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With running back no longer viewed as a premium position, backs these days rarely if ever get premium dollars. And that's what makes Murray's situation so complicated as he and the Cowboys begin to navigate the 2015 offseason.
Last we heard about a potential offer, NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported that Dallas had a four-year, $16 million contract on the table. Because punters like Mike Scifres of the San Diego Chargers and kickers like Josh Scobee of the Jacksonville Jaguars make similar salaries, a lot of folks think Murray's being low-balled.
But a second contract for a running back is a dangerous proposition, and there are a lot of factors to consider before drawing any conclusions regarding Murray's value.
What precedents suggest
We've all heard the cliche that suggests modern-day running backs are worth a dime a dozen, and there's something to it. This is a pass-happy era, and success at that position continues to be linked more so to being in the right place at the right time than it does to pedigree.
How else do you explain undrafted free agent Arian Foster rushing for more yards than anyone in the game except Adrian Peterson between 2010 and 2012? Or sixth-round pick Alfred Morris rushing for more yards than anyone except Marshawn Lynch between 2012 and 2014?
Among the 13 backs who ran for 1,000 yards in 2014, only one—Lynch—was drafted in the first round, and eight were still playing under their rookie contracts.
That also explains why it's been two years since a back has been selected in the first round. Here's a look at first-round backs since 2009:
So if you know you can likely find a replacement for your top back without having to use a high draft pick, there's less incentive to reward him with a second NFL contract worth big money. That's why the Denver Broncos let Knowshon Moreno walk last offseason, and it's also why Moreno—coming off of a season in which he ran for over 1,000 yards as part of a Super Bowl team—could only land a one-year, $3 million deal with the Miami Dolphins in free agency.
It's why the Seahawks won't budge on Marshawn Lynch two years after giving him a four-year, $31 million deal with $17 million guaranteed. He's still been productive, but he's 28. How can the Seahawks rationalize giving Lynch anything more when they see a guy like Justin Forsett—whom they drafted in the seventh round back before Lynch came to town—putting together a 1,266-yard Pro Bowl season as a member of the Baltimore Ravens?
Some cautionary tales:
- The Vikings gave Adrian Peterson a seven-year, $97 million deal in 2011, and he rewarded them with a 2,000-yard season in 2012, but his numbers have plummeted since. Now he's about to hit 30 and would be a salary-cap albatross regardless of his off-the-field situation.
- After back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons, the Tennessee Titans gave Chris Johnson a four-year, $54 million deal in 2011. Over the next three years, Johnson averaged just 4.1 yards per carry. He's no longer with Tennessee and has yet to make it back to the Pro Bowl.
- The Panthers gave Jonathan Stewart a six-year, $37.8 million deal in 2012. Big-time money for a back with just one 1,000-yard season under his belt. Also a big mistake. He's rushed for only 1,325 yards total three years into that deal.
- The Eagles gave LeSean McCoy a six-year, $45 million deal in 2012, but McCoy has fallen short of expectations in two of the three seasons since.
- The Texans gave Arian Foster a five-year, $43 million deal in 2012, but Foster averaged just 4.1 yards per attempt the next season and was forced to miss half of the 2013 campaign due to injury.
- The Chiefs gave Jamaal Charles a four-year, $28 million deal last offseason. But as a 28-year-old, Charles' numbers dropped off across the board in 2014.
What the numbers suggest
Every case is different. On paper, Murray is coming off of a better season than any of those guys (1,845 yards, 13 touchdowns). And at 26, he's as young as any of them were when signing their big new deals.
With that in mind, somebody might use Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears as an example and give Murray a blockbuster contract.
In the summer of 2012, Forte, who was also 26, received a four-year, $30.4 million contract extension with $13.8 million guaranteed. He was coming off a season in which he had put together 1,487 yards from scrimmage despite missing four games, and he's followed that up with three consecutive seasons with over 1,400 yards from scrimmage. He also has 28 touchdowns in that span. And in 2014, only Murray and Le'Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers had more combined rushing and receiving yards.
Murray's the same age Forte was but is coming off an even better season. So while he certainly isn't worth Adrian Peterson money, the natural assumption is that he's probably worth something in that $8 million-per-year range, with at least $10 million-$15 million guaranteed over the course of a four-year contract.
