Bottom-line stats (updated)

[percyhoward]

W-L is the bottom-line stat, but the Cowboys have improved over 2012 in three other good ones that correlate highly with successful seasons.

Since 2010, there have been 25 teams that finished the season ranked among the top 12 in pass rating differential, turnover differential, and points-per-drive differential. All 25 teams had records of 10-6 or better.

2012 GB Sea SF Atl Was NE Hou Cin Bal Chi
2011 GB NE Hou SF Det Bal Atl
2010 GB NE Pit Bal Chi Atl Phi TB

Through 8 games, Dallas still ranks among the top 12 in all three categories. Here's how it breaks down, with comparisons to last year.
Pass Rating
2013
offense 6th
defense 18th
differential 6th

2012
offense 9th
defense 29th
differential 18th

Give/Take
2013
offense (give) 8th
defense (take) 3rd
differential 2nd

2012
offense (give) 25th
defense (take) 29th
differential 27th

Points Per Drive
2013
offense 9th
defense 19th
differential 12th

2012
offense 10th
defense 26th
differential 20th

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Am I seriously the first person to comment on this? Wow.

Excellent job, as always! I wonder if that Points Per Drive stat is trending down? Because I would guess it is and we're right on the borderline.

This certainly makes more sense than saying we're the worst defense in the league because the NFL stupidly defines competence by yards gained/given up only.

 

[Deep_South]

Another metric improved. Dallas Cowboys points per game through 8 games:

2013 - 28.8
2012 - 18.75

2013 number from nfl.com stats. 2012 number generated the old-fashioned way - look at Cowboys' points scored in 1st 8 games last year and average. 28.8 is good for 4th in the NFL.

 

[pugilist]

that give / take differential is encouraging.. i would like for the defense to stop the hemorrhaging in the yds allowed dept. but if they can keep getting turnovers i can live with it

 

[fanfromvirginia]

that give / take differential is encouraging.. i would like for the defense to stop the hemorrhaging in the yds allowed dept. but if they can keep getting turnovers i can live with it

I don't know that I can live with it. Yes, these stats make it clear that as a team we're doing well (within these categories) but the defense is mostly dragging us down. Yes, our take aways are great but our giveaways are also quite good, which is a huge turnaround from recent years.

This defense isn't good. It's not terrible, and certainly not the worst, as most in here would have it but it's not good either. They've allowed too many yards and points for that to be the case.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Another metric improved. Dallas Cowboys points per game through 8 games:

2013 - 28.8
2012 - 18.75

2013 number from nfl.com stats. 2012 number generated the old-fashioned way - look at Cowboys' points scored in 1st 8 games last year and average. 28.8 is good for 4th in the NFL.

I think we're just not clutch. When we need the offense to score the most, they don't. And we need the defense to hold the most, they don't. I would love to see these stats broken down by quarter. My suspicion is these numbers are built on early gains and weighed greatly down by late collapses.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

W-L is the bottom-line stat, but the Cowboys have improved over 2012 in three other good ones that correlate highly with successful seasons.

Since 2010, there have been 25 teams that finished the season ranked among the top 12 in pass rating differential, turnover differential, and points-per-drive differential. All 25 teams had records of 10-6 or better.

2012 GB Sea SF Atl Was NE Hou Cin Bal Chi
2011 GB NE Hou SF Det Bal Atl
2010 GB NE Pit Bal Chi Atl Phi TB

Through 8 games, Dallas still ranks among the top 12 in all three categories. Here's how it breaks down, with comparisons to last year.
Pass Rating
2013
offense 6th
defense 18th
differential 6th

2012
offense 9th
defense 29th
differential 18th

Give/Take
2013
offense (give) 8th
defense (take) 3rd
differential 2nd

2012
offense (give) 25th
defense (take) 29th
differential 27th

Points Per Drive
2013
offense 9th
defense 19th
differential 12th

2012
offense 10th
defense 26th
differential 20th

Any way to break these figures down by quarter?

 

[dropdeadfred5]

stats mean squat vs won/loss

and the bottom line is that when it matters we do not get it done on O or D

 

[dstovall5]

W-L is the bottom-line stat, but the Cowboys have improved over 2012 in three other good ones that correlate highly with successful seasons.

Since 2010, there have been 25 teams that finished the season ranked among the top 12 in pass rating differential, turnover differential, and points-per-drive differential. All 25 teams had records of 10-6 or better.

Great, another perfect win/lose stat that we'll somehow manage to be the ONE team to screw it up.

Good research though, it definitely is interesting looking at stats in different views and seeing all the patterns.

 

[percyhoward]

Great, another perfect win/lose stat that we'll somehow manage to be the ONE team to screw it up.

It's uncanny how this team does tend to do that.

Teams that allow 600+ yards in a game are 0-31, but if the Lions kick the FG instead of going for it on 4th down in the 1st quarter, the record would be 1-30.

 

[Picksix]

Great, another perfect win/lose stat that we'll somehow manage to be the ONE team to screw it up.

Good research though, it definitely is interesting looking at stats in different views and seeing all the patterns.

Was about to make that same point. We do tend to be pretty good at bucking those trends.

 

[percyhoward]

Any way to break these figures down by quarter?

Done the quick way (PFR's drive finder and play finder), so not exactly the same stats in every case, and some rankings are impossible to get, but close:

4th quarter or OT
percentage of drives that end in scores
2013
offense 11th
defense 25th

2012
offense 2nd
defense 19th

percentage of drives that end in turnovers
2013
offense 11th
defense 9th

2012
offense 15th
defense 11th

pass rating in 4th quarter or OT
min 5 att/game
2013
offense 2nd
defense 78.0

2012
offense 6th
defense 93.3

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Done the quick way (PFR's drive finder and play finder), so not exactly the same stats in every case, and some rankings are impossible to get, but close:
4th quarter or OT
percentage of drives that end in scores
2013
offense 11th
defense 25th

2012
offense 2nd
defense 19th

percentage of drives that end in turnovers
2013
offense 11th
defense 9th

2012
offense 15th
defense 11th

pass rating in 4th quarter or OT
min 5 att/game
2013
offense 2nd
defense 78.0

2012
offense 6th
defense 93.3

Thanks!! This is not what I was expecting at all.

 

[pugilist]

I don't know that I can live with it. Yes, these stats make it clear that as a team we're doing well (within these categories) but the defense is mostly dragging us down. Yes, our take aways are great but our giveaways are also quite good, which is a huge turnaround from recent years.

This defense isn't good. It's not terrible, and certainly not the worst, as most in here would have it but it's not good either. They've allowed too many yards and points for that to be the case.

agreed, my apologies if my post was implying that the defense is anywhere close to good. couldn't be more further from the truth

 

[Kevinicus]

How exactly is the differential determined?

 

[percyhoward]

How exactly is the differential determined?

Right now, our team pass rating is 101.7, and opposing teams have a rating of 88.0 against us. Our differential is +13.7.