Breaking down pick no 4 and who will be there.

[Killerinstinct]

This is obviously my opinion.

Who will be taken ahead of us and who will be left at 4?

Breaking down scenarios and not considering trades since that is too hard to predict.

Conventional wisdom has it falling like this.

1. Tenn - Tunsil
2. Cle-Wentz
3. SD - Ramsey

This leaves us with Jack, Bosa, Bunckner and Elliott. This is potentially not a good situation if Jacks knee doesn't check out. I think if Jack's knee doesn't get a clear diagnosis from team doctors we end up taking Bosa here and I am not a huge fan. We could be looking to trade back but I don't know if anyone will view us as a trade back option under this scenerio because there is little reason for a QB needy team to jump the two teams behind us.

If Tenn decides Lewan is legit LT and they can get a good RT in the top of rd 2 then it could fall like this.

1. Tenn - Ramsey
2. Cle - Wentz
3. SD- Tunsil

We are left with the same situation.

Another possible scenario

1. Tenn - Tunsil
2. Cle - Ramsey - They signed RG III and they have a good back up. They lost both safety's.
3. SD - Bosa

This leaves us with similar options and Wentz. I still think we are not going to draft a QB this high and I still don't think a team needs to move to 4 to get one so we probably can't find a trade down partner here either.

The unexpected.

Top 3 falls with Ramsey, Jack and Wentz or Bosa taken leaving Tunsil. This in my opinion gives us the best option to find a good trade back partner. I think teams would see Tunsil falling and want to get him.

The gift

1. Tenn - Tunsil
2. Cle- Wentz
3. SD- Bosa

This leaves us with Ramsey and is the scenario that is most desirable. IMO!

An attempt to place odds on no 4 pick
Jack 40% assuming the team decides there is no issue with the knee
Ramsey 33% solely determined by the 3 teams ahead of us. He is the pick if he is there.
Bosa 10% this is based solely on need as I don't think the team wants him at 4.
Spence 5% - Can't find a trade back partner but decide he fits what they want more than others.
Hargreaves III 5% - can't find a trade back partner but like him better than DE prospects.
Bunckner 4% - I don't see this happening at all but can't rule it out.
Wentz 1% - If Jack Ramsey and Tunsil are gone and they can't find a trade and they really don't like Bosa.
Goff 1% - sm as above but they like Goff better than Wentz.
Elliott 1%- Sm as above but they don't like the qb's at all.

Attempt to place odds on pick 4 with Jack ruled out due to knee not checking out.

Ramsey- 33% again determined by teams 1 thru 3.
Bosa - 33% With Ramsey gone and Jack not an option they just fill their biggest need with best available.
Spence - 10% they wanted to trade down but no takers and they just think he fits better than other DE's.
Hargreaves III - 8% can't find a trade back partner and just don't like the DE's at all.
Bunckner - 6% they simply like him better than bosa and rule out Spence
Tunsil 5%- somehow is there and Ramsey, and Bosa are gone and can't trade back.
Elliott 2% - Tunsil Ramsey and Bosa are gone Jack not an option and can't find a trade.
Wentz -2% - Tunsil, Ramsey and Bosa are gone and they like him so much they pull the trigger.
Goff 1% - Sm as wentz but they like Goff better. Unlikely IMO.

I think it is most likely we end up with one of 3 players.

Jack, Ramsey or Bosa. I think it is Ramsey if he is there. Jack as the second option if his knee checks out. Bosa as the fall back if Ramsey is gone and Jack's knee is an issue.

If Ramsey is gone, Bosa is gone and Jacks knee is an issue it will likely come down to Spence and Hargreaves. Both of which would be considered reaches at 4. I would really like to give more thought towards Elliott but I just don't think they are going to pick a RB that high this year. I also think it is too early to take a QB that high. I think they wait at least 1 more year to take a QB with a premium pick and probably 2 more years.

Draft day surprises. I wont be surprised at all if the first QB off the board doesn't happen until pick 7. I also wont be surprised if Lynch is available at pick 34 and we still pass on him. I also wouldn't be surprised if Bosa slips out of the top 5.

Surprisingly, I think the most predictable pick in the draft is pick 8. Philly takes Elliott. Even more predictable than Tenn taking Tunsil. I would say pick 7 is the most predictable with SF taking a QB but they could take Wentz or Goff either one depending on what Cle does and I am not convinced Cle takes a qb at all.

