BQA Index

[Iago33]

In thinking of evaluating a quarterback in any given round, I thought of how you might assess the relative value. I assume all teams do something like this, but I wanted to get your thoughts on what you’ve heard and how you would tweak it. In addition to qualitative data on any position at any given draft pick, you should be able to have quantitative data available for the position given your tiers, draft board, and rating system.

BQA (Best Quarterback Available) Index

• BPA drop off rating: a quantitative rating showing the relative drop off between the Best Player Available and the Best Quarterback Available.
• Next BQA drop off rating: showing the relative drop off between the BQA and the next best quarterback on your ranking.
• BQA differential: the difference between the ratings of the BQA and the next few (let’s say 3) best quarterbacks available after that quarterback.
• BQA/BPA differential: the difference between the BQA differential and the BPA differential (the difference between the next BPA and the next 3 BPA). Of course, you could run down each differential—for example, the difference between the BQA differential and the BTA differential (Best available tackle, for example, if the BPA is a tackle).

I acknowledge that my terminology may not be the most precise, as I don’t have actual statistics training (as opposed to on-the-job experience). I’m just putting this out there to see what else might be useful. I also acknowledge that this may be anathema to the pure-BPAers.

 

[cnuball21]

I don’t know what you want to call it but I can guarantee teams desperately reach on QBs in hopes they strike gold.

Levis and Richardson are about to be taken in the 1st round and they are not 2 of the 32 best players in the draft.

 

[xwalker]

In thinking of evaluating a quarterback in any given round, I thought of how you might assess the relative value. I assume all teams do something like this, but I wanted to get your thoughts on what you’ve heard and how you would tweak it. In addition to qualitative data on any position at any given draft pick, you should be able to have quantitative data available for the position given your tiers, draft board, and rating system.

BQA (Best Quarterback Available) Index

• BPA drop off rating: a quantitative rating showing the relative drop off between the Best Player Available and the Best Quarterback Available.
• Next BQA drop off rating: showing the relative drop off between the BQA and the next best quarterback on your ranking.
• BQA differential: the difference between the ratings of the BQA and the next few (let’s say 3) best quarterbacks available after that quarterback.
• BQA/BPA differential: the difference between the BQA differential and the BPA differential (the difference between the next BPA and the next 3 BPA). Of course, you could run down each differential—for example, the difference between the BQA differential and the BTA differential (Best available tackle, for example, if the BPA is a tackle).

I acknowledge that my terminology may not be the most precise, as I don’t have actual statistics training (as opposed to on-the-job experience). I’m just putting this out there to see what else might be useful. I also acknowledge that this may be anathema to the pure-BPAers.

Drafting is more about probability of success than about pure talent. Ready-now also pushes players up the draft board.

This is especially true with QBs.
- There are QBs in the mid/late rounds every year that have enough talent but for various reasons have a low probability of success relative to early picks.
- Small college, lack of surround talent in college, etc. made the probability of a team's evaluation of the player lower.
- Some later round players, especially QBs have plenty of traits but are not ready-now type playes.

My opinion:
- If drafting a QB late, get one with all of the required physical attributes.
- A Cooper Rush type might be more ready-now, but you're never going to develop a talent limited QB into an elite player.

 

[Iago33]

Drafting is more about probability of success than about pure talent. Ready-now also pushes players up the draft board.

This is especially true with QBs.
- There are QBs in the mid/late rounds every year that have enough talent but for various reasons have a low probability of success relative to early picks.
- Small college, lack of surround talent in college, etc. made the probability of a team's evaluation of the player lower.
- Some later round players, especially QBs have plenty of traits but are not ready-now type playes.

My opinion:
- If drafting a QB late, get one with all of the required physical attributes.
- A Cooper Rush type might be more ready-now, but you're never going to develop a talent limited QB into an elite player.

I would think you would be able to take all of that into account with quantitative ratings.

 

[calicowboy54]

In thinking of evaluating a quarterback in any given round, I thought of how you might assess the relative value. I assume all teams do something like this, but I wanted to get your thoughts on what you’ve heard and how you would tweak it. In addition to qualitative data on any position at any given draft pick, you should be able to have quantitative data available for the position given your tiers, draft board, and rating system.

BQA (Best Quarterback Available) Index

• BPA drop off rating: a quantitative rating showing the relative drop off between the Best Player Available and the Best Quarterback Available.
• Next BQA drop off rating: showing the relative drop off between the BQA and the next best quarterback on your ranking.
• BQA differential: the difference between the ratings of the BQA and the next few (let’s say 3) best quarterbacks available after that quarterback.
• BQA/BPA differential: the difference between the BQA differential and the BPA differential (the difference between the next BPA and the next 3 BPA). Of course, you could run down each differential—for example, the difference between the BQA differential and the BTA differential (Best available tackle, for example, if the BPA is a tackle).

