BTB: O-Line Prospects Too Low?

[MichaelWinicki]

O-Line Prospects Too Low?

by One.Cool.Customer on Nov 11, 2010 8:03 AM CST

A lot of discussion about the Cowboys in the recent weeks, months and even years has centered around the O-Line and the seeming inability of the Cowboys to draft offensive linemen. BTB's own rabblerousr analyzed the issue in a lot of detail two months ago and eloquently argued that the Cowboys scouts apparently don't have the ability to recognize what makes an NFL-caliber offensive lineman, as evidenced by the Cowboys' long list of questionable draft decisions. The relegation of 2009 third round pick Robert Brewster to the practice squad recently just adds another name to round out the chamber of drafting horrors that have been the Cowboys offensive linemen.

And then there's the one that got away: On draft day 2009, the Cowboys thought they had scored a bargain when Oregon center Max Unger slipped down the draft board. They were ready to pick him in spot 51, but the Seahawks cut a deal with Bears and swiped him with the 49th pick.

More recently, BTB-member Chandus argued that "I believe that they’re mis-calculating the draft prospects ratings, if a lot of teams think that the same prospect that you’re rating in the 4th Round is actually a 3rd Rounder, you’re the one with the problem." Now that is a statement that we can put to the test. How? After the break we look at the Cowboys 2010 draft board and see if and how badly the Cowboys missed on their grades.

For more... http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010...ly-grading-o-line-prospects-too-low#storyjump

 

[TheCount]

This is a terrific article.

 

[Eskimo]

It might be more relevant if they showed where they had the player ranked overall compared to where they were drafted. The reason is that they may have only had 20 first round grades even though there are 32 picks. If this is not accounted for then naturally you may have players ranked a round lower than they went even though they went off the board in line with where you thought they would be picked overall.

 

[dbair1967]

This is a terrific article.

Honestly its a stupid article, and the evidence they use doesnt support the argument they are making.

For the argument they are making to have any legitimacy, they'd have to find out how all 32 teams rated those prospects, and come up with an average, then compare to the Cowoys ratings.

Just because 1 team chose to draft a guy in a certain round, doesnt mean all 31 other teams had the guy rated the same, or that anyone had that guy rated the same.

 

[ThreeandOut]

Honestly its a stupid article, and the evidence they use doesnt support the argument they are making.

For the argument they are making to have any legitimacy, they'd have to find out how all 32 teams rated those prospects, and come up with an average, then compare to the Cowoys ratings.

Just because 1 team chose to draft a guy in a certain round, doesnt mean all 31 other teams had the guy rated the same, or that anyone had that guy rated the same.

Gosselin's top 100 is a fairly decent gauge of consensus value among NFL teams (at least for the first 3-4 rounds). If I'm recalling correctly, you could see the same trend noted in this article. Several lineman rated to go in the second round by Gosselin were rated as 3rd to 4th round prospects by Dallas. But I don't believe Gosselin's list was as high on OL's as how they were actually drafted. I don't remember his list having many OL's in the last 20-30 slots.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Honestly its a stupid article, and the evidence they use doesnt support the argument they are making.

For the argument they are making to have any legitimacy, they'd have to find out how all 32 teams rated those prospects, and come up with an average, then compare to the Cowoys ratings.

Just because 1 team chose to draft a guy in a certain round, doesnt mean all 31 other teams had the guy rated the same, or that anyone had that guy rated the same.

Actually, I think it's a pretty interesting argument. You're right about the evidence but the broader point he makes toward the end of the argument is that whether or not the Cowboys are juding the picks correctly, it's a seller's market for offensive linemen. So the Cowboys may, for all any of us know, be getting the quality right but if the rest of the league is willing to overpay for offensive linemen due to shortage of them, then the Cowboys have indeed misjudged.

It may not be right -- going by one draft board for one team is pretty thin evidence but it's still pretty intriguing. It runs entirely counter to current drafting theory -- more or less BPA -- to argue that supply and demand needs to be factored into draft grades. But maybe it should?

On edit: I'm sure that supply and demand does indeed factor in, thus lower grades for kickers and fullbacks. So I guess the argument is that the Cowboys are under-valuing offensive linemen in general...?

 

[Primetime42]

In economic terms, what we have here is a seller's market: In a seller's market there are more buyers than sellers, and high prices result from this excess of demand over supply. Translated to the NFL, this means that there are not enough linemen to meet the demand of NFL teams. As a result you likely have to overpay in terms of draft picks to get one

Really the only thing worth noting here.

 

[Plankton]

I don't believe, per say, that they have a problem rating the guys relative to where they went. For example, they may have dinged Anthony Davis and moved him to a third round grade because of his lack of work ethic and character questions, and this is a statement by them saying that he would be a worthwhile pick for the Cowboys only if it were in the third round.