This could be a great year to have pick 4 or a horrible year to have pick 4 depending on a couple of issues. Jack's knee and who the 3 teams ahead of us take. It is possible that teams picking after us end up with a better player than we take at 4 if we end up reaching for Spence or Hargreaves because we could not trade back and simply needed to fill a need. I think if we were picking lower than 4 the odds or taking Elliott would go up.

Our best chance at a trade back likely doesn't depend on the QB's. It likely depends on Tunsil. A lot of people are convinced Tenn takes him but I think they could surprise with Ramsey instead. This could create a problem for Cle if they have decided to pas on QB after signing RGIII.

Picking as high as 4 would seem to be be fairly predictable and most years it would be but this year is an exception. Jack's knee and the lack of QB needy teams up top combined with the lack of Elite QB prospects really throws conventional wisdom out the window.

This could be a year where we trade back and lose value in the trade but it is still the right thing to do. If we decide to take Spence or Hargreaves we could be desperate to trade back and lose the points game but still wind up with an extra pick in the mid 2nd or early 3rd rd that nets us a starting caliber player.

Here is an example. If we trade back into the 12 - 14 range to take Spence or Hargreaves then it should net us a 2nd and a 3rd based on the value chart but this is a year where it might make sense to do it for just a 2nd and at least then we could land an extra solid player rather than just reaching for Spence or Hargreaves at 4 and not getting the extra 2nd rd pick.

The most surprising thing that could happen with pick 4 to me is if Dallas just takes a QB. I would be shocked.

I just hope Ramsey falls to 4 or Jack's knee checks out. Then the direction we take should be much clearer but there is a part of me that really wants Tunsil to fall to 4 and let the phones start ringing.

 

[Fredd]

The way I see it, that kook Kelly being in SF puts them in play to jump over dallas...thus, I see Wentz and Goff being gone at 4...so, if tenn doesn't move and does the smart thing & draft Tunsil, we have a choice between Ramsey and Bosa, and if Ramsey is there, they take him

Note: Ramsey is my favorite player in the draft, much like Khalil Mack was in the 2014 draft for me (last year, there was too much real estate in front our 1st rounder for me to say who I liked the best, it wasn't Byron Jones, although I am thrilled with him now)

 

[Hardline]

I appreciate this post. But In every hypothetical the 2nd best player in the draft is still on the board in Zeke Elliott .

 

[Killerinstinct]

The way I see it, that kook Kelly being in SF puts them in play to jump over dallas...thus, I see Wentz and Goff being gone at 4...so, if tenn doesn't move and does the smart thing & draft Tunsil, we have a choice between Ramsey and Bosa, and if Ramsey is there, they take him

Note: Ramsey is my favorite player in the draft, much like Khalil Mack was in the 2014 draft for me (last year, there was too much real estate in front our 1st rounder for me to say who I liked the best, it wasn't Byron Jones, although I am thrilled with him now)

We agree on most. I also view Ramsey as my favorite pick in the draft. Where we differ is where the QB's go. I think there is a better chance both are available at 7 then there is that both go in the top 4. I see no reason for SF to trade up for QB and I even have doubts about Cle taking one at all.

 

[Kaiser]

but there is a part of me that really wants Tunsil to fall to 4 and let the phones start ringing.

Great post, its funny because the very last sentence is what I kept thinking while reading the post.

 

[Killerinstinct]

I appreciate this post. But In every hypothetical the 2nd best player in the draft is still on the board in Zeke Elliott .

I like Elliott too. I just think Dallas views the RB position in a different light and they proved that when they let the leading rusher in the NFL go via free agency when if they had tried to sign him earlier could have signed him for much less than he signed for in Philly. I bet they believe they can roll with what they have and have a great running game. I also think they see guys as late as the 4th rd that could be highly successful in this offense.

 

[Killerinstinct]

Great post, its funny because the very last sentence is what I kept thinking while reading the post.

HAHA I really love Ramsey but man if Tunsil is there at 4 we might be able to come out of it with a big haul.

 

[Kaiser]

HAHA I really love Ramsey but man if Tunsil is there at 4 we might be able to come out of it with a big haul.

