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Fri Feb. 10, 2017
2017 Draft Defined By Depth
As the NFL fully transitions into scouting mode, here’s a look at some central themes to the prospects, from the position of strength to one glaring weakness. Plus notes on the Niners, the 2017 opener and more
by Albert Breer
I was chastised by a few people—including co-workers—for being critical of the 2013 draft class in March and April of that year. And my stock response was that, from everything I’d heard, 2014 would make up for the lack of talent in 2013.
We know how that turned out. There have been more 2013 top-10 picks that have switched teams (three) than than have played in Pro Bowls (one). Meanwhile, 2014 brought us Jadeveon Clowney, Khalil Mack, Mike Evans, Anthony Barr, Odell Beckham, Aaron Donald, Zack Martin, C.J. Mosley, Derek Carr and many others.
So the good news for everyone five days after the Super Bowl: The way the 32 teams see it, the 2017 class they’re evaluating now is pretty damn close to what the 2014 group was going into the process.
“Depth-wise, it’s great,” said one AFC executive. “What I like about it is, if we do our job and have faith in our scouts, we can get starters into the fifth round.”
“It’s a very good draft,” added a top personnel executive for an NFC team. “If you’re in a position like Cleveland is with a lot of picks—and you still gotta pick the right guys—but it’s an excellent draft. Very deep across the board.”
Welcome to the first offseason edition of the Game Plan. Over the last few years my notes column hasn’t carried past the playing of games, so there’s going to be some tinkering here (basically, I’m throwing an “Under Construction” sign up). And as it’s normally set up, some elements are meant look forward to games, which obviously doesn’t work now. So bear with us. We’ll get it right.
We’re still going to hit on a bunch of different topics every week. This week, we’ll have more on Tom Brady’s ability to compartmentalize the emotion of last week, Steve Sarkisian as an NFL coach, where the Falcons go from here, the San Francisco staff setup, and much more.
But we’ll start with where the focus is for a lot of teams this week—looking forward to the draft. With plenty of teams in the midst of integrating coaches into the process, and meetings getting going, I called around in search of the defining characteristics of this year’s draft class with less than three weeks until the combine kicks off.
The first one that stuck out was the overall strength of the class. Here are six more …
• Mitch Trubisky is the leader among quarterbacks. There are two knocks on Trubisky: 1) Scouts aren’t sure how tall he’ll measure out, and 2) he only started one year at North Carolina, unable to beat out Marquise Williams before that. Taking that into account, Trubisky’s anticipation, accuracy, touch and experience with progression reads put him atop the class.
“I’ll be shocked if Trubisky’s not the first one off the board,” said our AFC exec. A scout for another AFC team added, “You’re gonna see the ascension of the Carolina quarterback. He’s the guy, a top-two or -three pick. He’s the guy. A lot of teams like him up there.”
So here’s the question: Are you comfortable taking an Andy Dalton or Teddy Bridgewater in the top five? The truth is, Trubisky’s promise is in offering a team stability—but not necessarily superstardom—at the most important position.
• You’re projecting with the rest of the QBs. One AFC college scouting director told me that DeShaun Watson is at least a year away from being able to run an NFL offense, and DeShone Kizer is two years away. Ex-Texas Tech teammates Patrick Mahomes and Davis Webb (who transferred to Cal) have talent, but both come from schemes that complicate their NFL transition. (Think Jared Goff.)
You’ll hear this is a bad quarterback draft. I’ve heard it from some people, and I’ve heard from others that it’s not as terrible as advertised. “It’s a good quarterback class,” said our NFC exec. “Realistically, all five of those guys go in the first two rounds.”
If that happens, it wouldn’t exactly be unprecedented, but that doesn’t happen every year. There have been five occasions (2014, ’12, ’11, ’07, ’06) since 2000 where five quarterbacks went inside the first two rounds, and only one (2011) where the number was higher than that.
• Joe Mixon is getting drafted. We’ve all seen the video. What Oklahoma’s Joe Mixon did in July 2014, on the day after his 18th birthday, was horrible and inexcusable. But what if that video hadn’t been released? Mixon probably is a candidate to go in the first round. And outside of an altercation over a parking ticket, Mixon’s kept his nose clean since.
“It needs to be the right market, a team that can handle the onslaught, the right PR staff, because you’ll have to weather the storm,” said one area scout assigned to the Sooners. “But the guy the Chiefs drafted [Tyreek Hill], Joe Mixon isn’t half the d-----bag that guy was. You’d have to search to find people that don’t like him. Maybe the parking-lot attendant. Everyone there loves him. And I believe them.”
