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The Dallas Cowboys have enjoyed great production from Jason Witten, who will no doubt end up in Canton some day. But, if you heard that the Cowboys had traded Witten to another team in exchange for a 24-year-old tight end with all the same attributes, how would you react?
Before you answer, let's say that this younger version of Witten had the exact same height, weight, speed, receiving ability, blocking ability, durability—everything. He even looked the same in a uniform, so Romo would have no trouble locking in on him.
Wouldn’t you be excited that Dallas had secured a Witten-like production for at least another eight years?
Now let me add this one wrinkle: What if this tight end only caught a touchdown pass once every 18 receptions?
For comparison's sake, Rob Gronkowski scores about every five times he catches a pass. Jimmy Graham scores about every eight times he makes a catch. In fact, there are many, many tight ends in the league who score around once every eight catches. But this guy Dallas is trading Witten for will only score about once every 18 grabs, and he will be this way throughout his career.
Now let me add this: If Dallas makes this trade, Romo will throw to this new tight end just as frequently as he ever did to Witten. In 2012, for example, Romo threw more to Witten than he did Dez Bryant or anyone else. It was the same in 2011 and 2010, and so on.
So ask yourself this question: Will the Dallas offense be able to improve its scoring if it makes this trade? Will the scoring get worse? Will it stay the same?
Do you have your answer? Are you committed to it? Good.
So here is the twist to this article: Jason Witten has the same scoring average as our imaginary new tight end. One TD about every 18 catches over the course of his career. Last year, the average was even worse than that, he averaged one TD per 37 receptions. A perfect example of this was last year's game against the Giants in which Witten caught 18 passes, yet had zero TD catches. Dallas lost that game as well.
And that is what is wrong with the Dallas offense. Dallas can get down the field. It can move the chains thanks in large part to the Witten-Romo connection.
But when you use a possession receiver to move down the field, you limit the catches that break-away receivers make, and this severely limits the break-away touchdowns your offense makes.
No, Dallas isn't going to trade Jason Witten. My point in this hypothetical was to get you to take an objective look at the problem this offense faces by feeding the ball so consistently to a receiver who has no break-away speed and scores somewhat infrequently.
For many offenses, a significant percentage of their touchdowns are scored from outside of the red zone. There is more space to defend and there are more options for the offense. Break-away receivers do better when the defensive backs are aware of all the real estate behind them.
But if your offense funnels a large percentage of its passes to a possession receiver who can’t take it to the house, then your offense will need to flawlessly execute long drives and be fantastic in the red zone.
And that is hard to do. Dallas doesn’t do it very often, which is precisely why Dallas is once again playing 500 ball.
The Cowboys have a number of young potential weapons-in-the-making that they need to be developing in order to improve their scoring as the season rolls along. They are listed below, together with their targets/receptions for the season thus far.
Receiver Targets/Receptions
Cole Beasley 4/4
Lance Dunbar* 1/1
James Hanna 5/4
Dwayne Harris 7/5
Terrance Williams 15/12
Gavin Escobar 5/3
Total: 37/29=.78 Catch Rate
* Dunbar is a RB but has great potential as a Daren Sproles-like weapon catching the ball
Jason Witten 33/21=.63 Catch Rate
Note that Witten has nearly as many targets as the six other receiving options combined.
Also note that the other receiving options have a much better combined catch rate this year than Witten does.
Wouldn't it make sense for Romo to throw more to these other receivers?
Now, it should be noted that most of the time, these other targets aren’t even on the field. But that is part of the point that I am making. Looking at the numbers, these other players have been making their catches and doing their job when called upon. They just aren’t called upon often enough.
All of these other (non-Witten) players, except Escobar, possess enough speed to take a five-yard catch and break off a touchdown run. And Escobar has the length and ball skills to be a red-zone weapon.
Part of playing winning football is continuing to feed the players who are capable of scoring on any given play. Guys like Peyton Manning figured that out a long time ago. But in Dallas, the offensive production continues to stagnate.
The blame for this poor production rests squarely on the coaching staff and Romo for not getting the ball to these faster, more dangerous weapons.
The Cowboys only hope for becoming a force in the NFL in the near future rests upon developing these new, young weapons. You can see from the numbers that they are committing to developing Williams, which is good. But their inability to overcome their Witten “addiction” is seriously hindering their ability to become a dangerous offense with multiple weapons.
On Sunday, Dallas fans will witness first-hand what a functional offense with multiple weapons can do to a defense. Unfortunately, that offense belongs to the Denver Broncos. Hopefully, Romo, Bill Callahan and Jason Garrett will be taking notes on film day.
