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One step at a time, right? The Dallas Cowboys will tell you they're only thinking about the Indianapolis Colts, who are their next opponent. They've yet to clinch a playoff spot, let alone the NFC East title, and they won't likely do so unless they win each of their final two games.
But that doesn't mean us non-Cowboys can't consider the possibilities beyond that. So if you fear a jinx or don't want to allow your mind to run wild about a fanciful January when the team's focus remains on December, you're welcome to quit reading right now.
If you're still here, this is the truth: Dallas has every reason to believe it can win the Super Bowl this year.
I know it's difficult to fathom, especially considering how low the preseason expectations were, but that's the beauty of this league. We were wrong about that defense, believing it was in line to have a historically bad season when in reality Rod Marinelli's unit has been mediocre.
In 2014, mediocre defenses can win championships.
The point is, for the most part, the Cowboys have proven they're strong in the areas which require strength to win in January these days and that they're weak in a lot of the areas in which teams can afford to be weak.
In that respect, they possess most if not all of the key ingredients required of a Super Bowl winner.
That starts with the quarterback. You simply can't win championships nowadays without a great one.
Nine of the last 11 Super Bowl champions were led by superstar quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame conversation (Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers), and the other two (Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens and Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks) had a combined 14 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in seven playoff games on their teams' respective Super Bowl runs.
Tony Romo is good enough to join that group.
After throwing three touchdown passes and throwing no interceptions for the second consecutive week Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles, Romo now ranks among the top five quarterbacks in the game when it comes to completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio, passer rating and QBR.
Here's how the 34-year-old stacks up to Green Bay Packers quarterback Rodgers, whom many have pegged as the leading candidate for MVP:
And arguments in favor of Romo become even more convincing when you consider that he started the season slow. The last two weeks, he's completed over 75 percent of his passes and has a passer rating of 134.4. He's the hottest quarterback in the league, which is a good thing to be with two weeks remaining in the regular season.
Romo's been good in past years, but never this good. And he's never been this well-supported. The Cowboys neglected the running game in criminal fashion the last few years, but this season they have a back who leads the NFL in rushing by a 409-yard margin.
As a result of DeMarco Murray's increased presence and the formidable results he's brought to the table, Dallas has, by definition, the most balanced offense in the league. If we're rounding to the nearest percentage point, they've run the ball on 50 percent of their offensive plays this season. Only the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks have passed less frequently.
Throw in that, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the offensive line—led by three 23-year-old recent first-round studs—has given up fewer quarterback pressures than all but four other units league-wide, and you begin to wonder if this is in fact the league's best all-around offense. And in 2014—a season which right now is on track to produce more league-wide yardage than any other campaign in NFL history—you're a legitimate contender so long as you're in such a conversation.
Would it help if the Cowboys had a better pass rush? Certainly. Few teams win Super Bowls without strong rushes, and even after tying a season high with four sacks against Philly the Cowboys find themselves ranked in the bottom five in terms of both sacks and sack percentage.
They're on pace to record just 26 sacks this season. Only one team in NFL history (the 2006 Indianapolis Colts) has won the Super Bowl despite recording fewer than 30.
But again, they might be getting into a groove at the right time in that area. Marinelli is a magician in terms of getting the most out of limited talent, particularly when it comes to pressure along the defensive line. How else do you explain Dallas picking up four sacks against one of the most talented offensive lines in football Sunday night?
So they might be able to win despite that Achilles' heel, especially in a year like this one in which nobody is unbeatable. The NFC's current top two seeds—the Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals—face major questions under center. The Green Bay Packers just lost to the Buffalo Bills and seem to have trouble with elite defenses. The Seattle Seahawks have a target on their back. The NFC South is a write-off, and the Eagles might not even make it.
There's no reason to believe Dallas can't emerge from that crop. And it's not as though top AFC Super Bowl candidates like the Broncos, Colts, Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots are juggernauts. Peyton Manning hasn't been himself for a Denver team that appears to be losing steam, the Colts have barely gotten past the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans the last two weeks and the Bengals were crushed at home just eight days ago.
And we know that the Patriots have developed a habit of losing Super Bowls to underdog NFC East opponents.
Also factoring in is that the Cowboys might have to win some games on the road in order to make a run. They play the Washington Commanders at FedEx Field on Week 17 and probably shouldn't expect to host more than a single playoff game regardless of whether they win the division.
But it's possible that could work in the Cowboys' favor. After all, Dallas is 7-0 away from home this season. If they beat a bad Commanders team two weeks from now in D.C., they'll become only the sixth team in NFL history to go 8-0 on the road.
There's little reason to believe that won't happen, because the Cowboys truly are—pardon the cliche—peaking at the right time. A team notoriously bad in December has won back-to-back cold-weather games against talented opponents to kick off the final month of the season. They're healthy, confident and gaining momentum.
To get to the playoffs, they'll have to avoid slipping up against the Colts, who have won four in a row and are fighting for a first-round bye in the AFC, as well as the feisty Commanders, who beat Dallas earlier this season.
That has to remain the only focus right now. But nobody can dispute at this point that if the Cowboys hang on in December, they'll be a very real championship threat in January.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.
Follow @Brad_Gagnon
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