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A look at the offensive strengths and weaknesses of the Cowboys' Week 15 opponent.
Week 15 brings a red-hot Tampa Bay team to AT&T Stadium in the Cowboys’ only NFC South match-up of the year. Let’s take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of their offensive personnel.
Quarterback
The Buccaneers offense is led by the first-overall pick in the 2015 draft, Jameis Winston. Winston has improved on a largely impressive rookie season that saw him make the Pro Bowl and throw for 22 touchdowns to 15 interceptions, as well as over 4,000 yards. So far in 2016 he is on pace to beat those numbers with 23 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions, with 3,364 yards. Winston has also become much more accurate, improving his completion percentage by about three points, from 58.3% in 2015 to 61.7% so far in 2016. The Bucs put plenty on Winston’s plate as a rookie, asking him to throw the ball about 33 times per game in 2015, and that number has actually increased to over 35 in 2016.
Overall, Winston is a promising young quarterback who is capable of carrying his team at times but he struggles with consistency. The Seattle game a few weeks ago is a perfect example of this as he started out with touchdown passes on the first two drives, but then he struggled for the next three quarters, failing to score another point and throwing a red-zone interception late in the fourth quarter that was a horrible decision. Winston is clearly developing into a “franchise” caliber quarterback, but it is still just his second season and without the luxury of a consistent running game he is still prone to making the types of mistakes that young quarterbacks make, namely taking chances by forcing the ball into contested situations that he should avoid. With the weapons that Winston has in the passing game he will most certainly make plays against the Cowboys secondary, but he will also give them opportunities for turnovers, it’s just a matter of whether they will be able to capitalize on those opportunities or not.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Due to a mostly ineffective running game the Buccaneers offense revolves around their passing game, and more specifically, receiver Mike Evans and tight end Cameron Brate. After putting up over 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns over his first two seasons Evans has established himself in 2016 as one of the elite receivers in the league. He ranks in the top five of the league in receptions (80), yards (1,100) and touchdowns (10), and at 6-5, 231 lbs. Evans is a matchup nightmare with elite jump-ball ability, the speed to win deep, excellent hands and good enough route-running ability. He’s not quite as explosive as Julio Jones, but he isn’t far off with his combination of size and speed.
The other breakout player for the Bucs is Brate, a third-year UDFA out of Harvard who hadn’t done much prior to this season. Over his first two years he combined for 305 receiving yards and three touchdowns, but through 13 games in 2016 he has put up 575 yards on 51 catches, along with six touchdowns. At 6-5, 235 lbs. Brate doesn’t quite have the bulk to block and play as a traditional inline tight end, but he does have very good hands and a frame that allows him to box out defenders over the middle and in contested jump-ball situations. Winston will often throw the ball up for grabs to Evans and Brate, allowing them to make a play on the ball, and often times they will end up making Winston look good for making a questionable decision. Aside from Evans and Brate, no player on the Tampa roster has more than three touchdowns on the year so if anybody is going to hurt the Cowboys, it will likely be these two.
After that there isn’t really a whole lot to the Tampa Bay offense. The starter opposite of Evans is second-year UDFA Adam Humphries (5-11, 195), who is something of a poor man’s Cole Beasley as he uses short-area quickness and side-to-side agility to get open on horizontal routes in the short to medium areas of the field. On the year he has 467 yards on 42 catches, and like Beasley he is mostly a possession-type of receiver who isn’t a threat to beat you vertically. Russell Shepard, a former college quarterback, is sometimes used on gadget plays and screens, so the Cowboys will have to be aware of him when he’s on the field, but he isn’t much of a threat with only 232 yards on the year.
Running Back
The “starter” at running back is former second-round pick Doug Martin, who is quite the curious case. As a rookie in 2012 he put up over 1,400 rushing yards on 319 carries, averaging 4.6 YPC, along with 11 touchdowns. Over the next two years (2013 and 2014) he was plagued with injuries; averaging less than 3.8 YPC on only 261 combined carries over those two seasons. Then last season, a contract year, Martin again rushed for over 1,400 yards on 288 carries, averaging 4.9 YPC to go with six touchdowns, but now after the Bucs signed him to a long-term deal he is back to missing games and averaging a horrendous 3.0 YPC with only 379 rushing yards so far in 2016. Some may call that bad luck, others may call it only being motivated when it’s advantageous, but whatever it is, it’s quite interesting. In fact, backup Jacquizz Rodgers actually leads the team in rushing yards with 422, averaging a respectable 4.4 YPC, with most of that coming in just two games when Martin was out earlier in the year. Despite that, Rodgers hasn’t received many touches since Martin has returned.
Peyton Barber and Charles Sims will also receive a few carries here and there, especially Barber in short yardage situations, but they usually don’t get more than about five touches per game. None of the Tampa running backs are significant threats out of the backfield.
At the end of the day, despite a few recognizable names, this running game is largely ineffective. They average just 3.5 YPC as a team, which is fourth from the bottom in the league, and have only seven rushing touchdowns on the year. Despite that they will stick with the run in an attempt to stay balanced as they rank third in the league in attempts per game, so they generally won’t give up on the run even if it isn’t effective.
Offensive Line
The good news here for Tampa Bay is that they’ve generally had the same starting five for the entire year and haven’t been forced to mix and match players due to injuries, the bad news is that none of the starters are particularly good. From left to right the starters are 2015 second-round pick Donovan Smith at left tackle, 2014 fifth-round pick Kevin Pamphile, former Falcon Joe Hawley at center, another 2015 second-round pick at right guard, Ali Marpet, and long-time Buccaneer Demar Dotson at right tackle.
Aside from Hawley each of the starters are home-grown who have been playing together for at least two years, except for Pamphile who is in his first season as the full-time starter. They’re all relatively young as Dotson is the only one aged 30 or older, but overall it seems like a very odd, miscast group, to me at least. The left tackle, Smith, was generally regarded as a right tackle coming out of Penn St. two years ago due to his impressive size (6-6, 338) but limited athleticism, while the right guard, Marpet, was seen as a potential center due to his mobility but lack of size (6-4, but only 307).
Overall, this is a group that does a decent job in pass protection but struggles to open up holes in the running game due to a lack of size on the interior as Marpet and Hawley barely tip the scales at 300, making it difficult to run inside, while at tackle Smith and Dotson have limited mobility, making it difficult to secure the edge and run outside. The Cowboys should look to take advantage of the left side of the line in pass-protection as Smith and Pamphile aren’t the most athletically gifted players.
Dotson’s status for the game is up in the air due to a concussion suffered two games ago; if he is unable to go he will be replaced at right tackle by former first-round bust Gosder Cherilus.
Where The Cowboys Can Take Advantage:
- Overall a very similar offense to the Giants in that there is an over-reliance on the passing game, particularly on one stud receiver, while the running game is one of the worst in the league with no game-breaking talent at running back
- Quarterback that can be pressured into turnovers and mistakes, also similar to the Giants
- Average at best offensive line
What The Cowboys Must Fear:
- Big play ability of Evans
- Evans and Brate are one of the better red-zone duos in the league, combining for 16 touchdowns
- Brate and Humphries finding open space across the middle to extend drives
- Allowing Winston to get comfortable in the pocket
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