Breer - How the Cowboys Will Cope Without Ezekiel Elliott

Plankton

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https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/11/02/jimmy-garoppolo-trade-san-francisco-49ers-mmqb

1. What the Cowboys will do without Zeke. Because the situation is fluid—and has been for months—it has to be mentioned that the Second Circuit could grant Ezekiel Elliott an injunction before this weekend, and he could, hypothetically, still not miss a game. But the likelihood is that he will, and that means the makeup of the Cowboys team will change to some degree. How much depends on how the backs in his place perform.

For right now, the expectation internally is that Alfred Morris will be the lead back, with Darren McFadden platooning on run downs, and Rod Smith playing a role on passing downs. The real difference, as the Dallas staff sees it, will come from a game management standpoint. For all Elliott’s strengths, the coaches see his efficiency as a runner. “If you run on first down,” one staffer says, “you’re almost guaranteed 3-4 yards.”

To translate, that means that the coaches, for the last year-and-a-half, could pretty much pull a lever and create 2nd-and-6. For a young quarterback like Dak Prescott, that’s enormous, because it limits a defense’s ability to be creative in pressuring him and keeps them off-balance in general. For a play-caller, it means having an open playbook on a down-to-down basis, without having to worry about getting into third-and-manageable or out of third-and-long nearly as much. And yes, the offensive line is still intact, and the backs remaining are hardly incompetent. But pending appeal, this is a loss for sure.
 

percyhoward

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Except it wasn't true for all but the last 10 quarters or so of this season.
That's right, and the offensive production changed very little in those last 10 quarters anyway.

Elliott Yards per Carry on 1st Down

First 4 1/2 games
50 carries, 140 yards (2.8 ypc)

Last 2 1/2 games
44 carries, 273 yards (6.2 ypc)

Dallas Offense
First 4 1/2 games
47 drives, 1626 yards, 117 points
34.6 yards per drive
2.49 points per drive
(w/o 1 drive starting inside opp 30
2.39 points per drive)
Drive Success Rate:
91 first downs on 123 down series (.740)

Last 2 1/2 games
26 drives, 953 yards, 78 points
36.7 yards per drive
3.00 points per drive
(w/o 4 drives starting inside opp 30
2.45 points per drive)
Drive Success Rate:
55 first downs on 75 down series (.733)

Use halftime of the Green Bay game as the dividing point. Our yards would have ranked us 5th before then, 3rd since then. If you filter out the drives that began inside the opponent's 30-yard line, our points would have ranked us 5th before then, 3rd since then. Our drive success rate would have ranked us 2nd before then, 5th since then. It's basically a wash. At the very least, this was a Top 5 offense even when Zeke was struggling on first down.

That said, part of the reason it was a Top 5 offense even then was that Zeke was so good in short yardage and in the passing game. I think the offense will miss that more than it will miss Zeke's first-down run production, and that's even if his replacements have as little success as he had most of the season on first down.
 

dwreck27

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hmmmmm rely on who we have? Maybe see if Dak can open it up more with passing??

I mean we still have our Oline and were going to still commit to the run We did that before zeke and we will without him these next few weeks
 

Idgit

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That's right, and the offensive production changed very little in those last 10 quarters anyway.

Elliott Yards per Carry on 1st Down

First 4 1/2 games
50 carries, 140 yards (2.8 ypc)

Last 2 1/2 games
44 carries, 273 yards (6.2 ypc)

Dallas Offense
First 4 1/2 games
47 drives, 1626 yards, 117 points
34.6 yards per drive
2.49 points per drive
(w/o 1 drive starting inside opp 30
2.39 points per drive)
Drive Success Rate:
91 first downs on 123 down series (.740)

Last 2 1/2 games
26 drives, 953 yards, 78 points
36.7 yards per drive
3.00 points per drive
(w/o 4 drives starting inside opp 30
2.45 points per drive)
Drive Success Rate:
55 first downs on 75 down series (.733)

Use halftime of the Green Bay game as the dividing point. Our yards would have ranked us 5th before then, 3rd since then. If you filter out the drives that began inside the opponent's 30-yard line, our points would have ranked us 5th before then, 3rd since then. Our drive success rate would have ranked us 2nd before then, 5th since then. It's basically a wash. At the very least, this was a Top 5 offense even when Zeke was struggling on first down.

That said, part of the reason it was a Top 5 offense even then was that Zeke was so good in short yardage and in the passing game. I think the offense will miss that more than it will miss Zeke's first-down run production, and that's even if his replacements have as little success as he had most of the season on first down.

Sort of completely unsurprising based on all the other threads we've seen on the topic, right?

Short yardage, I'm thinking they go with Dak sneaking if its short enough. Not sure what the do on passing downs. That's not Morris, so it's either McFadden, Smith, or Switzer, I guess.
 

percyhoward

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Short yardage will be interesting.

Conversion rate
3rd or 4th down, 1-2 yards to go
Morris
--(pre-Dallas) 23 of 34 (67.6%)
--(with Dallas) 2 of 3 (66.7%)
McFadden
--(pre-Dallas) 14 of 30 (46.7%)
--(with Dallas) 15 of 19 (78.9%)

2014 Murray 19 of 26 (73.1%)
2016-17 Elliott 23 of 31 (74.2%)
 

Hawkeye19

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RB is the deepest part of our roster. What other NFL team can claim three 1,000 yard rushers, two pro bowlers, and a guy with some nice upside like Rod Smith?

They all get the benefit of running behind a great OL that is finally clicking-- and although Zeke is obviously elite-- I just don't see production in the running game as our biggest problem with Zeke sidelined.

Defense. We need to get better against the run-- and we need to tighten things up collectively in the secondary.
 

Diehardblues

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With the gaping holes our OL creates I’m not overly concerned. Many plays he wasn’t touched until he reached the secondary .What we’ll miss the most is the explosive speed once he’s in the secondary.
 

birdwells1

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Short yardage will be interesting.

Conversion rate
3rd or 4th down, 1-2 yards to go
Morris
--(pre-Dallas) 23 of 34 (67.6%)
--(with Dallas) 2 of 3 (66.7%)
McFadden
--(pre-Dallas) 14 of 30 (46.7%)
--(with Dallas) 15 of 19 (78.9%)

2014 Murray 19 of 26 (73.1%)
2016-17 Elliott 23 of 31 (74.2%)

This reminds me of the playoff game in GB when we threw the ball to T. Williams on third and 1.
 
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