Read more Dallas Cowboys news on BleacherReport.com
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Before you answer, let's say that this younger version of Witten had the exact same height, weight, speed, receiving ability, blocking ability, durability—everything. He even looked the same in a uniform, so Romo would have no trouble locking in on him.
Wouldn’t you be excited that Dallas had secured a Witten-like production for at least another eight years?
Now let me add this one wrinkle: What if this tight end only caught a touchdown pass once every 18 receptions?
For comparison's sake, Rob Gronkowski scores about every five times he catches a pass. Jimmy Graham scores about every eight times he makes a catch. In fact, there are many, many tight ends in the league who score around once every eight catches. But this guy Dallas is trading Witten for will only score about once every 18 grabs, and he will be this way throughout his career.
Now let me add this: If Dallas makes this trade, Romo will throw to this new tight end just as frequently as he ever did to Witten. In 2012, for example, Romo threw more to Witten than he did Dez Bryant or anyone else. It was the same in 2011 and 2010, and so on.
So ask yourself this question: Will the Dallas offense be able to improve its scoring if it makes this trade? Will the scoring get worse? Will it stay the same?
Do you have your answer? Are you committed to it? Good.
So here is the twist to this article: Jason Witten has the same scoring average as our imaginary new tight end. One TD about every 18 catches over the course of his career. Last year, the average was even worse than that, he averaged one TD per 37 receptions. A perfect example of this was last year's game against the Giants in which Witten caught 18 passes, yet had zero TD catches. Dallas lost that game as well.
And that is what is wrong with the Dallas offense. Dallas can get down the field. It can move the chains thanks in large part to the Witten-Romo connection.
But when you use a possession receiver to move down the field, you limit the catches that break-away receivers make, and this severely limits the break-away touchdowns your offense makes.
No, Dallas isn't going to trade Jason Witten. My point in this hypothetical was to get you to take an objective look at the problem this offense faces by feeding the ball so consistently to a receiver who has no break-away speed and scores somewhat infrequently.
For many offenses, a significant percentage of their touchdowns are scored from outside of the red zone. There is more space to defend and there are more options for the offense. Break-away receivers do better when the defensive backs are aware of all the real estate behind them.
But if your offense funnels a large percentage of its passes to a possession receiver who can’t take it to the house, then your offense will need to flawlessly execute long drives and be fantastic in the red zone.
And that is hard to do. Dallas doesn’t do it very often, which is precisely why Dallas is once again playing 500 ball.
The Cowboys have a number of young potential weapons-in-the-making that they need to be developing in order to improve their scoring as the season rolls along. They are listed below, together with their targets/receptions for the season thus far.
Receiver Targets/Receptions
Cole Beasley 4/4
Lance Dunbar* 1/1
James Hanna 5/4
Dwayne Harris 7/5
Terrance Williams 15/12
Gavin Escobar 5/3
Total: 37/29=.78 Catch Rate
* Dunbar is a RB but has great potential as a Daren Sproles-like weapon catching the ball
Jason Witten 33/21=.63 Catch Rate
Note that Witten has nearly as many targets as the six other receiving options combined.
Also note that the other receiving options have a much better combined catch rate this year than Witten does.
Wouldn't it make sense for Romo to throw more to these other receivers?
Now, it should be noted that most of the time, these other targets aren’t even on the field. But that is part of the point that I am making. Looking at the numbers, these other players have been making their catches and doing their job when called upon. They just aren’t called upon often enough.
All of these other (non-Witten) players, except Escobar, possess enough speed to take a five-yard catch and break off a touchdown run. And Escobar has the length and ball skills to be a red-zone weapon.
Part of playing winning football is continuing to feed the players who are capable of scoring on any given play. Guys like Peyton Manning figured that out a long time ago. But in Dallas, the offensive production continues to stagnate.
The blame for this poor production rests squarely on the coaching staff and Romo for not getting the ball to these faster, more dangerous weapons.
The Cowboys only hope for becoming a force in the NFL in the near future rests upon developing these new, young weapons. You can see from the numbers that they are committing to developing Williams, which is good. But their inability to overcome their Witten “addiction” is seriously hindering their ability to become a dangerous offense with multiple weapons.
On Sunday, Dallas fans will witness first-hand what a functional offense with multiple weapons can do to a defense. Unfortunately, that offense belongs to the Denver Broncos. Hopefully, Romo, Bill Callahan and Jason Garrett will be taking notes on film day.
Read more Dallas Cowboys news on BleacherReport.com
Continue reading...