Where I believe they have a problem is in their prototype for the position. Being that they consistently miss on linemen, the criteria that they are grading these guys on seems to be off. They may want to talk to someone in the Ravens organization to pick their brains on OL prototypes for scouting, because the Ravens do an excellent job scouting those positions.

 

[AdamJT13]

BTB still taking credit for "decoding" the Cowboys' draft board. Unbelievable.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I don't believe, per say, that they have a problem rating the guys relative to where they went. For example, they may have dinged Anthony Davis and moved him to a third round grade because of his lack of work ethic and character questions, and this is a statement by them saying that he would be a worthwhile pick for the Cowboys only if it were in the third round.

Where I believe they have a problem is in their prototype for the position. Being that they consistently miss on linemen, the criteria that they are grading these guys on seems to be off. They may want to talk to someone in the Ravens organization to pick their brains on OL prototypes for scouting, because the Ravens do an excellent job scouting those positions.

Looks to me like the OL coach's prototype doesn't fit the scheme the OC wants to run.

Which is so weird since the OC in all probability had a hand in getting the OL coach hired.

 

[TheCount]

Actually, I think it's a pretty interesting argument. You're right about the evidence but the broader point he makes toward the end of the argument is that whether or not the Cowboys are juding the picks correctly, it's a seller's market for offensive linemen. So the Cowboys may, for all any of us know, be getting the quality right but if the rest of the league is willing to overpay for offensive linemen due to shortage of them, then the Cowboys have indeed misjudged.

It may not be right -- going by one draft board for one team is pretty thin evidence but it's still pretty intriguing. It runs entirely counter to current drafting theory -- more or less BPA -- to argue that supply and demand needs to be factored into draft grades. But maybe it should?

On edit: I'm sure that supply and demand does indeed factor in, thus lower grades for kickers and fullbacks. So I guess the argument is that the Cowboys are under-valuing offensive linemen in general...?

Don't mind DBlair, he just enjoys going from thread to thread looking to crap on anyones opinion he disagrees with.

 

[Plankton]

Looks to me like the OL coach's prototype doesn't fit the scheme the OC wants to run.

Which is so weird since the OC in all probability had a hand in getting the OL coach hired.

The OL coach has proven to be a pretty poor judge of talent over the years.

Shane Hannah was one of the gems that he pushed for.

 

[Jimz31]

The bottom line is that our problem IS the o-line....

I can only hope that we draft only o-linemen and DB's.

We have the talent at the "star" positions....we need the talent where it allows the "stars" to shine.

 

[AbeBeta]

And then there's the one that got away: On draft day 2009, the Cowboys thought they had scored a bargain when Oregon center Max Unger slipped down the draft board. They were ready to pick him in spot 51, but the Seahawks cut a deal with Bears and swiped him with the 49th pick.

this one still bugs me. it is all about Jerry chasing after trying to look like a genius. you set up with so many picks, you can't just sit there.

"special teams draft" the team cried. That reminded me so much of the "back up draft" of 1995.

 

[BlueStar3398]

ESPN said to keep an eye on TCU's RT Marcus Cannon.

Hopefully, the Cowboys can pick up some good ones in the draft!

 

[CCBoy]

ESPN said to keep an eye on TCU's RT Marcus Cannon.

Hopefully, the Cowboys can pick up some good ones in the draft!

And when a high rounder is taken, make sure he has cleared all medical problems before the Combine.

 

[TheCount]

And when a high rounder is taken, make sure he has cleared all medical problems before the Combine.

And hopefully they don't get cute with the pick and outsmart themselves yet again.

 

[Stash]

Some good stuff in that piece.

And I think that whether we agree with it entirely or not, it does bring to light an issue this organization has which has gotten us to where we are.

Clearly this team needs to put better resources toward building a quality offensive line.

A franchise I feel does well in that area is the Giants. They're continually focused on improving both lines, building in the trenches. And I think it's working well for them.

 

[percyhoward]

Looks to me like the OL coach's prototype doesn't fit the scheme the OC wants to run.

That's what I see too. Rather than all the scouts/coaches being sure that most of the prospects weren't so good, it looks more like a failure to reach agreement on any but the very best players, and the result of this collective uncertainty is lower grades for everybody.

When the only players we rank as highly as the rest of the league does are the top prospects, this points to a difference in philosophies of the decision makers.

 

[YosemiteSam]

BTB still taking credit for "decoding" the Cowboys' draft board. Unbelievable.

Anyone can decode the Cowboys draft board when it comes to drafting offensive lineman. One word will do it. FAIL.