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Dallas quarterback Tony Romo’s collarbone injury derailed the 2015 season for the Cowboys and made it clear that they needed to begin looking for his eventual replacement.
The two quarterbacks considered worthy of first-round picks in the 2016 draft, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff, could both be an option for Dallas at No. 4 if they’re available. Dallas could take one of them and groom him to be Romo’s successor.
Neither quarterback, however, is enough of a sure thing to spend a top-five pick on when Dallas has so many other needs.
Wentz is expected to be the first quarterback taken. Sports Illustrated’s Chris Burke, like many others, has the Cleveland Browns taking him with the No. 2 pick.
The North Dakota State product has prototypical size at 6’5” and 237 pounds. His arm strength allows him to make difficult throws even when he faces pressure, like this:
But he also played against FCS competition. There’s no way to know how successful he would have been playing against more talented teams.
While there are successful NFL quarterbacks who played at smaller programs in college (Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco and Romo among them), it’s risky to pick Wentz so high given the difference in talent he will be facing.
He needs to learn to have better pocket presence. His inconsistent footwork makes him inaccurate at times.
The Cleveland Browns will probably take a quarterback with the second overall pick, and Wentz would likely be their first choice. The only way the Cowboys would be guaranteed to land Wentz would be by trading up to No. 1.
The cost of such a move would be prohibitive, especially if they have to outbid the Eagles—another team that may be trying to move up to grab a franchise quarterback. Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice writes that there is a “realistic chance” the Eagles trade up to grab “their guy.”
Goff is a safer pick, though still not necessarily worth taking in the top five. He played tougher competition in the Pac-12. He comes from a spread offense that gave him easier reads and lots of wide-open receivers.
The transition to a pro-style scheme has been difficult for some of the recent spread quarterbacks who got drafted early, including Robert Griffin III, Johnny Manziel, Geno Smith, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker. Every one of those quarterbacks since 2011 were a first- or second-round pick after playing in a spread scheme in college.
None of them are starters today.
That doesn’t mean Goff will fail. It does mean that taking him in the top 10 is more of a risk than people realize.
Even if Goff or Wentz become the future of the franchise, Dallas hopes for Romo to remain its starter for at least another couple of years. That’s a lot of time to keep the franchise’s most-valuable draft pick in years on the bench.
As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell points out, “the opportunity cost of using a top-five draft pick on a player who might play only a few games per year is very high given Dallas' needs elsewhere.”
Dallas has a slew of other needs, which is part of why they landed at No. 4 overall. They need to spend that pick on a player who can fill one of those holes.
Only five teams in the league had fewer sacks in 2015 than the Cowboys’ 31, per Pro-football-reference.com. Dallas wisely let Greg Hardy become a free agent, and Randy Gregory will miss the first four games of 2016 with a suspension. That leaves the Cowboys in even greater need of a pass-rusher.
Oregon Ducks' DeForest Buckner and Ohio State Buckeyes' Joey Bosa will both probably be available when the fourth pick comes around. Either one would provide an immediate boost to the Dallas pass rush.
Bosa would bring the added benefit of being one of the best run-stopping defensive ends in the draft. Pro Football Focus rated him as the top edge defender against the run in college football over the last two seasons. The Cowboys had the No. 22 rush defense in the league last year and could use Bosa’s help there as well.
The Cowboys may decide cornerback is their biggest need.
Morris Claiborne never developed into the No. 1 corner they expected him to be when they traded up to grab him with the sixth-overall pick in 2012.
Should Jalen Ramsey, regarded by many as the best player in this draft, somehow fall to No. 4, then the Cowboys should have their pick in before the clock even starts. He would immediately be the best corner on the team. He could also shift over and play safety for them when necessary.
With Ramsey likely to be off the board, though, Dallas could look at trading back and gaining more picks. Then they could draft Vernon Hargreaves III or Mackensie Alexander.
Yet, another option would be selecting Myles Jack, whom Pete Prisco of CBS Sports calls, “the best overall prospect in the 2016 draft.” The Cowboys wouldn’t even have to move to grab him if Ramsey, Wentz and Ole Miss Rebels tackle Laremy Tunsil go in the top-three picks.
Jack is the best linebacker in the draft and would help against the run, in coverage and rushing the passer.
Dallas has a wide range of options with the fourth-overall pick, and almost all of them are more likely to turn out better than taking a quarterback. The organization should consider all of those possibilities first.
Then, if they’re still desperate for a quarterback, they can choose Paxton Lynch with the No. 34 pick overall or wait to take another developmental quarterback like Christian Hackenberg or Kevin Hogan later in the draft.
One of those players could sit behind Romo and learn for a couple of seasons. If he doesn’t develop into the answer, then the franchise doesn’t have to lament wasting the fourth-overall pick on him. The pick is too valuable, and there are too many needs on the Cowboys’ roster to justify taking a player who isn’t a sure thing.
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