It will take owner approval in this case. There are teams with history (like Baltimore) that simply won’t be able to draft Mixon. But this is a first-round prospect with Matt Forte/David Johnson potential as an every-down back. I think there’s a chance he goes before the Friday night of the draft is complete.
• The strength of the class is in the secondary and at running back. You’ve heard how this is an incredible year for running backs, and that remains true. Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook are lock first-rounders. If Christian McCaffrey runs the low 4.4/high 4.3 range, scouts expect he’ll be with them. (“Belichick never trades up,” said our NFC exec. “Bill may trade up for this kid.”) And there’s depth at the position, too.
So it’s interesting that it might not even be this class’ strongest group. At safety, Ohio State’s Malik Hooker and LSU’s Jamal Adams are both top-10 prospects. As many as five corners (Marshon Lattimore, Quincy Wilson, Teez Tabor, Marlon Humphrey, Sidney Jones) have a shot at going in the top 20. And at both secondardy positions there are other players who have a fighting chance at getting into the first round. If you need a top-shelf defensive back, you can find one in April.
• There are numbers at receiver and tight end. Alabama tight end O.J. Howard and Clemson wide receiver Mike Williams both have a chance to be picked in the top half of the first round. One factor that could hold each of them back—the strong numbers at their positions, which might just prompt teams to wait to fill needs at those spots.
At tight end, there is the raw freak athlete (David Njoku), more traditional tight ends (Jake Butt), and move-type H-backs (Jordan Leggett, Evan Engram). At receiver, there are polished prospects (Corey Davis) and game-breakers (John Ross). And the supply at both positions should run into the third and fourth rounds.
• The class does have a glaring weakness. That weakness is along the offensive line. The tackle crop isn’t as strong as usual, the guard group is shallow, and good luck finding centers. Worse, the fear in the NFL is that it’s not only a bad year but also a sign of things to come. “It’s a trend coming,” said our AFC exec, “because of the spread offense and all the rules on practicing.”
Outside of that? There’s not a lot of depth at inside linebacker, and the aforementioned debate at quarterback. Like we said, it’s not a bad year to have a lot of picks.
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/10/nfl-draft-depth-talent-prospects-notebook
--------------
Not having that Matt Cassel pick is going to sting.
2017 Draft Defined By Depth
As the NFL fully transitions into scouting mode, here’s a look at some central themes to the prospects, from the position of strength to one glaring weakness. Plus notes on the Niners, the 2017 opener and more
by Albert Breer
I was chastised by a few people—including co-workers—for being critical of the 2013 draft class in March and April of that year. And my stock response was that, from everything I’d heard, 2014 would make up for the lack of talent in 2013.
We know how that turned out. There have been more 2013 top-10 picks that have switched teams (three) than than have played in Pro Bowls (one). Meanwhile, 2014 brought us Jadeveon Clowney, Khalil Mack, Mike Evans, Anthony Barr, Odell Beckham, Aaron Donald, Zack Martin, C.J. Mosley, Derek Carr and many others.
So the good news for everyone five days after the Super Bowl: The way the 32 teams see it, the 2017 class they’re evaluating now is pretty damn close to what the 2014 group was going into the process.
“Depth-wise, it’s great,” said one AFC executive. “What I like about it is, if we do our job and have faith in our scouts, we can get starters into the fifth round.”
“It’s a very good draft,” added a top personnel executive for an NFC team. “If you’re in a position like Cleveland is with a lot of picks—and you still gotta pick the right guys—but it’s an excellent draft. Very deep across the board.”
Welcome to the first offseason edition of the Game Plan. Over the last few years my notes column hasn’t carried past the playing of games, so there’s going to be some tinkering here (basically, I’m throwing an “Under Construction” sign up). And as it’s normally set up, some elements are meant look forward to games, which obviously doesn’t work now. So bear with us. We’ll get it right.
We’re still going to hit on a bunch of different topics every week. This week, we’ll have more on Tom Brady’s ability to compartmentalize the emotion of last week, Steve Sarkisian as an NFL coach, where the Falcons go from here, the San Francisco staff setup, and much more.
But we’ll start with where the focus is for a lot of teams this week—looking forward to the draft. With plenty of teams in the midst of integrating coaches into the process, and meetings getting going, I called around in search of the defining characteristics of this year’s draft class with less than three weeks until the combine kicks off.
