BTB:Judging NFL QBs By The Company They Keep

[burmafrd]

a little more arsenic in the coffee of the Romo Haters.


http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013...y-they-keep-tony-romo-aaron-rodgers-matt-ryan

 

[Califan007]

His stats for Romo are slightly off...

He counts Romo's 1st game as a 100+ QBR game, but Romo didn't start that game. So that game shouldn't be counted when determining the win%--since he takes the number of 100+ QBR games and divides by number of starts, he should only include 100+ QBR games where the QB--wait for it--actually started.

He also counted Romo's game in 2010 where he got injured and was put on IR. Romo only threw 7 passes before getting injured. I think it's safe to say that it's much, MUCH harder to have a 100+ QBR after throwing 30 passes than it is after throwing 7 lol...he should have had a minimal limit to pass attempts in 100+ QBR games (say, 15 attempts) instead of just a minimum number of starts. My guess is that he probably made some similar types of mistakes with other QBs as well.

Plus, the list only includes currently active QBs...he should have gone back further so that Romo could be compared to more QBs (like Favre and Warner) and included any QB who started 32 games since 2000--and then included their entire career (so using Favre and Warner again, we would include their SB seasons in the late 90s in their totals).

Lastly, it would have been good to also have a separate list of QBs who have had 100+ QBR games in the playoffs. Unfortunately, the company Romo keeps on that list would include Aaron Brooks, David Garrard, Trent Dilfer, Elvis Grbac, Jake Plummer and Tim Tebow. (if you want to be literal, he'd actually be below some of those guys, based off of "100+ games in % of total games started in the playoffs")

 

[Idgit]

His stats for Romo are slightly off...

He counts Romo's 1st game as a 100+ QBR game, but Romo didn't start that game. So that game shouldn't be counted when determining the win%--since he takes the number of 100+ QBR games and divides by number of starts, he should only include 100+ QBR games where the QB--wait for it--actually started.

He also counted Romo's game in 2010 where he got injured and was put on IR. Romo only threw 7 passes before getting injured. I think it's safe to say that it's much, MUCH harder to have a 100+ QBR after throwing 30 passes than it is after throwing 7 lol...he should have had a minimal limit to pass attempts in 100+ QBR games (say, 15 attempts) instead of just a minimum number of starts. My guess is that he probably made some similar types of mistakes with other QBs as well.

Plus, the list only includes currently active QBs...he should have gone back further so that Romo could be compared to more QBs (like Favre and Warner) and included any QB who started 32 games since 2000--and then included their entire career (so using Favre and Warner again, we would include their SB seasons in the late 90s in their totals).

Lastly, it would have been good to also have a separate list of QBs who have had 100+ QBR games in the playoffs. Unfortunately, the company Romo keeps on that list would include Aaron Brooks, David Garrard, Trent Dilfer, Elvis Grbac, Jake Plummer and Tim Tebow. (if you want to be literal, he'd actually be below some of those guys, based off of "100+ games in % of total games started in the playoffs")

How does Tony Romo rank in playoff games completed with two working legs?

 

[Califan007]

How does Tony Romo rank in playoff games completed with two working legs?

Still at the bottom lol

 

[jterrell]

His stats for Romo are slightly off...

He counts Romo's 1st game as a 100+ QBR game, but Romo didn't start that game. So that game shouldn't be counted when determining the win%--since he takes the number of 100+ QBR games and divides by number of starts, he should only include 100+ QBR games where the QB--wait for it--actually started.

He also counted Romo's game in 2010 where he got injured and was put on IR. Romo only threw 7 passes before getting injured. I think it's safe to say that it's much, MUCH harder to have a 100+ QBR after throwing 30 passes than it is after throwing 7 lol...he should have had a minimal limit to pass attempts in 100+ QBR games (say, 15 attempts) instead of just a minimum number of starts. My guess is that he probably made some similar types of mistakes with other QBs as well.