Especially when there are so many positions we need like RB, QB, CB, WR, 1 Tech, etc that are very deep into the 2nd and 3rd rounds this year.

 

[Gaede]

SD really is a wild card.

Personally, I think they trade down with SF, who takes Goff, and we end up with Ramsey.

 

[Fredd]

We agree on most. I also view Ramsey as my favorite pick in the draft. Where we differ is where the QB's go. I think there is a better chance both are available at 7 then there is that both go in the top 4. I see no reason for SF to trade up for QB and I even have doubts about Cle taking one at all.

the way I see it, Cleveland is almost in a MUST draft a QB status...and, while I think Dallas could pull the trigger on Wentz if he is there, not so much for Goff...but, SF is dealing away Kap to Denver, unless something changed, so they NEED a QB...if one goes to Clev, they may panic and trade with SD to get one prior to Dallas

 

[Killerinstinct]

Especially when there are so many positions we need like RB, QB, CB, WR, 1 Tech, etc that are very deep into the 2nd and 3rd rounds this year.

I think if Tunsil falls to 4 we could end up with an extra 1st rd pick next year and a teams 1st and 2nd this year. Someone will overpay and we wont have to drop down very far either. Weeeeeeee! make it happen!

 

[Shunpike]

Both Wentz and Goff will be gone before the Dallas pick via trades. I think both QB's are nothing special so it is a good situation for Dallas to be in. They will get a blue chip player with the 4th pick.

 

[Killerinstinct]

the way I see it, Cleveland is almost in a MUST draft a QB status...and, while I think Dallas could pull the trigger on Wentz if he is there, not so much for Goff...but, SF is dealing away Kap to Denver, unless something changed, so they NEED a QB...if one goes to Clev, they may panic and trade with SD to get one prior to Dallas

I don't think Cle is in a much draft QB status at all. I think they are in a postion where if they think Wentz is elite they will draft him. If not they will roll with Mccown and RGIII. I also dont see any need for SF to jump the two teams behind us even if Cle does take Wentz. SF can stay at 7 and get Goff.

 

[Killerinstinct]

Both Wentz and Goff will be gone before the Dallas pick via trades. I think both QB's are nothing special so it is a good situation for Dallas to be in. They will get a blue chip player with the 4th pick.

This is a dream scenario but I don't see it happening. I hope it does but I doubt it.

 

[Fredd]

I don't think Cle is in a much draft QB status at all. I think they are in a postion where if they think Wentz is elite they will draft him. If not they will roll with Mccown and RGIII. I also dont see any need for SF to jump the two teams behind us even if Cle does take Wentz. SF can stay at 7 and get Goff.

well, I think that they want Goff overall, more than Wentz, so if Dallas floats it out there that QB is a priority in rd 1, then it could get interesting

 

[Killerinstinct]

well, I think that they want Goff overall, more than Wentz, so if Dallas floats it out there that QB is a priority in rd 1, then it could get interesting

You make a good point and they are bringing in all the QB's so maybe they are trying to send that message.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Ramsey cant catch and Bosa cant get sacks........not exactly the type of players you take at 4.....................I either want a QB or Zeke at pick 4

 

[ufcrules1]

Both Wentz and Goff will be gone before the Dallas pick via trades. I think both QB's are nothing special so it is a good situation for Dallas to be in. They will get a blue chip player with the 4th pick.

I really hope so. I don't care for either of these QB's either.

 

[Killerinstinct]

Ramsey cant catch and Bosa cant get sacks........not exactly the type of players you take at 4.....................I either want a QB or Zeke at pick 4

Ramsey has hands that would make a WR envious. This meme that he can't catch is lazy and uninformed. He was hardly ever thrown at and it is impossible to get int's that way. He might be the first db selected at no 1 since the 1950's. A tue elite talent in a draft with few elite players. We will be incredibly lucky if he is there at 4 and my bet is he wont.

 

[Killerinstinct]

I really hope so. I don't care for either of these QB's either.

I hope so too. it would guarantee that one of either Ramsey or Tunsil would be there at 4. Ramsey to draft or Tunsil to accumulate picks in a trade.
I think we are seeing the typical over-hyping of QB's by the media. The difference is this time teams aren't doing the same. I predict all qb's will still be on the board when we are on the clock and we still pass.