News: BTB: Is Cowboys Optimism Justified, Or Just Offseason Euphoria?

[NewsBot]

Almost all NFL fans get pumped up about this time of year. Dallas fans are no different. Is the hope based on reality, or just a mirage?

There is an odd paradox about the NFL (and perhaps all professional sports). Almost every team and its fan base thinks the team gets better through free agency and the draft. Better talent is brought in, needs are (usually) addressed, and new coaching regimes and schemes have poor fits replaced with players that, on paper at least, look to be much better. But as always, about half the teams get worse while the other half gets better.

The reason this is true is that most NFL teams actually get worse as the season progresses. Injuries take talent off the roster, players decline, often through age but also because of off-field issues, and for some teams friction can build between the players, the coaching staff, and ownership/management. So many teams will actually be improved during the offseason, but the same thing is happening for almost all the other franchises. Everyone gets better. What matters is how good the team was at the end of the season, and how much the team actually improved.

Blue Kool Aid optimism is flowing heavily for many fans of the Dallas Cowboys. But should we be tapping the brakes in light of all of the above? Is this positive view justified, or are we just falling prey to the same misconceptions? There are similar signs of optimism for teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who do have the top pick in the draft to fuel their hopes of at least climbing out of the cellar. The only notable case of a fan base that is very torn over what is going on is our good friends who follow the Philadelphia Eagles. While many are still bedazzled by the towering genius of Chip Kelly, there are many who find his offseason moves inexplicable and egotistical.

Let's attempt to take an objective look at the Cowboys (which is always difficult for a fan, but we strive to do our best here). First off, how good were the Cowboys after the season concluded? Obviously, they were one of the better teams in the league since they were playing well into January. They finally fell prey to some flaws on defense and one really bad call by the officials, but really were just a few plays away from moving on to the conference championship.

However, just as teams add new talent during the offseason, they also lose players. DeMarco Murray is the huge loss that everyone is talking about. Although the team could still make a move to acquire someone else, they seem content to go into training camp with the current group of Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, Ryan Williams, Lance Dunbar and Lache Seastrunk. Whether they will operate with a committee at running back, or one of the players will emerge as the bell cow, the bet seems to be that the talent loaded offensive line will continue to open holes. If that works out one way or another, then Dallas does not look to have lost much otherwise. Anthony Spencer, Bruce Carter, Jermey Parnell and Dwayne Harris all played important roles for the Cowboys, but either had their own issues or were simply offered far more money than the Dallas front office thought they were worth. None of the losses outside Murray were what could be called stars, but more role players. They were important, but by no means irreplaceable. Arguably, Murray is the only departure that made the team noticeably weaker.

Follow me @TomRyleBTB​

Continue reading...