News: BTB: 2014 Strength Of Schedule: Did Cowboys And Eagles Benefit From Soft Starts?

[NewsBot]

An early schedule that looked formidable going into the season turned out to be much softer than expected. Or is that just hindsight talking?

2-2, 1-3, 1-2, and 1-3. Those are the records of the four teams the Cowboys have faced so far this year. That combined opponent W/L record of 5-10 means a winning percentage of .333, the third lowest any team in the league has faced through Week 4. The only two teams to have faced softer schedules are the Texans and the Eagles, who both compiled their 3-1 records against teams with a combined 0.313 winning percentage (5-11).

We get a similar picture when we look at the combined points differential of each team's opponents. The Cowboys' opponents have a combined -95 points differential, the second lowest total in the league, while the Eagles have the third lowest total in the league with a -68 opponent point differential. Leading all teams are the Colts with a combined -118 opponent points differential (note that both the Colts and the Eagles have played the Jaguars this year, while the Cowboys have yet to do so).

Before we get any deeper into Strength of Schedule (SOS) discussions, here's something to keep in mind: To a large degree, a team's strength of schedule is determined by its own W/L record.

Take the 3-1 Cowboys. Assuming they were 1-3 instead of 3-1, their combined opponent W/L record would be 7-8 (.466) instead of 5-10 (.333). That's quite a significant swing based on your own winning percentage alone, which in very simple terms means that the more games you win, the softer your SOS gets - and vice versa.

The rest of the season:

If you're worried that the soft start will lead to a tough schedule down the road for the Cowboys, you don't really need to be. The Cowboys' opponents for the remainder of the season currently have a combined winning percentage of 0.522 (24-22), which gives the Cowboys a remaining schedule that (at this point in time) is barely above .500 in terms of opponent W/L record.

The remaining schedule is not that much different for the remaining NFC East teams. The Commanders and Eagles face opponents whose combined winning percentage currently stands at 0.556 (25-20), while the Giants face a slightly softer remaining schedule at .500 (23-23).

All of this data is summarized in the table below. For your convenience, the table is sortable and the NFC East teams are highlighted with colored rows. Click on any of the column sub-headers (W, L, %, PD) to sort the table in ascending or descending order.

2014 Strength Of Schedule by team (click column subheaders to sort)​

Teams Opponent records Weeks 1-4 Opponent records Weeks 5-17
W L % Point Diff. W L % Point Diff.
SF 11 4 0.733 60 20 22 0.476 149
NYG 10 5 0.667 50 23 23 0.500 108
TEN 10 5 0.667 140 21 26 0.447 106
SEA 7 4 0.636 43 25 23 0.521 47
BUF 10 6 0.625 50 20 26 0.435 20
ARI 7 5 0.583 50 24 23 0.511 119
BAL 8 6 0.571 19 21 25 0.457 -24
JAC 9 7 0.563 84 26 20 0.565 29
CAR 9 7 0.563 17 22 23 0.489 -2
DEN 6 5 0.545 81 24 25 0.490 -26
NO 8 7 0.533 51 25 22 0.532 7
GB 8 7 0.533 15 24 24 0.500 -25
OAK 8 8 0.500 -8 25 17 0.595 28
STL 6 6 0.500 -11 27 20 0.574 11
WAS 8 8 0.500 -44 25 20 0.556 56
CLE 6 6 0.500 26 24 26 0.480 -18
CIN 6 6 0.500 11 22 27 0.449 -27
SD 7 7 0.500 -52 19 26 0.422 11
ATL 7 8 0.467 -8 24 22 0.522 -26
TB 7 8 0.467 -36 23 23 0.500 -36
PIT 7 8 0.467 -30 22 23 0.489 60
KC 7 8 0.467 -53 21 23 0.477 33
CHI 7 9 0.438 -18 25 23 0.521 -48
NYJ 7 9 0.438 -41 24 23 0.511 -76
DET 7 9 0.438 -32 23 24 0.489 -25
IND 6 9 0.400 -118 24 22 0.522 -2
MIN 6 9 0.400 -36 23 25 0.479 -47
NE 6 10 0.375 -23 25 21 0.543 -74
MIA 6 10 0.375 -35 23 24 0.489 -87

DAL 5 10 0.333 -95 24 22 0.522 -70​

PHI 5 11 0.313 -68 25 20 0.556 -53
HOU 5 11 0.313 -50 21 25 0.457 -57​

So, did the Cowboys and Eagles benefit from soft starts? We saw above that a team's SOS over the first four weeks is in large part a result of its own W&/L record. In hindsight, it looks like both the Eagles and the Cowboys have played soft schedules so far, but if both teams were at 1-3, nobody would be talking about a soft schedule.

Also, if you were to take last year's W/L record as a measure of opponent strength, the Cowboys' four opponents combined for a 37-27 record in 2013, and that .578 winning percentage would move the Cowboys much closer to the top of the table above.

Four weeks is probably too short a period to make any meaningful conclusions about SOS. Collectively we may feel very good about the Cowboys' 3-1 record, just as we collectively may look down our noses at Philly's 3-1 record (achieved against the lowly Jaguars and Commanders, and with the help of the referees against the Colts), but at the end of the day, the wins are in the books and it doesn't matter how they were achieved.

Ultimately, you can only play the teams on your schedule, whoever those teams may be, and whatevere those teams' W/L record might look like at any given time. You just need to be care not to assume that because you won three out of your first four games, you'll automatically win nine out of your remaining 12 games.

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