News: BTB: Has The Cowboys Offense Become Unbalanced?

[NewsBot]

The Cowboys have a pass/run ratio of exactly 50% so far this year, which suggests a very balanced team. But a look at some playcalling details suggests the Cowboys may not be as balanced as that number would have you believe.

For years everybody and their uncle was screaming bloody murder at the lack of balance in the Cowboys' offensive playcalling, especially with the Cowboys increasingly relying on the pass in recent years. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Cowboys pass/run balance only knew one direction:

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pass Attempts
550 576 570 658 586
Runs
436 428 408 355 336
Pass/Run Ratio
56% 57% 58% 65% 64%​

By last year, the Cowboys' inability or unwillingness to run the ball resulted in a league-low 336 carries over 16 games, which prompted a cacophony of voices to scream louder than ever before for a more balanced offensive gameplan. Even the biggest morons could now provide a simple two-word solution for everything that was ailing the Cowboys, and their outraged cries of "Run More!" suddenly made them sound like the seasoned NFL experts they already were in their own minds.

So the Cowboys put their hand into the hat and presto! Out comes a running game! After 12 games, the Cowboys are about as balanced as it gets; their 364 pass attempts are almost perfectly balanced by their 365 runs for a 50% pass/run ratio. Buoyed by the Cowboys' 8-4 record (the loss against the Eagles notwithstanding) and a second-ranked rushing attack, many of the people previously calling for a more balanced offense are now giving themselves virtual pats on the back.

At a macro level, everything looks just hunky dory. After all, the whole idea behind a balanced offense is to be as unpredictable as possible - and with a 50% pass/run ratio, you're about as unpredictable as it gets.

So if the Cowboys are as balanced as they can be, why is the title of this post talking about the offense being unbalanced?

Because at a micro level, things don't look quite as hunky dory anymore. The Cowboys offense, when we look at the playcalling preferences on a down-and-distance basis, has become about as predictable as it can get.

The Cowboys offense, much more than in previous years, is geared towards creating favorable third down situations. When Rabblerousr and I talked about this a few weeks back, we jokingly referred to the Cowboys offense as a "Run, Run, Pass" offense, reflecting what we felt was a tendency to run on the first two downs and then pass on third down to get another first down. Obviously, that's a gross oversimplification, but let's see whether there's a kernel of truth in that via the following breakdown by down-and-distance situations for the Cowboys in 2014.

1st down


No team in the NFL runs the ball more often on first down than the Cowboys. The following graph illustrates the Cowboys' playcalling preferences on 1st-and-10:

The league average split on 1st-and-10 is 48% passing and 52 % running. Even pass-heavy teams like the Eagles (54% passing) or the Saints (53%) are much more balanced than the Cowboys.

The absence of balance is not a bad thing per se - if you can pull it off. The 90s Cowboys used to brag that opposing defenses knew exactly what play was coming, but were unable to stop it. And that's an important aspect to keep in mind as we review playcalling tendencies: Nobody was complaining about running the ball a lot on first down when the Cowboys were 6-1 earlier in the season. It's only when you can't pull it off anymore that your playcalling will come under scrutiny.

The Cardinals and Eagles loaded up to stop the run on first down, and when they were successful, the Cowboys didn't have an answer.

Opponent 1st-and-10 call Quarters 1-3 4th Quarter
Eagles Run
15 0
Pass
1 8
Cardinals Run
10 1
Pass
5 7​

You'd think that when the opposing defense is lining up to stop the run, the offense would play-action them to death. But that's not what the Cowboys did, instead sticking to the run on 1st-and-10, only rediscovering the pass in the fourth quarter when the offense was desperately trying to play catch up.

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