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Not a single running back went in the first round of either of the past two NFL drafts. In free agency last year, a few proven starters at the running back position couldn't command respectable contract offers. With widely available talent, very few feature backs and shorter careers, it's easy to understand why the NFL no longer values its running backs the way it did in the past.
Enter DeMarco Murray.
Murray is the cat who is about to be dropped amongst the pigeons. Despite the deflated market for running backs, the value of a star at the position is still high. Murray was arguably the best back in the NFL last year. There was no argument to make against him being the most productive.
On an incredible 436 carries, which include the two postseason games he played in, Murray averaged 4.7 yards per carry for 2,043 total rushing yards. Throw in 61 receptions for 443 receiving yards and you have a running back who was simply dominant. A lot of things combined to allow Murray to have the best season of his career, but the two most significant were his health and the quality of his offensive line.
Before last season, Murray's career high in touches for a season was just 270. That number came in 2013 when he played in 14 regular season games. During his first two seasons in the league, Murray had just 386 touches while playing in only 23 games.
Durability is a major question mark for Murray. He hasn't proven he can stay healthy over multiple seasons, and he is coming off of the fifth-greatest workload for a season in the history of the game.
Any back coming off of that kind of usage has to be met with skepticism on the open market. Hits shorten careers and Murray endured so many last season that his short-term outlook is more likely to prove problematic while his long-term value must come into question.
Surpassed the durability question, teams must decide if Murray can replicate or even come close to replicating his production behind a different offensive line.
The Dallas Cowboys had the best offensive line in the NFL last year. After years of investing in the unit, Jerry Jones finally got his reward. Tyron Smith is one of the best left tackles in the NFL, Travis Frederick is the best run-blocking center in the NFL and Zack Martin was an immediate All-Pro after being selected in the first round of the 2014 draft.
It's difficult to measure how much of Murray's production was dependent on his offensive line. Each position is linked with the other, so both need to work in concert to create consistent production.
What can be pointed to is the production of primary backup Joseph Randle. The second-year running back carried the ball 51 times for 343 yards and three touchdowns during the regular season. He was a regular big-play threat and averaged 2.0 yards more per carry than his teammate.
Randle's production alone shouldn't be used to suggest Murray is replaceable. Fellow backup Lance Dunbar averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on his 29 rushes during the regular season. Significantly, Randle's skill set is of such a style that he is capable of highlighting the space that is created behind the Cowboys offensive line on zone-blocking runs.
That space played a huge role in the Cowboys' ability to consistently run the ball and it's not something that is easily replicated with less talented pieces. Murray is unlikely to find that kind of support with another team.
Most of Murray's easiest yards came on runs outside either tackle.
Each of the Cowboys offensive linemen move well laterally. It allows them to attack the edges in different ways. On this play, the offense comes out with a very tight formation, two tight ends to the right and one to the left.
Despite this formation, they are still viable to run to the outside with relative ease.
At the snap, Murray takes the football from quarterback Tony Romo on an outside stretch play. The offensive line in front of him is sliding towards the right sideline while engaging or moving towards an individual blocker. Each defender is accounted for and the only penetration coming is on the backside of the play.
Murray has plenty of space to survey the defense and approach the line of scrimmage.
Every single key blocker for this specific run is in position and winning at the point of contact. This allows Murray to advance into space at the line of scrimmage with two running lanes available to him. He can either cut outside or attack the A-Gap between his right guard and center.
In terms of evaluating Murray's decision-making in situations like this, this play is a problem. Unless he runs into a blocker, he can't make a bad decision.
Murray pushes off his left foot and turns towards the sideline. On the outside, tight end Jason Witten has sealed the edge so Murray can advance cleanly down the sideline. Without facing any contact, making any defenders miss in space, manipulating his blocking or working in tight areas, Murray went clean into the secondary.
Not all of Murray's big plays came like this, but too many came with relative ease.
The Cowboys offensive line was consistently effective on these types of plays. Most offensive lines in the league have a staple run they turn to in times of need. Not only do the Cowboys excel on plays such as this one, they also have the versatility to consistently keep the defense off balance.
On this play against the Packers in the playoffs, the Cowboys initially come out with a tight end in motion behind the line of scrimmage. With three receivers also on the field, the Packers have to respect the pass and leave a light box upfront to stop the run.
The Cowboys are able to maximize this numbers advantage by pulling the tight end and the left guard across the formation.
Murray's blocking executes perfectly. He only needs to attack the space in front of him to immediately be on the second level. From there, he is in space against a safety he can comfortably run around to further his gain down the seam.
It must be noted that Murray's talent allows him to make these plays consistently and take advantage of the space in front of him, but the difficulty of what he is doing isn't what it would be elsewhere.
Instead of investing a huge contract in a running back who may or may not be as good behind a less effective offensive line, it would make more sense to follow the structure of the Baltimore Ravens running game. The Ravens have a similarly impressive offensive line, but they relied on cheap, free-agent veteran Justin Forsett to be their primary ball-carrier.
At 27 years of age, youth isn't going to be on Murray's side when he hits the open market.
Since 1990, 59 running backs have rushed for at least 1,000 yards after turning 29 years of age. Yet, only 25 have rushed for at least 1,200 yards under the same criteria and only six have rushed for at least 1,500 yards. None of those six have come since the 2005 season.
History suggests Murray can still be one of the better backs three years from now, but the chances of him being one of the most productive in the NFL seem slim.
Being a good starting running back at 29 years of age is an achievement in its own, but if you're paying someone like one of the very best the value swings against the team. Away from the Cowboys, Murray would still be unlikely to replicate his production over the next two seasons. In three years, it would simply be implausible.
Exceptions always exist, but for the most part mega contracts in the NFL should be saved for quarterbacks, pass-rushers and coverage players. Unless you're paying for a truly elite superstar, it's simply not worth investing in a running back nowadays.
Is Murray an exception? Last season could lead you to believe that, but his career as a whole and the circumstances of his production last year suggests he is just another very good running back and not a great one.
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