Plus, the list only includes currently active QBs...he should have gone back further so that Romo could be compared to more QBs (like Favre and Warner) and included any QB who started 32 games since 2000--and then included their entire career (so using Favre and Warner again, we would include their SB seasons in the late 90s in their totals).

Lastly, it would have been good to also have a separate list of QBs who have had 100+ QBR games in the playoffs. Unfortunately, the company Romo keeps on that list would include Aaron Brooks, David Garrard, Trent Dilfer, Elvis Grbac, Jake Plummer and Tim Tebow. (if you want to be literal, he'd actually be below some of those guys, based off of "100+ games in % of total games started in the playoffs")

Going to disagree with a couple of the knocks here.

1. Active QBs makes absolute sense. Very hard to gauge across eras. Staubach had it much harder to build stats than Aikman much less Romo.
2. Playoff ratings are almost universally small sample sizes. You talk of low attempts being wiped out but think we should allow or base any takes on low game samples? That simply doesn't compute. I'd say completely fair to add playoff totals in but not to separate them out if you want any real data. Not unless you are talking multiple players with 10+ games.


I can agree with your point about whether or not he started and finished games. But that is a tough thing to decipher. And and long as he measures by the same model with each QB it is fair and unbiased.

 

[Califan007]

Going to disagree with a couple of the knocks here.

1. Active QBs makes absolute sense. Very hard to gauge across eras. Staubach had it much harder to build stats than Aikman much less Romo.

I think going back to 2000 would constitute this "era", though...

2. Playoff ratings are almost universally small sample sizes. You talk of low attempts being wiped out but think we should allow or base any takes on low game samples? That simply doesn't compute. I'd say completely fair to add playoff totals in but not to separate them out if you want any real data. Not unless you are talking multiple players with 10+ games.

Sure it computes, because small pass attempt samples isn't anywhere near the same as small playoff samples (unless we're talking about one playoff game). Heck, there are RBs who have 100+ QBR games on their resume, but they only threw 2-3 passes, tops. Kirk Cousins had a perfect game against the Ravens lol...hopefully that will never count towards these types of stats, though. Gotta have a minimum attempts established. The NFL has a minimum attempts established for "perfect QBR rating" games (20 attempts)...RG3 had a perfect QBR rating against the Eagles but the NFL wouldn't recognize it because he threw 15 attempts (completed 14). But, hey, count only QBs who have started "x" number of playoff games, that's fine too.

I can agree with your point about whether or not he started and finished games. But that is a tough thing to decipher. And and long as he measures by the same model with each QB it is fair and unbiased.

Well, I guess I'm thinking the writer probably just made a mistake rather than him measuring all the QBs by the same model.

 

[jterrell]

]I think going back to 2000 would constitute this "era", though...

If you took 2000 forward and didn't go backwards yes. If you are talking 1991 for Brett Favre then No.

Sure it computes, because small pass attempt samples isn't anywhere near the same as small playoff samples (unless we're talking about one playoff game). Heck, there are RBs who have 100+ QBR games on their resume, but they only threw 2-3 passes, tops. Kirk Cousins had a perfect game against the Ravens lol...hopefully that will never count towards these types of stats, though. Gotta have a minimum attempts established. The NFL has a minimum attempts established for "perfect QBR rating" games (20 attempts)...RG3 had a perfect QBR rating against the Eagles but the NFL wouldn't recognize it because he threw 15 attempts (completed 14). But, hey, count only QBs who have started "x" number of playoff games, that's fine too.

Not really. One of the examples you used was Trent Dilfer. Dilfer has 1 career 100+ QBR game as a playoff QB. In that game he attempted 13 passes. In his other games he has about 60 completions totals. Pretty clearly he wasn't a major factor for the Ravens. He bases his study on 32 games started. Can't really use a zero sum of 2 or 3 playoff games as baseline. That's simply too small. No one who studies data uses sample sizes that small. 10+ is fair. It'd be like saying Timmy Smith was the greatest playoff running back ever.

Well, I guess I'm thinking the writer probably just made a mistake rather than him measuring all the QBs by the same model.

