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The defending Super Bowl champions bring the NFL’s top-ranked offense, which features one of the league’s all-time great quarterbacks and the best tight end in football. In addition to their offensive firepower, the Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick, whose run of success in New England is nearly unmatched in NFL history.
Let’s get an idea of what the game plan could look like for the Cowboys on Sunday.
Offensive Game Plan
The Cowboys finished second in the NFL in 2014 with an average of 147 rushing yards per game. In 2015, they sit 16th in the league with almost 108 yards per game. There are many contributing factors in this decline, but one of them is that the Cowboys have faced more defenders crowded near the line of scrimmage to stop the run.
In this example, the New Orleans Saints play eight men in the box to stop the Cowboys running game:
In this image it’s easy to see that the Saints have more defenders near the ball than the Cowboys can block with the seven blockers available. Because of the presence of the quarterback, a defense can always put an offense at a numerical disadvantage if it chooses.
Because this is so common, coaches who are committed to running the ball believe you should be able to run even against loaded fronts such as this. The typical method on the Cowboys’ style of zone runs is to find a way to block the furthest defender to the back side on the line of scrimmage by making him account for some sort of quarterback run or action back to his side.
At the point of the handoff, the Cowboys' seven blockers are in good position against their respective defenders, but the back-side player has fully committed to pursuit down the line. In this case, Joseph Randle’s read tells him to cut back, but because the back-side defender doesn't have to account for a threat to his side, he is able to close down the window and limit the play to a two-yard gain.
In this example, the Cowboys have only six blockers for the Saints’ seven defenders:
At the point of the handoff, the offensive line has set up a clean cutback for Randle to get up the field as the flow continues to the right for a potential big run, but the back-side defender (red box) has pursued all the way down the line to close off the lane and limit the play to net no gain.
If the Cowboys want to re-establish their dynamic running game from 2014, they need to find ways to force this extra man to hesitate for just a split second to allow for the running backs to get through the lane. Whether this means calling more bootleg passes off this type of play action or running a wide receiver such as Lucky Whitehead in “ghost” motion to threaten the back side with a run, they need to do more to slow down that defender.
Defensive Game Plan
The Patriots offense presents many challenges for defenses, but the greatest one involves its continual variation of alignments, combined with its quick tempo.
The Patriots use multiple formations to move their biggest weapon, tight end Rob Gronkowski, all over the field to create mismatches, and they move at a tempo close to that of the Philadelphia Eagles to create confusion and misalignment.
In the first series of their Week 3 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Patriots moved the ball 64 yards in five plays in less than two minutes to take a 7-0 lead. In the process, Gronkowski lined up in four different places in the formation and was targeted three times, catching two passes for 53 yards.
Play 1: 1st-and-10 – wide right:
Play 2: 2nd-and-7 – flex right:
Play 3: 1st-and-10 – flex right:
Play 4: 1st-and-Goal – wide left:
Play 5: 2nd-and-Goal – in-line right:
The Cowboys will likely try to match rookie Byron Jones on Gronkowski as much as possible, as they have with other tight ends this season. However, the first-round pick will have his hands full just making sure he’s lined up against the tight end, much less actually preventing him from getting open downfield.
The Cowboys defense will have to be prepared to match the multiple looks it will get from Tom Brady and the Patriots on Sunday. Dallas will need to avoid mental errors before the snap if it is going to have a chance to slow Brady and his weapons.
Prediction
The Cowboys will play better than many have expected; the offense will make a play or two, and the defense will compete like crazy. One of the newly available defenders will make some sort of splash play, but ultimately, the Patriots will be too much for them to deal with, as the Cowboys are still short-handed.
Final Score: Patriots 31, Cowboys 20
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