The problem is that in the three years since Forte got his deal, we've seen Peterson, Stewart, Johnson McCoy, Foster and Charles disappoint to varying degrees. And there are other factors to consider with Murray, such as his injury history. Is it only a matter of time before his body fails him?
The Curse of 370 can't be ignored
That leads me to what Football Outsiders terms the "Curse of 370," which, based on countless examples, posits that "a running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson."
I touched on this in a piece last week previewing Dallas' offseason, with this table highlighting just how dire things could be for Murray after he touched the ball more often than all but five other players in NFL history in 2014:
So is it worth it to bet that Murray will be Forte rather than Chris Johnson, Stewart, McCoy, Foster or Charles? Or that he'll be Dickerson rather than Larry Johnson, Anderson, Wilder, Riggs, Davis or Foster?
Let's also consider that it's a minor miracle Murray was able to make it through that rigorous 2014 campaign with only a broken hand. He missed 11 games during his first three seasons with ankle, foot and knee injuries, and it might only be a matter of time before health problems catch up with him again, especially after a season like that.
Murray even showed signs of slowing down as the workload weighed on him during the home stretch of 2014.
The possibility exists that Murray simply got hot for a couple of months while running behind one of the best lines and as part of one of the best offenses in football. Good for him, but is that enough to earn anything more than about $4 million per year? Looking at this, I'm not so sure:
He's worth less to the Cowboys than he might be to others
Of course, the guys with the big salaries on the above table are dudes on their second or third contracts. Obviously, Murray will be worth significantly more than his peers who are still playing out rookie deals.
But you could argue that he's actually worth something closer to the range of DeAngelo Williams' and Steven Jackson's contracts from two years ago. In 2013, Williams received a three-year, $10 million deal from the Panthers. That same year, Jackson signed a three-year, $12 million extension with the Atlanta Falcons.
Someone will likely cave and fall in love with Murray for his bell-cow abilities and that flashy yardage total. A team will ignore the fact that six qualified backs actually averaged more yards per carry than Murray in 2014 or the fact that he'd have to be an aberration in order to maintain the pace he set in his fourth season. And instead of offering him $4 million a year, it'll break the bank and give him $8 million per year with a guarantee north of $15 million.
It's inevitable.
But that team won't be the Cowboys.
It's just not practical, which is why owner Jerry Jones has said it'll be a "challenge" for Dallas to re-sign both Murray and All-Pro wide receiver Dez Bryant. Jones probably realizes he'll have to overpay for a running back who likely just had his best season. He knows better than to buy high, especially at that position.
Not only does it not make fiscal sense for the relatively cap-strapped Cowboys to give Murray a substantial payday, but the on-field circumstances also fail to support such a move.
John Bankston of The Landry Hat sums it up quite nicely:
The simple truth is, the Cowboys have built their roster in such a way that they do not need to retain running backs on second contracts to get good production from that position. That’s an advantage in a capped league. That advantage is neutralized the moment you pay a running back anything over the rookie pay scale.
A smart GM does not use three first-round picks on offensive linemen, hit on all three, then pay a running back. In a capped league, that’s bad personnel management. Murray is a really good football player. Dallas may not be as good at running back after he leaves, but their investment up front means they can still be terrific. Then they can use the cap space they would have spent on an All Pro back to shore up other roster needs.
Bingo.
See, I've yet to even hit on the fact that Murray likely benefited greatly by running behind arguably the best offensive line in football this season. With Pro Bowlers Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and Travis Frederick plowing defenders out of the way, it can't be considered that surprising that he was able to put together a career year.
As long as that line is intact and Pro Bowlers Tony Romo and Bryant are playing catch in the passing game, there'll be no reason for the Cowboys to invest heavily in running backs. Proof of that comes from Murray's young backup, Joseph Randle, who in 2014 had the highest yards-per-attempt average in the NFL among backs with at least 50 carries.
I'm not suggesting that's a remotely sustainable pace or that Randle can single-handedly replace Murray, but as long as they get to work with that line, that quarterback and those receivers, he and Lance Dunbar are good enough to give Dallas a great running game going forward.
Somebody somewhere else will overpay for Murray, who can't possibly be worth more than $5 million or $6 million a year. That team will have to be desperate, and it will have to possess the cap space to splurge on a premium player at a non-premium position.
But there's a good chance that in a couple of years, that team will be filled with regret.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.
Follow @Brad_Gagnon
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