He tells us he used the same method for data collection amongst all QBs. Since he claims it to be pro-football reference (my favorite NFL stat site) I think that is a fair guess to say he treated them all equally; faulty or not.

We can all question Romo in the playoffs.
But that wasn't the point of the statistical study.
And if we are gonna question Romo maybe we'd like to look at games where he was favored or had teams with more than 10 wins. Things other elite QBs seem to have yearly but have rarely happened for him.
Is he carrying this team or is he a problem?
Data says he's pretty good but there's enough data one can spin it the other way too.

 

[Califan007]

Since he claims it to be pro-football reference (my favorite NFL stat site) I think that is a fair guess to say he treated them all equally; faulty or not.

As is definitely mine as well lol...

Why I said it might just be a mistake is because he may not have looked over to see if Romo started every 100+ QBR game (or any of the QBs)...if you just count the number of games in which a QB gets a 100+ rating and then look for his number of starts, you'll end up missing some stuff.

We can all question Romo in the playoffs. But that wasn't the point of the statistical study. And if we are gonna question Romo maybe we'd like to look at games where he was favored or had teams with more than 10 wins. Things other elite QBs seem to have yearly but have rarely happened for him.

Is he carrying this team or is he a problem? Data says he's pretty good but there's enough data one can spin it the other way too.

I don't really have a problem with the study, other than the foundation of "Look who else is around Romo" as a selling point to fans. I'm pretty sure Cowboys fans are well aware of all the times in which Romo shined, but I don't think that's the point behind the criticism being leveled at him. I just pointed out how the stats collected were either slightly faulty or could be collected in a better manner.

 

[burmafrd]

As is definitely mine as well lol...

Why I said it might just be a mistake is because he may not have looked over to see if Romo started every 100+ QBR game (or any of the QBs)...if you just count the number of games in which a QB gets a 100+ rating and then look for his number of starts, you'll end up missing some stuff.




I don't really have a problem with the study, other than the foundation of "Look who else is around Romo" as a selling point to fans. I'm pretty sure Cowboys fans are well aware of all the times in which Romo shined, but I don't think that's the point behind the criticism being leveled at him. I just pointed out how the stats collected were either slightly faulty or could be collected in a better manner.

really frosts you that you could not nit pick more?

 

[WPBCowboysFan]

Judging NFL QBs By The Company They Keep

By One.Cool.Customer

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013...y-they-keep-tony-romo-aaron-rodgers-matt-ryan



The NFL passer rating as we know it today was initially presented by Don Smith in 1973, then working for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and has been used ever since. The passer rating combines four different efficiency measures into one number: completion percentage, average yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, and interception percentage.

The objective in creating the passer rating was to have a single number that would differentiate between outstanding, excellent, average and poor performance. Below are the values that - at the time - denoted those performances in the passer rating.

Completion PercentageYards per AttemptTouchdown PercentageInterception PercentagePasser Rating
Outstanding70%11.010%1.5%133.3
Excellent60%9.07.5%3.5%100.0
Average50%7.05%5.5%66.7
Poor30%3.00%9.5%0.0

The passer rating was implemented based on the league averages in the early 1970s, and over time, those averages have changed (e.g. nobody except Giants and Jets fans would call a 60% completion rate "excellent" anymore), as has their weight in the passer rating formula.

<snip>

 

[Slamman]

I think at this point that talking about Romo's stats is old hat. The only thing that will ever change Romo's perception is winning in the playoffs. Until then, his stats could be better than Rodgers, manning and Brady put together and it won't matter much.

 

[Idgit]

I think at this point that talking about Romo's stats is old hat. The only thing that will ever change Romo's perception is winning in the playoffs. Until then, his stats could be better than Rodgers, manning and Brady put together and it won't matter much.

You mean team performance in the playoffs is the only thing that affects the perception casual fans have of Tony Romo's personal performance? I'd probably have to agree with that. I'm not sure how much it matters in the long run. Personally, I'm happy if he just keeps playing very good football.