The first one that stuck out was the overall strength of the class. Here are six more …
• Mitch Trubisky is the leader among quarterbacks. There are two knocks on Trubisky: 1) Scouts aren’t sure how tall he’ll measure out, and 2) he only started one year at North Carolina, unable to beat out Marquise Williams before that. Taking that into account, Trubisky’s anticipation, accuracy, touch and experience with progression reads put him atop the class.
“I’ll be shocked if Trubisky’s not the first one off the board,” said our AFC exec. A scout for another AFC team added, “You’re gonna see the ascension of the Carolina quarterback. He’s the guy, a top-two or -three pick. He’s the guy. A lot of teams like him up there.”
So here’s the question: Are you comfortable taking an Andy Dalton or Teddy Bridgewater in the top five? The truth is, Trubisky’s promise is in offering a team stability—but not necessarily superstardom—at the most important position.
• You’re projecting with the rest of the QBs. One AFC college scouting director told me that DeShaun Watson is at least a year away from being able to run an NFL offense, and DeShone Kizer is two years away. Ex-Texas Tech teammates Patrick Mahomes and Davis Webb (who transferred to Cal) have talent, but both come from schemes that complicate their NFL transition. (Think Jared Goff.)
You’ll hear this is a bad quarterback draft. I’ve heard it from some people, and I’ve heard from others that it’s not as terrible as advertised. “It’s a good quarterback class,” said our NFC exec. “Realistically, all five of those guys go in the first two rounds.”
If that happens, it wouldn’t exactly be unprecedented, but that doesn’t happen every year. There have been five occasions (2014, ’12, ’11, ’07, ’06) since 2000 where five quarterbacks went inside the first two rounds, and only one (2011) where the number was higher than that.
• Joe Mixon is getting drafted. We’ve all seen the video. What Oklahoma’s Joe Mixon did in July 2014, on the day after his 18th birthday, was horrible and inexcusable. But what if that video hadn’t been released? Mixon probably is a candidate to go in the first round. And outside of an altercation over a parking ticket, Mixon’s kept his nose clean since.
“It needs to be the right market, a team that can handle the onslaught, the right PR staff, because you’ll have to weather the storm,” said one area scout assigned to the Sooners. “But the guy the Chiefs drafted [Tyreek Hill], Joe Mixon isn’t half the d-----bag that guy was. You’d have to search to find people that don’t like him. Maybe the parking-lot attendant. Everyone there loves him. And I believe them.”
It will take owner approval in this case. There are teams with history (like Baltimore) that simply won’t be able to draft Mixon. But this is a first-round prospect with Matt Forte/David Johnson potential as an every-down back. I think there’s a chance he goes before the Friday night of the draft is complete.
• The strength of the class is in the secondary and at running back. You’ve heard how this is an incredible year for running backs, and that remains true. Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook are lock first-rounders. If Christian McCaffrey runs the low 4.4/high 4.3 range, scouts expect he’ll be with them. (“Belichick never trades up,” said our NFC exec. “Bill may trade up for this kid.”) And there’s depth at the position, too.
So it’s interesting that it might not even be this class’ strongest group. At safety, Ohio State’s Malik Hooker and LSU’s Jamal Adams are both top-10 prospects. As many as five corners (Marshon Lattimore, Quincy Wilson, Teez Tabor, Marlon Humphrey, Sidney Jones) have a shot at going in the top 20. And at both secondardy positions there are other players who have a fighting chance at getting into the first round. If you need a top-shelf defensive back, you can find one in April.
• There are numbers at receiver and tight end. Alabama tight end O.J. Howard and Clemson wide receiver Mike Williams both have a chance to be picked in the top half of the first round. One factor that could hold each of them back—the strong numbers at their positions, which might just prompt teams to wait to fill needs at those spots.
At tight end, there is the raw freak athlete (David Njoku), more traditional tight ends (Jake Butt), and move-type H-backs (Jordan Leggett, Evan Engram). At receiver, there are polished prospects (Corey Davis) and game-breakers (John Ross). And the supply at both positions should run into the third and fourth rounds.
• The class does have a glaring weakness. That weakness is along the offensive line. The tackle crop isn’t as strong as usual, the guard group is shallow, and good luck finding centers. Worse, the fear in the NFL is that it’s not only a bad year but also a sign of things to come. “It’s a trend coming,” said our AFC exec, “because of the spread offense and all the rules on practicing.”
Outside of that? There’s not a lot of depth at inside linebacker, and the aforementioned debate at quarterback. Like we said, it’s not a bad year to have a lot of picks.
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/10/nfl-draft-depth-talent-prospects-notebook
--------------
Not having that Matt Cassel pick is going to sting.
