News: BTB: After Black Monday: What Happened To Preseason "Hotseat" Coaches?

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A look back at which coaches the bookmakers had as favorites to get fired entering the 2015 season and how that turned out.

Seven NFL teams, or almost a quarter of all NFL teams, replaced their head coaches in 2014. The year before, the number was also seven, and after the 2012 season, eight coaches lost their job. This year, seven head coaches have been relieved of their duties so far, and more coaching changes could be in store.

But how do those moves compare to the preseason "hotseat" candidates?

In August last year, the Bookmaker Sportsbook ran the odds on which NFL head coach would be the first to be fired. That dubious distinction eventually went to Joe Philbin of the Dolphins, who was fired after four games. At the time the odds were published, Washington's Jay Gruden was listed as the most likely head coach to be fired first. Gruden of course took his Commanders to the NFC East division title and a playoff spot. Here's an overview of those preseason odds and what happened to each head coach since.

Rank Coach Team Odds Status
1​

Jay Gruden Washington

+250​

Getting ready for the playoffs

2​

Mike Pettine Cleveland

+550​

Fired. Because Cleveland

3​

Ken Whisenhunt Tennessee

+750​

Fired in part over concerns that Whisenhunt didn't do enough to protect his quarterbacks

4​

Jim Tomsula San Francisco

+1,200​

Fired, but 49ers will pay his entire $14 million contract

5​

Joe Philbin Miami

+1,500​

Fired four games into the season after signing a contract extension at the end of May, 2015

5​

Sean Payton New Orleans

+1,500​

After some discussion, will remain in New Orleans

7​

Gus Bradley Jacksonville

+1,800​

Safe despite 12-36 record over three years

8​

Chip Kelly Philadelphia

+2,000​

Failed in attempt to turn Madden Franchise mode into real life

8​

Lovie Smith Tampa Bay

+2,000​

Fired yesterday over concerns about defensive performance

10​

Jeff Fisher St. Louis

+2,500​

Incredibly, retains job after four consecutive non-winning seasons in St. Louis

10​

Jim Caldwell Detroit

+2,500​

No decision has been made on Caldwell’s future yet

12​

Marvin Lewis Cincinnati

+2,700​

Fourth consecutive season with 10+ wins

13​

Mike Zimmer Minnesota

+3,000​

Former Cowboys DC made playoffs

13​

Bill O'Brien Houston

+3,000​

Made playoffs in second NFL season

15​

Tom Coughlin New York Giants

+3,300​

Resigned after three straight losing seasons

16​

Jack Del Rio Oakland

+3,500​

Safe

16​

John Fox Chicago

+3,500​

Safe

16​

Andy Reid Kansas City

+3,500​

Playoffs

16​

Ron Rivera Carolina

+3,500​

Playoffs

20​

Todd Bowles New York Jets

+4,000​

Former Cowboys secondary coach barely misses playoffs but is safe

20​

Mike McCoy San Diego

+4,000​

McCoy stays, but OC Frank Reich and five assistant coaches fired

22​

Rex Ryan Buffalo

+4,500​

Safe, but hasn't had winning season in five years

22​

Dan Quinn Atlanta

+4,500​

Rookie HC safe despite finishing season 2-7 after 6-1 start.

24​

Jason Garrett Dallas

+5,000​

Safe for now, but probably needs to reach playoffs in 2016 to keep job

25​

Gary Kubiak Denver

+6,000​

Playoffs

26​

Mike Tomlin Pittsburgh

+7,500​

Playoffs

27​

Bruce Arians Arizona

+10,000​

Playoffs

27​

John Harbaugh Baltimore

+10,000​

Safe despite 5-11 finish

29​

Chuck Pagano Indianapolis

+15,000​

Surprisingly signs a four-year extension

29​

Mike McCarthy Green Bay

+15,000​

Playoffs

31​

Pete Carroll Seattle

+25,000​

Playoffs

31​

Bill Belichick New England

+25,000​

Playoffs​

The clear standout on this list is Jay Gruden, who defied a lot of expectations this season by leading the Commanders to the playoffs. But overall, the list looks like a good early indicator of what would happen during and after the season.

The NFC East coaches went into the season on shaky ground, and the odds eventually caught up with two of them. And after finishing 4-12 in 2015, Jason Garrett will very likely find himself much higher on this list this year than he did last year. Could the odds catch up with him too?

The Cowboys have gone on record and declared Garrett's job safe after a disappointing 4-12 season. But it's hard to imagine that the Cowboys would accept another such season, regardless of the circumstances.

I wrote above that Garrett probably needs to reach the playoffs next season to keep his job. But would a winning record also be enough? Or does it have to be a playoff win, or perhaps two? Perhaps he's safe regardless of what happens?

What do you think the Cowboys need to achieve for Garrett to retain his HC position in Dallas?

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