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When you think about Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, you don't think MVP. There are several reasons for that, most of which aren't fair to Romo. But the reality is that based on what the 34-year-old has done this season, it's hard to argue that anyone has been more valuable to his team than Romo.
It's not just that Romo is the NFL's highest-rated passer, or that he leads the league with a completion percentage of 70.3 and a yards-per-attempt average of 8.5. When it comes to those three categories, Romo is on pace to hit marks that only Steve Young and Joe Montana have reached. And he also ranks second to only Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4.0 (32-8).
But it's also that Romo has carried the Cowboys to an NFC East title and their first playoff appearance in half a decade despite the fact there was a near consensus in the preseason that this team was going to struggle after another tough offseason.
In games that have been started and finished in uninterrupted fashion by Romo this season, the Cowboys are 11-2. When he had to miss parts of a Week 8 game against the Washington Commanders, the Cowboys lost. And when he couldn't play the following week against the Arizona Cardinals, the same thing happened.
This is what the Cowboys have received from Romo in their four losses this season:
And this is what they've got from him in their 11 wins:
A lot of folks will tell you that running back DeMarco Murray is this team's MVP, which obviously would hurt Romo's chances of winning the league MVP. And yes, Murray, who leads the NFL in rushing by a 404-yard margin, has made life significantly easier for Romo. But that doesn't mean Romo isn't more of a difference-maker.
Obviously, there's a chicken-egg factor to consider when correlating wins and losses with rushing performances because teams typically run more when they lead, but even with that in mind it's not as though Murray has been much better in wins than in losses:
Plus, MVPs are made when the games matter most. And Romo has been by far the league's best quarterback in December.
That's even more impressive when you consider that he's been recovering from two fractures in his back and that Murray has come back to earth the last four weeks.
Quarterbacks have won six of the last seven MVPs, and this has been an exceptional year for pivots, so it would be hard to see a non-QB win the award. Murray and Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt factor in, but it looks as though Murray will fall short of 2,000 yards and Watt's Texans are likely to miss the playoffs. A defensive player hasn't won the award since 1986, so don't expect a defender to win it in a year like this, especially on a non-playoff team.
With that in mind, this really is a quarterback comparison. And while at times Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger have been better than all of their quarterback peers, it's becoming clear that Romo has made a more consistent and more pronounced impact over the course of the season (and as we saw above, when it has mattered most).
On that whole "when it matters most" point, Romo has also surpassed Rodgers as the league's highest-rated passer on third down:
And he continues to be the league's best quarterback in the second half of one-score games:
For those who want to take the MVP away from Romo because of Murray, please consider the presence of Eddie Lacy in Green Bay and C.J. Anderson in Denver. Lacy is actually averaging more yards per carry this season than Murray and Anderson has out-rushed the Cowboys back the last six weeks. Rodgers and Romo have received comparable support from their running games for the majority of the year, and Manning has received better support from his defense.
Denver, Green Bay and Brady's Patriots have all given up fewer points per game than Romo's Cowboys, who rank 17th in total defense. And while the Cowboys' dominant offensive line certainly has helped Romo, Rodgers and Manning have also benefited from great pass protection.
In fact, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranks both Green Bay and Denver ahead of Dallas in terms of pass-blocking efficiency, with Pittsburgh also in the top 10.
Does it really look as though Romo has a big advantage there? I'm not even sure he has an advantage at all.
And yet he won't win the MVP. He should, but he won't. And that's because there continues to be a false narrative surrounding Romo, a faulty perception that he isn't "elite" and wilts under pressure.
Without poor performances against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1 and the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving, he'd be having a near-perfect season. But both of those bad games took place on national television. Over-exposure has killed Romo more than anything he's done. And for whatever reason, a lot of us have a tendency to cling to the bad and forget about the good when we're assessing him.
So they'll probably give it to Rodgers or Watt, regardless of what happens in Week 17 and in spite of the fact that nearly every piece of logic and evidence points to Romo being the NFL's Most Valuable Player.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.
Follow @Brad_Gagnon
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