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In a ten-part series, we are going to take a comprehensive look at the Cowboys and how they might get better in 2017. This is part eight(a).
In part one of this 10-part series, we set the ground rules by discussing the Cowboys’ team-building philosophy. In parts two, three, and four, we looked at where the Cowboys are strong, okay, and weak. In part five, we showed how the Cowboys can create cap space to sign in-house and outside free agents. In part six, we divided the Cowboys’ in-house free agents into three piles, likely to keep, possible keepers, and unlikely to keep. In part seven, we looked at the external free agent options on offense. On defense, we’re going to divide the secondary from the defensive line. This part will discuss the secondary. Part 8b will discuss the defensive line. The Cowboys don’t really have free agent needs at linebacker.
What holes does Dallas need to fill with free agents on defense?
Before looking at the free agents available, we need to recall two things. First, let’s revisit the ground rules by which the Cowboys operate. In the first article in this series, we talked about five elements of the Cowboy’s team philosophy. The last three are relevant here.
3. Plug holes through free agency, but don’t break the bank.
4. Go into the draft with holes filled, so you can take the best player available.
5. Stay young. Don’t re-sign any player over 30.
The most important of these is #4 - to use free agency to fill holes so the team can draft the best player available when their turn comes. OCC’s article on Will McClay reaffirms this point.
That leads us to the second point - the fourth article in this series where we identified the Cowboys’ holes. On defense, the Cowboys have two big holes - cornerback and safety. They also need to upgrade the pass rush, but with seven linemen under contract, they could survive by focusing on the draft. As long as Jaylon Smith returns, they are in the best shape at linebacker.
Dallas has plenty of internal options to fill these slots. The question is whether they can A) do better, and/or B) find someone as good on a more affordable deal.
Cornerback
Dallas only has Orlando Scandrick and Anthony Brown as starting caliber cornerbacks. They absolutely have to either bring back Brandon Carr (1,015 snaps) or Mo Claiborne (408 snaps), or pick up a free agent because that’s too many snaps to expect from rookies. Claiborne’s health history would make him okay as an extra, but not as a reliable starter. With one free agent able to provide 700-1,000 snaps, Dallas could then draft someone to fill in and to groom.
Who is available? Once again, we’re relying on Spotrac.
CORNERBACKS
AGE
TEAM
2016 AAV
MARKET VALUE
Trumaine Johnson
Trumaine Johnson
27
LA
$13,952,000
Market Value
Brandon Carr
Brandon Carr
30
DAL
$10,020,000
Market Value
Sam Shields
Sam Shields
29
GB
$9,750,000
-
Tramon Williams
Tramon Williams
33
CLE
$7,000,000
-
Prince Amukamara
Prince Amukamara
27
JAC
$5,500,000
Market Value
Captain Munnerlyn
Captain Munnerlyn
28
MIN
$3,750,000
-
Justin Gilbert
Justin Gilbert
25
PIT
$3,208,376
-
Leodis McKelvin
Leodis McKelvin
31
PHI
$3,100,000
-
Stephon Gilmore
Stephon Gilmore
26
BUF
$3,021,038
Market Value
Morris Claiborne
Morris Claiborne
27
DAL
$3,000,000
-
D.J. Hayden
D.J. Hayden
26
OAK
$2,580,925
-
Terence Newman
Terence Newman
38
MIN
$2,500,000
-
Darius Butler
Darius Butler
30
IND
$2,500,000
Market Value
Nolan Carroll
Nolan Carroll
30
PHI
$2,360,000
-
Dre Kirkpatrick
Dre Kirkpatrick
27
CIN
$2,155,699
-
Josh Robinson
Josh Robinson
