NewsBot
New Member
- Messages
- 111,281
- Reaction score
- 2,947
What does that tell us about the likely impact of this year’s rookie class?
We’ve been writing a series of articles using Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric.
Approximate Value (AV) method is an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year (since 1950).
It’s not a perfect stat, as its creator acknowledges.
"AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV."
Nonetheless, it’s a stat that can be used to compare players across different positions and over different years.
In this article, we’re going to use it to point out how tremendous the rookie seasons of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott were, and as a way to see whether Dallas can expect anything remotely comparable out of this year’s rookie class.
These are the top 50 rookie seasons, ranked by AV, in Dallas Cowboys’ history. By coincidence, it just happens that exactly 50 Cowboys rookies have scored 6 AV or better.
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Draft
G
GS
Yrs
PB
AP1
AV
1
1
Tony Dorsett*
1977
23
1--2
14
4
1
0
0
16
2
2
Ezekiel Elliott
2016
21
1--4
15
15
1
1
1
16
3
3
Dak Prescott
2016
23
4-135
16
16
1
1
0
16
4
4
Mel Renfro*
1964
23
2--17
14
14
1
1
0
15
5
5
Zack Martin
2014
24
1--16
16
16
1
1
1
14
6
6
Herschel Walker
1986
24
5-114
16
9
1
0
0
12
7
7
Bob Hayes*
1965
23
7--88
13
13
1
1
0
11
8
8
Calvin Hill
1969
22
1--24
13
13
1
1
1
11
9
9
Everson Walls
1981
22
16
12
1
1
0
10
10
10
Roy Williams
2002
22
1--8
16
16
1
0
0
10
11
11
Dexter Coakley
1997
25
3--65
16
16
1
0
0
9
12
12
Tyron Smith
2011
21
1--9
16
16
1
0
0
9
13
13
Duane Thomas
1970
23
1--23
14
8
1
0
0
9
14
14
Michael Downs
1981
22
15
15
1
0
0
8
15
15
Greg Ellis
1998
23
1--8
16
16
1
0
0
8
16
16
Travis Frederick
2013
22
1--31
16
16
1
0
0
8
17
17
Robert Jones
1992
23
1--24
15
13
1
0
0
8
18
18
Terence Newman
2003
25
1--5
16
16
1
0
0
8
19
19
Don Perkins
1961
23
9-106
14
14
1
1
0
8
20
20
Emmitt Smith*
1990
21
1--17
16
15
1
1
0
8
21
21
DeMarcus Ware
2005
23
1--11
16
16
1
0
0
8
22
22
Willie Blade
2003
24
3--93
15
14
1
0
0
7
23
23
Dez Bryant
2010
22
1--24
12
2
1
0
0
7
24
24
Larry Cole
1968
22
16-428
14
10
1
0
0
7
25
25
Maliek Collins
2016
21
3--67
16
14
1
0
0
7
26
26
Al Johnson
2004
25
2--38
16
15
1
0
0
7
27
27
DeMarco Murray
2011
23
3--71
13
7
1
0
0
7
28
28
Rob Petitti
2005
23
6-209
16
16
1
0
0
7
29
29
Darrin Smith
1993
23
2--54
16
13
1
0
0
7
30
30
Terrance Williams
2013
24
3--74
16
8
1
0
0
7
31
31
Flozell Adams
1998
23
2--38
16
12
1
0
0
6
32
32
George Andrie
1962
22
6--82
14
14
1
0
0
6
33
33
Larry Brown
1991
22
12-320
16
13
1
0
0
6
34
34
Morris Claiborne
2012
22
1--6
15
15
1
0
0
6
35
35
Billy Joe DuPree
1973
23
1--20
14
14
1
0
0
6
36
36
Ron Francis
1987
23
2--39
11
11
1
0
0
6
37
37
Kelvin Garmon
2001
25
7-243
16
16
1
0
0
6
38
38
Anthony Hitchens
2014
22
4-119
16
11
1
0
0
6
39
39
Julius Jones
2004
23
2--43
8
7
1
0
0
6
40
40
Burton Lawless
1975
22
2--44
14
10
1
0
0
6
41
41
Bob Lilly*
1961
22
1--13
14
14
1
0
0
6
42
42
Obert Logan
1965
24
14
9
1
0
0
6
43
43
John Meyers
1962
22
3--31
14
14
1
0
0
6
44
44
Ralph Neely
1965
22
2--28
14
14
1
0
0
6
45
45
Drew Pearson
1973
22
14
6
1
0
0
6
46
46
Guy Reese
1962
23
15--200
14
14
1
0
0
6
47
47
Derek Ross
2002
22
3--75
14
9
1
0
0
6
48
48
Mike Sherrard
1986
23
1--18
16
4
1
0
0
6
49
49
Marcus Spears
2005
22
1--20
16
10
1
0
0
6
50
50
Willie Townes
1966
23
2--22
13
8
1
0
0
6
(Rank, player, rookie year, age, draft position by round and total number, games played, games started, pro bowl, all-pro, AV).
