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Where wide receiver Dez Bryant is concerned, it appears the Cowboys have all but made that decision, and while slapping the 26-year-old with the franchise tag solves the issue of Bryant's status for 2014, the Cowboys are just exchanging one set of problems for a new and potentially even more troubling set.
As ESPN's Todd Archer reports, Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones indicated Tuesday from the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis that Dallas is leaning toward tagging their star wide receiver.
"Right now we're probably leaning that way. But that doesn't mean it won't change," Jones said. "We'll probably wait 'til the midnight hour to make that decision."
On the surface, it's certainly not hard to see why the Cowboys have no intention of letting Bryant hit the open market.
In 2014, Bryant caught 88 passes for 1,320 yards and a league-leading 16 touchdowns. It marked the third straight season in which Bryant has scored double-digit touchdowns, and as ESPN pointed out, Bryant's 56 touchdowns in five seasons puts him in some pretty rarefied air:
It's no surprise whatsoever that the Cowboys don't want Bryant to even test the free-agent waters, much less sail away to another locale.
What is surprising, however, is that according to Cowboys beat writer Clarence Hill, Dallas hasn't made any real effort to work out a contract extension with Bryant:
Granted, Bryant did change agents during the 2014 season, but that switch alone doesn't necessarily explain why the Cowboys have had only "a visit or two" with Bryant's new representatives, according to Archer.
There are a couple of reasons why it's curious that the Cowboys seem much more inclined to go the tag route than to give Bryant the long-term deal he seeks.
For starters, it's time for the annual rite of spring that is the Dallas Cowboys playing three-card Monte with the salary cap.
Actually, compared to the mess the team usually finds itself in, things aren't that bad in 2015. According to Over the Cap, Dallas is presently about $14 million under a projected salary cap of $140 million. It isn't great, but it isn't terrible.
Until, that is, you factor in a franchise tag for wide receivers that Archer predicts will come in at about $13 million.
Let's see, $14 million minus $13 million is...trouble.
Yes, the cap could come in a bit higher than that, and Jerry Jones is as adept as any owner in the NFL at creating some wiggle room by pushing money down the road. Still, the franchise tag for Bryant leaves precious little coin to sign an impact free agent to help the defense.
It also leaves very little cabbage to feed the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year, increasing the chances that DeMarco Murray's time with the Cowboys has come to an end.
An extension for Bryant alleviates that problem. Even a deal that made Bryant the highest-paid wide receiver in football (in other words, more than he's going to get) isn't going to carry a $13 million cap hit in Year 1.
It would also make Bryant happy, as opposed to what he is now:
That shot across the bow of the franchise can hardly be called a shocker. As Archer reported, Bryant's made no secret of the fact he doesn't want to be tagged, stating during the season that he would be "extremely disappointed' were that to happen.
Jones brushed those concerns aside while speaking with Archer:
We feel strongly about him. We worked hard to do a long-term deal with him, and we'll continue to work hard at it. If we don't get one, then [the franchise tag] just shows him how much we care about him [that] we don't want to expose him.
Hill, however, isn't buying it:
And he has a point. After a very rocky start to his NFL career off the field, Bryant has essentially been a model citizen the past three seasons. Credit the "Dez Bryant Rules" the team implemented back in 2012 if you wish, but he's behaved himself.
Mind you, this isn't to say Bryant isn't still half a hothead. He is. Always will be. But the Cowboys can't have an issue with on-field performance, so heel-dragging on the franchise's part almost has to be related to a fear that the "old Dez" could resurface post-payday.
The problem there is, we might end up seeing "Distraction Dez" anyway, this time due to frustration over his contract.
There's already been that tweet. According to ESPN's Ed Werder, if Bryant's tagged, odds are he'll be a no-show at offseason workouts:
Granted, that's not a huge deal. Tagged players often don't show up for OTAs as a "protest" of sorts. Most of the time, they eventually sign their tender and report, and the story fades from the headlines.
In Dallas, however, every story is magnified under the glare from the lights that constantly shine on "America's Team." If Bryant digs in, and the drama surrounding his tender extends into the summer...
It's just unnecessary grief that a team with Super Bowl aspirations doesn't need, especially since the Cowboys could find themselves on the same merry-go-round a year from now.
Now, it's possible we don't have the whole story. Maybe there have been incidents (besides the ones we already know about) that give the Cowboys pause about Bryant's long-term future. Maybe his contract demands are so over-the-moon that they have stalled talks completely.
Then the tag makes sense as a fallback plan.
But in using the franchise tag as Plan A, in lieu of getting Dez Bryant locked up long-term, it's hard to see what exactly the Cowboys' plan for 2015 is around Bryant.
And that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence.
Gary Davenport is an NFL Analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPManor.
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