26
TB
$2,000,000
-
Jerraud Powers
Jerraud Powers
29
BAL
$1,750,000
-
A.J. Bouye
A.J. Bouye
25
HOU
$1,671,000
Market Value
Antwon Blake
Antwon Blake
26
TEN
$1,500,000
-
Leon Hall
Leon Hall
32
NYG
$1,500,000
-
Johnthan Banks
Johnthan Banks
27
CHI
$1,181,580
-
Teddy Williams
Teddy Williams
28
CAR
$900,000
-
Mike Jenkins
Mike Jenkins
31
ARI
$885,000
-
Corey White
Corey White
26
BUF
$840,000
-
Greg Toler
Greg Toler
32
WAS
$840,000
-
Kyle Wilson
Kyle Wilson
29
NO
$840,000
-
Chykie Brown
Chykie Brown
30
CIN
$760,000
-
Sterling Moore
Sterling Moore
27
NO
$760,000
-
Leonard Johnson
Leonard Johnson
26
CAR
$760,000
-
Coty Sensabaugh
Coty Sensabaugh
28
NYG
$760,000
-
Brandon Boykin
Brandon Boykin
26
CIN
$760,000
-
Joshua Thomas
Joshua Thomas
27
DAL
$760,000
-
Asa Jackson
Asa Jackson
27
DET
$760,000
-
Crezdon Butler
Crezdon Butler
29
DET
$760,000
-
Robert McClain
Robert McClain
28
LAC
$752,500
-
Logan Ryan
Logan Ryan
26
NE
$693,313
Market Value
Kayvon Webster
Kayvon Webster
26
DEN
$686,450
Market Value
Antonio Allen
Antonio Allen
28
NYJ
$675,000
-
Neiko Thorpe
Neiko Thorpe
27
SEA
$675,000
-
Darryl Morris
Darryl Morris
26
IND
$675,000
-
Blidi Wreh-Wilson
Blidi Wreh-Wilson
27
ATL
$675,000
-
Dwayne Gratz
Dwayne Gratz
26
PHI
$675,000
-
Trevin Wade
Trevin Wade
27
NYG
$630,000
-
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu
23
MIA
$584,325
-
Marcus Cooper
Marcus Cooper
27
ARI
$551,474
-
If you assume Dallas isn’t going to break the bank on a free agent cornerback, that rules out Stephon Gilmore ($14.6M estimate), Logan Ryan ($14.4M), Trumain Johnson ($12.4M), AJ Bouye ($11.4M), and Prince Amukamara ($10.9M), even if you want to quibble with those numbers. Of the three others with market value estimates:
Brandon Carr, at $5.8M, would be affordable. He’s 30, so he would break the over-30 rule, but he’s also been extremely reliable and the Cowboys know him, so he’s a viable option. It wouldn’t be an upgrade, which the Cowboys need to improve their real quarterback rating differential, but Carr could provide a bridge if Dallas drafted well at this position. His Pro Football Focus grade was 75.3.
Darius Butler is even more affordable, at $3.3M, and graded 82.6 by PFF, but he’s also 30, which is a strike against him. He also played only 472 snaps, or not many more than Mo Claiborne. He played in 12 games, starting seven. As a fourth cornerback, he could be an option, but he’s never been a regular starter.
Kavon Webster is estimated at $1.7M, but he wasn’t rated very highly by Pro Football Focus, and he’s never been a starter.
Looking at Pro Football Focus ratings for the remaining under-30 cornerbacks, the only ones rated in the 70s or above were:
Jerraud Powers, 29, Baltimore. Rating 70.3. 508 snaps.
Dre Kirkpatrick, 27, Cincinnati. Rating 74.7. 974 snaps. Looks like the best option, if he’s affordable. Michael Sisemore of BTB ran a profile on him last month.
Darryl Morris, 26, Indianapolis. Rating 74.3. 360 snaps.
Captain Munnerlyn, 28, Minnesota. Rating 75.5. 637 snaps.
There isn’t a great deal to choose from here, unless someone on this list is much better than their PFF rating.
Given this landscape, it would not be surprising to see Brandon Carr back in Dallas for a couple more years, assuming he still wants to play. Dre Kirkpatrick would probably be better, but will he get the kind of contract Dallas does not like doling out?
Safety
Dallas has Byron Jones, Jeff Heath, and Kavon Frazier. Barry Church was the glue last year, and JJ Wilcox was the hitter. A free agent and a draft pick are needed here.
Here are the guys ranked as free safeties.
