Breaking down Mostert’s leverage, value, and figuring out what happens next

[joseephuss]

Let's see. A 28 year old running back who has been on 5 different teams during his 5 year NFL career and has had one "good" season. He is in year 2 of his 3 year contract with the 49ers. I wouldn't give him a raise. If they can get something in return for him then trade him, but the odds are he won't be able to reproduce his best year.

https://www.ninersnation.com/2020/7/9/21317992/49ers-trade-raheem-mostert-value-nfl

Breaking down Mostert’s leverage, value, and figuring out what happens next

San Francisco 49ers running back Raheem Mostert requested a trade on Wednesday. Ian Rapoport said Mostert wants to be the highest-paid running back on the team. Tevin Coleman will make 4.55 million in 2020, and that’s where Mostert wants to be. After the season both players just had, that’s a fair request. Mostert has worked his tail off as a special-teamer and finally received the opportunity to showcase his skills as a running back at the highest level. He did not disappoint.

System running back?
Kyle Shanahan is involved, so instantly, you think Mostert is replaceable. When talking about Mostert, this is a situation where “all things are true.” Does he benefit from the 49ers system? Absolutely. I could put together about 20 carries or so of Mostert running untouched where John Madden would say, “you could fit a truck through that hole.” Credit Mike McDaniel there. Mostert benefitting from the Niners offense can be true while acknowledging Mostert can create for himself.

Over the second half of the season, Mostert averaged 5.7 yards per carry on 82 rushes. Twenty of those went for first downs, and 14 went over 10 yards. He averaged 3.59 yards after contact (seventh in the NFL) and avoided 15 tackles, per PFF. Mostert had the 27th most carries during the 2nd half. The eye test matches up with the numbers.

 

[Flamma]

He's upset that he signed a 3 year deal that he no longer likes? If the 49ers cut Coleman then he'll be the highest paid RB.

 

[kskboys]

If I was the 9ers, I'd trade him for a decent offer. 1 year wonders who have been in the league for several years just don't work out. Only one I can think of is Priest Holmes.

The guy had 772 yards. That's not huge contract worthy. He has 1,069 yards rushing in his career.

Would I give him a raise? IDK, maybe a small one. They focus on running the ball and had great OL play. RB by committee.

I didn't specifically watch him, just don't believe in one year wonders.

 

[DFWJC]

Shannahan's offense is very RB friendly.
Mosert is pretty talented, but they would not miss a beat, if they stayed healthy, without him.

 

[jrumann59]

If I was the 9ers, I'd trade him for a decent offer. 1 year wonders who have been in the league for several years just don't work out. Only one I can think of is Priest Holmes.

The guy had 772 yards. That's not huge contract worthy. He has 1,069 yards rushing in his career.

Would I give him a raise? IDK, maybe a small one. They focus on running the ball and had great OL play. RB by committee.

I didn't specifically watch him, just don't believe in one year wonders.

Priest Holmes???? until his spinal injury he was probably one of the most dominate RBs in the league at the time.

 

[kskboys]

Priest Holmes???? until his spinal injury he was probably one of the most dominate RBs in the league at the time.

Reading comprehension is your friend!!!!

Holmes was in the league 4 years before he broke out. Before that, he had 2,102 yds in 4 years. He had 3 dominant years.

I'm really not sure what you're trying to say, to tell the truth. He's the only example I can think of who was in the league several years and suddenly broke out to be really good.

 

[jrumann59]

Reading comprehension is your friend!!!!

Holmes was in the league 4 years before he broke out. Before that, he had 2,102 yds in 4 years. He had 3 dominant years.

I'm really not sure what you're trying to say, to tell the truth. He's the only example I can think of who was in the league several years and suddenly broke out to be really good.

Priest Holmes was buried behind Bam Morris and Ernest Byner his rookie year, he broke out his second year with over 1000 yards even though he started the season as the 3rd RB. he missed 7 games his third year which probably led to him being replaced with Jamal Lewis his forth year.

 

[kskboys]

Priest Holmes was buried behind Bam Morris and Ernest Byner his rookie year, he broke out his second year with over 1000 yards even though he started the season as the 3rd RB. he missed 7 games his third year which probably led to him being replaced with Jamal Lewis his forth year.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but you're still missing the point. He didn't really break out until his 5th year in the league. That's where Mostert is, the only example I could find.

(Quit arguing w/ yourself!!!!)

 

[joseephuss]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but you're still missing the point. He didn't really break out until his 5th year in the league. That's where Mostert is, the only example I could find.

(Quit arguing w/ yourself!!!!)

Yes, there aren't many running backs that I can think of that took a few years to have a "breakout" season and then were able to continue at a reasonably high level. Maybe Mark Ingram falls into that category. He certainly hasn't reached the level of Holmes. John Riggins didn't have a 1000 yard season until his 5th year in the league. Mostet's breakout year wasn't even that great and it sure as heck wasn't good enough to warrant a pay raise after only 1 season on his new contract. I doubt he is able to replicate his year with the 49ers or any other team.

 

[kskboys]

Yes, there aren't many running backs that I can think of that took a few years to have a "breakout" season and then were able to continue at a reasonably high level. Maybe Mark Ingram falls into that category. He certainly hasn't reached the level of Holmes. John Riggins didn't have a 1000 yard season until his 5th year in the league. Mostet's breakout year wasn't even that great and it sure as heck wasn't good enough to warrant a pay raise after only 1 season on his new contract. I doubt he is able to replicate his year with the 49ers or any other team.

And mostly when they did have some sort of breakout, it was short term. Lincoln Coleman anyone!!!!! Tim Hightower?

Did you know that Ickey Woods only had like 1,300 career rushing yards?

 

[DFWJC]

Well, Jerrick McKinnon is back and supposedly looks amazing.
https://www.nfl.com/news/niners-rb-jerick-mckinnon-looks-phenomenal-fb-kyle-juszczyk-says

Tevin Coleman and McKinnon would be one helluva 1-2 punch even without Moesert.

 

[atlantacowboy]

Anyone running behind the SF OL is going to have a good year. JAGS like Mostart and McKinnon prove the point.

 

[joseephuss]

Anyone running behind the SF OL is going to have a good year. JAGS like Mostart and McKinnon prove the point.

I get what you are saying, but McKinnon certainly has not proven that point. He has yet to have one single rushing attempt as a 49er since they signed him to a 4 year $30 million contract in 2018, which was recently restructured. The point and I think you agree, is with the way the 49ers utilize running backs they don't need to rely on Mostart. They will find someone else to share the load. He has no leverage at this point.