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With just one game left on the 2015 schedule, the Cowboys draft spot remains very fluid.
As it stands today, the 4-11 Cowboys hold the fourth overall draft pick. But the final game of the season can still see the Cowboys move up or down the draft order. Here are the teams currently picking first through eighth, based on the full 16-game opponent strength of schedule:
1. TEN, 3-12 (.492)
2. CLE, 3-12 (.536)
3. SD, 4-11 (.523)
4. DAL, 4-11 (.529)
5. SF, 4-11 (.552)
6. JAC 5-10 (.471)
7. MIA, 5-10 (.475)
8. BAL, 5-10 (.506)
The ninth team in the draft order, the Buccaneers, already has six wins. So even in a scenario where the Cowboys win their season finale against the Commanders, they would end up 5-11 and wouldn't drop below the eighth overall spot.
There's also a chance the Cowboys could move up to the second overall pick, but that would require a lot of things to fall the Cowboys' way.
- The Cowboys have to lose against the Commanders. That can be done, even if the Commanders bench Kirk Cousins and half their starting offense.
- The Chargers have to win in Denver. That's a tall order, but in a season of wacky outcomes, why not?
- The Browns have to beat the visiting Steelers. The Steelers lost against the Ravens, why not against the Browns as well?
- But even if all of that happens, the Cowboys would still have an opponent strength of Schedule (SOS) of .533, while the Browns would be at .531, and keep their spot ahead of the Cowboys, so the Cowboys need another game to go their way: The Jets have to win in Buffalo. If that happens, in addition to everything outlined above, the Cowboys' SOS would drop to .5328, while the Browns' SOS would climb to .5331.
Losses by the Packers and Seahawks would further improve the Cowboys' SOS, but with the Cowboys' luck this season, there's no way the scenario described above actually happens. Even if the Cowboys were to lose against the Commanders next week, they'll very likely stay locked into the fourth overall pick.
But what happens if they win against the Commanders?
Ultimately, that depends on what the four teams below the Cowboys (SF, JAC, MIA, BAL) do in Week 17. If all four lose, the Cowboys drop all the way to the eighth spot, based on their strong SOS. A win by any of the four teams equals a one-spot improvement in the draft order for the Cowboys.
But do you think this Cowboys team can pull off a win against the Commanders, even a Commanders team resting a bunch of its starters?
Here's the full draft order with the results of the Sunday games included (Strength of schedule based on full 16-game schedule)
Order Team Record Opp. Strength Of Schedule
1
Tennessee Titans 1
3-12 0.492
2
Cleveland Browns 2
3-12 0.536
3
San Diego Chargers 3
4-11 0.523
4
Dallas Cowboys 4
4-11 0.529
5
San Francisco 49ers 5
4-11 0.552
6
Jacksonville Jaguars 6
5-10 0.471
7
Miami Dolphins 7
5-10 0.475
8
Baltimore Ravens 8
5-10 0.506
9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9
6-9 0.483
10
New York Giants 10
6-9 0.492
11
New Orleans Saints 11
6-9 0.508
12
Philadelphia Eagles 12
6-9 0.513
13
Detroit Lions 13
6-9 0.536
14
Chicago Bears 14
6-9 0.544
15
Indianapolis Colts 15
7-8 0.498
16
Buffalo Bills 16
7-8 0.510
17
Oakland Raiders 17
7-8 0.511
18
St. Louis Rams 18
7-8 0.527
19
Atlanta Falcons 19
8-7 0.471
20
Washington Commanders 20
8-7 0.471
21
Houston Texans 21
8-7 0.498
22
Pittsburgh Steelers 22
9-6 0.511
23
Seattle Seahawks 23
9-6 0.527
24
New York Jets 24
10-5 0.438
25
Kansas City Chiefs 25
10-5 0.494
26
Minnesota Vikings 26
10-5 0.510
27
Green Bay Packers 27
10-5 0.527
28
Denver Broncos 28
10-4 0.506
29
Cincinnati Bengals 29
11-3 0.473
30
New England Patriots (forfeited pick) 30
12-3 0.460
31
Arizona Cardinals 31
13-2 0.469
32
Carolina Panthers 32
14-1 0.442
* Atlanta wins tiebreak vs. Washington on division recordReminder: These are the rules for determining the draft order for the 2016 draft:
- Teams that make the playoffs receive the last 12 draft picks from position 21-32, ordered by which round of the playoffs they were eliminated.
- Teams that didn't make the playoffs are ordered by their regular season W/L record.
- The tiebreaker for teams with identical records is the Strength of Schedule or Opponent W/L record. For the draft order, the lower SOS results in an earlier pick.
- If the SOS does not resolve a tie, a division and then conference tiebreaker is used. If that fails as well, draft order is determined by a coin toss during the combine.
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