As you can see, Dak and Zeke, along with Tony Dorsett, are the only Cowboys rookies in history to score 16 AV. Only 11 rookies in history have scored higher.
Of course, we could go into much greater depth about Dak’s and Zeke’s rookie seasons. Dak arguably had the best rookie season of any quarterback in history. And Zeke was third all-time in rushing yards for a rookie, and was within striking distance of breaking Eric Dickerson’s rookie mark had the Cowboys not rested him the last game and a half.
But the point of this article is to see where the new Cowboys rookies might end up.
Several other current Cowboys are on this top-50 list, including:
- Zack Martin - 14 AV (5th)
- Tyron Smith - 11 AV (12th)
- Travis Frederick - 8 AV (16th)
- Dez Bryant - 7 AV (23rd)
- Maliek Collins - 7 AV (25th)
- Anthony Hitchens - 6 AV (38th)
Meanwhile, players like La’el Collins, Anthony Brown, Dan Bailey, and Byron Jones scored 4 AV as rookies, which put them among the top-100 Cowboys of all time.
Will any of the Cowboys’ current rookies be able to crack this list? Let’s consider each one.
Taco Charlton
Charlton might have the best chance, as there is no clear right defensive end ahead of him. Demarcus Lawrence could be played at RDE, but his best year was on the left side when Greg Hardy played the RDE. Benson Mayowa led the Cowboys in sacks from the RDE position last year, but it was only six sacks, and he was benched for three games. Damontre Moore and Charles Tapper are also candidates to play RDE. Accordingly, Charlton is unlikely to get enough snaps to score 6 AV or higher this season. He’ll need to get stronger and improve on his technique before he can become a true force on the Dallas line.
Chidobe Awuzie
Awuzie is a great athlete, but he’s also unlikely to crack this top-50 group. Again, it comes down to snaps. Where’s his best position? In the slot, on the outside, or even at safety? In each position, he faces stiff competition from returning veterans, and even his fellow draftees Jourdan Lewis, Xavier Woods. and Marquez White.
Jourdan Lewis
Considered undersized at 5’10”, Lewis is projected by most to be a slot cornerback. But this is also the best position of veteran Orlando Scandrick, and possibly fellow rookie Chidobe Awuzie. My personal view is that Lewis should be considered for an outside CB position, as he may quickly become the best coverage CB on the Dallas roster. At Michigan, he allowed a ridiculously low percentage of completions against, something Dallas’ secondary has been struggling with for years. He’s also skillful at snagging interceptions. If he can beat out the competition and seize a starting role, Lewis may end up with the highest AV of any Cowboys rookie.
Ryan Switzer
Switzer is another fine pick for the Cowboys, but he’s also unlikely to approach 6 AV or more. The reason is the same as for the players above - playing time. He’s sitting behind Cole Beasley, one of the best slot wide receivers in the NFL last year. And the Cowboys are unlikely to run enough dual-slot formations to give Switzer the receptions he would need. Winning punt return duties would be a plus, but won’t give him enough AV points.
Xavier Woods
Woods is the last Cowboys draft pick who might get significant time as a rookie, as one of the safety positions is not yet locked down by Jeff Heath. This gives Woods an outside chance of making enough of an impact this season.
Seventh Rounders - Joey Ivie, Noah Brown, Jordan Carrell
These guys will be lucky just to make the 2017 Cowboys roster, let alone play enough to have high-AV seasons.
Here’s what the Cowboys lost to free agency among defensive backs and linemen this offseason.
Brandon Carr - 6 AV
Barry Church - 5 AV
Mo Claiborne - 3 AV
J.J. Wilcox - 2 AV
Terrell McClain - 7 AV
Jack Crawford - 6 AV
That’s three players with 6 or more AV, and another with 5 AV. It will be hard enough to match these numbers, let alone improve on them this year.
Even if the new rookies don’t crack the 6 AV threshold, it won’t mean the draft won’t be a success. Rookies often struggle. It’s how these players develop that will become the true test of the 2017 Cowboys draft class.
Continue reading...