BPA: Optimizing buyer's remourse?

[dwmyers]

http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2011/05/16/bpa-drafting-as-a-way-of-optimizing-buyers-remourse/

Excerpt:

Consider this scenario: you have three players in the middle rounds you are considering, whose “true career value” is about the same. We’ll assume drafting is an efficient market for now, so our estimation of the value of these picks is a normally distributed estimate whose mean is based off their true career value. Which one of these men do we draft? We draft the player whose value we have overestimated the most. Consequently, we draft the player most likely to underachieve our expectations.