I acknowledge that my terminology may not be the most precise, as I don’t have actual statistics training (as opposed to on-the-job experience). I’m just putting this out there to see what else might be useful. I also acknowledge that this may be anathema to the pure-BPAers.

using this index how would you rate

JAKEHAENER​

Be a three-year starter = YES Be a senior in college = YES Graduate from college = YES Start 30 games = YES (38) Win 23 games = YES Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio = YES Complete at least 60% of passes thrown = YES

Quote:
"He has proven to play through injury and is always at his best when his team needs him most.

Overall, if Haener were bigger and stronger we would be talking about a sure-fire top-10 pick,"

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/jake-haener-d9059b47-4403-4237-bcdf-b79d00a69c48/
Pros:

• Instincts, accuracy, touch
• Competitive toughness
• Football IQ
• mobile
• Broke Derek and David Carr Fresno State records.

Cons:

• Lack of size
• Not Elite arm strength
• Age

 

[gtb1943]

using this index how would you rate

JAKEHAENER​

Be a three-year starter = YES Be a senior in college = YES Graduate from college = YES Start 30 games = YES (38) Win 23 games = YES Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio = YES Complete at least 60% of passes thrown = YES

Quote:
"He has proven to play through injury and is always at his best when his team needs him most.

Overall, if Haener were bigger and stronger we would be talking about a sure-fire top-10 pick,"

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/jake-haener-d9059b47-4403-4237-bcdf-b79d00a69c48/
Pros:

• Instincts, accuracy, touch
• Competitive toughness
• Football IQ
• mobile
• Broke Derek and David Carr Fresno State records.

Cons:

• Lack of size
• Not Elite arm strength
• Age

Age for a QB really matters less than any other player. So to me worrying about age in a QB coming out of college is stupid.

How many QBs in the HOF had 'elite' arm strength. That I can remember right now Brett Favre and John Elway. Joe Montana was dinged in the draft for size and arm strength. That really mattered, didn't it. Brady did not have elite arm strength. Peyton Manning always had marginal arm strength.
ALL too many QBs are drafted because they had big arms and NOTHING ELSE. Jeff George, Jumongus, just to name a couple.

As regards size, yeah someone below 6' is very unlikely to have real success. And too thin and fragile is a thought as well.
But that is all as regards size.


What really matters with a QB is what is between the ears and that is hardest of all to measure but that is where you put your effort.

All else to a certain extent is meaningless if the guy cannot handle the game mentally

 

[Iago33]

using this index how would you rate

JAKEHAENER​

Be a three-year starter = YES Be a senior in college = YES Graduate from college = YES Start 30 games = YES (38) Win 23 games = YES Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio = YES Complete at least 60% of passes thrown = YES

Quote:
"He has proven to play through injury and is always at his best when his team needs him most.

Overall, if Haener were bigger and stronger we would be talking about a sure-fire top-10 pick,"

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/jake-haener-d9059b47-4403-4237-bcdf-b79d00a69c48/
Pros:

• Instincts, accuracy, touch
• Competitive toughness
• Football IQ
• mobile
• Broke Derek and David Carr Fresno State records.

Cons:

• Lack of size
• Not Elite arm strength
• Age

I would think all of that would be accounted in the initial ranking of QBs (including tiers and other factors that set up a board). My index would be post-board set up. How do you measure the relative value of picking a QB as opposed to BPA or other positions. Thanks for the discussion.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

In thinking of evaluating a quarterback in any given round, I thought of how you might assess the relative value. I assume all teams do something like this, but I wanted to get your thoughts on what you’ve heard and how you would tweak it. In addition to qualitative data on any position at any given draft pick, you should be able to have quantitative data available for the position given your tiers, draft board, and rating system.

BQA (Best Quarterback Available) Index

• BPA drop off rating: a quantitative rating showing the relative drop off between the Best Player Available and the Best Quarterback Available.
• Next BQA drop off rating: showing the relative drop off between the BQA and the next best quarterback on your ranking.
• BQA differential: the difference between the ratings of the BQA and the next few (let’s say 3) best quarterbacks available after that quarterback.
• BQA/BPA differential: the difference between the BQA differential and the BPA differential (the difference between the next BPA and the next 3 BPA). Of course, you could run down each differential—for example, the difference between the BQA differential and the BTA differential (Best available tackle, for example, if the BPA is a tackle).

I acknowledge that my terminology may not be the most precise, as I don’t have actual statistics training (as opposed to on-the-job experience). I’m just putting this out there to see what else might be useful. I also acknowledge that this may be anathema to the pure-BPAers.

Applaud the effort.