FREE SAFETIES
AGE
TEAM
2016 AAV
MARKET VALUE
Eric Berry
Eric Berry
28
KC
$10,806,000
Market Value
Christopher Conte
Christopher Conte
28
TB
$3,000,000
-
Nate Allen
Nate Allen
29
OAK
$3,000,000
-
Bradley McDougald
Bradley McDougald
26
TB
$2,553,000
-
Rashad Johnson
Rashad Johnson
31
TEN
$2,000,000
-
Rafael Bush
Rafael Bush
29
DET
$1,500,000
-
Anthony Levine
Anthony Levine
29
BAL
$1,100,000
-
Colin Jones
Colin Jones
29
CAR
$927,500
-
Michael Griffin
Michael Griffin
32
CAR
$885,000
-
Dashon Goldson
Dashon Goldson
32
ATL
$885,000
-
Sergio Brown
Sergio Brown
28
BUF
$760,000
-
J.J. Wilcox
J.J. Wilcox
28
DAL
$702,767
-
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
27
MIA
$675,000
-
Don Jones
Don Jones
26
HOU
$675,000
-
Duke Williams
Duke Williams
26
IND
$675,000
-
Jordan Poyer
Jordan Poyer
25
CLE
$555,064
-
Jonathan Meeks
Jonathan Meeks
27
BUF
$550,000
-
If Byron Jones is your free safety, the Cowboys may not be looking at this list, especially since Jeff Heath tends to play free safety when he’s in.
Here are the guys ranked as strong safeties.
STRONG SAFETY
AGE
TEAM
2016 AAV
MARKET VALUE
Jahleel Addae
Jahleel Addae
27
LAC
$2,553,000
Market Value
Mike Adams
Mike Adams
35
IND
$2,425,000
-
Barry Church
Barry Church
29
DAL
$2,206,750
Market Value
Matt Elam
Matt Elam
25
BAL
$1,691,751
-
Tony Jefferson
Tony Jefferson
25
ARI
$1,671,000
Market Value
D.J. Swearinger
D.J. Swearinger
25
ARI
$1,671,000
-
Quintin Demps
Quintin Demps
31
HOU
$1,500,000
-
John Cyprien
John Cyprien
26
JAC
$1,367,276
Market Value
Roman Harper
Roman Harper
34
NO
$1,065,000
-
Donte Whitner
Donte Whitner
31
WAS
$985,000
-
Jamarca Sanford
Jamarca Sanford
31
NO
$965,000
-
James Ihedigbo
James Ihedigbo
33
BUF
$885,000
-
Robert Blanton
Robert Blanton
27
BUF
$840,000
-
Chris Prosinski
Chris Prosinski
29
CHI
$840,000
-
Brynden Trawick
Brynden Trawick
27
OAK
$825,000
-
Shiloh Keo
Shiloh Keo
29
NO
$760,000
-
Jeron Johnson
Jeron Johnson
28
SEA
$760,000
-
T.J. McDonald
T.J. McDonald
26
LA
$731,570
-
Kelcie McCray
Kelcie McCray
28
SEA
$717,500
-
Duron Harmon
Duron Harmon
26
NE
$677,775
-
Duke Ihenacho
Duke Ihenacho
27
WAS
$675,000
-
Bacarri Rambo
Bacarri Rambo
26
MIA
$675,000
-
Josh Evans
Josh Evans
25
WAS
$675,000
-
Shamarko Thomas
Shamarko Thomas
26
PIT
$653,288
-
Micah Hyde
Micah Hyde
26
GB
$584,527
-
Kemal Ishmael
Kemal Ishmael
25
ATL
$551,474
-
Daimion Stafford
Daimion Stafford
26
TEN
$551,474
-
On this list, the guys with estimated market value include:
Tony Jefferson, 25, Arizona, $5.7M. PFF 88.6, 928 snaps.
John Cyprien, 26, Jacksonville, $4.9M, PFF 87.8, 1070 snaps.
Barry Church, 29, Dallas, $4.5M, PFF 85.3, 675 snaps.
Jaheel Addae, 27, San Diego, $4.5M. 85.2, 510 snaps.
Dallas would benefit by signing any of these players, and the first two are upgrades over Barry Church. The only other interesting name on here is Micah Hyde, 26, Green Bay, who is listed as a cornerback by PFF, with a 74.7 rating.
Dallas needs a free agent cornerback and safety, and may have to spend more than they want to both protect themselves, and give the team a chance to improve. With the money saved by moving on from Tony Romo, they likely have the cap flexibility to do it.
Part 1: What Is Dallas’s Team Building Philosophy?
Part 2: Where is Dallas Strong?
Part 3: Where is Dallas Just Okay?
Part 4: Where is Dallas Weakest?
Part 5: Freeing up Money For Free Agent Signings
Part 6: In-house Free Agents
Part 7: Outside Free Agents on Offense
Next - Part 8b: Outside Free Agents, Defensive Line
Continue reading...