.
vs. NO, Sea, Ari
(Drive began inside own 35)
19 drives, 20 points
1.05 points per drive (1st)
2 TD (10.5% - 1st)
2 FG
4 takeaways (21% - 1st)
10 punts (53% - 8th)
5 three-and-out's (26% - N.A.)
DSR 33/52 (63.5% - N.A.)
The above rankings are for all drives league-wide that began inside the offense's own 35-yard line. When these opposing offenses did not have the advantage of good field position, our defense shut them down. Only two touchdowns and two field goals in 19 drives. This is not anything to be expected, from any defense, much less one that ranked in the bottom 5 in all the important categories in 2013. And this was against playoff-quality opposition.
It suggests (to me, anyway) that if the offense can hold onto the ball and just play their game, at worst get a couple of first downs before punting, and not put the defense into bad positions, maybe this team can go places.
