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The remaining schedule could easily play a key role in determining which teams make it to the playoffs and which don't.
Traditional strength of schedule calculations add up the record of a team’s 16 opponents to get a cumulative win percentage for all 16 opponents. That exercise can also be done mid-season to get a feel for the remaining strength of schedule (SOS) each team faces.
For example, the Colts' nine remaining opponents (counting division opponents twice) have a 31-21 W/L record so far this season, so the Colts have an SOS of .596, the highest of any team in the NFL.
Another way to look at remaining SOS is to use the Vegas Super Bowl odds as a proxy for team strength. Odds aren't an exact science of course, but looking at odds has an advantage of looking at W/L records: Odds are an attempt at predicting future performance, while W/L records are simply a snapshot of past performance.
To calculate the odds-based remaining SOS, I used the latest, post-Week 7 Super Bowl odds from bookmaker.eu, and assigned each team points based on their Super Bowl odds.
The Patriots (+270) are currently favored to win Super Bowl LI, so they received one point. The Seahawks (+700), Vikings (+850), Packers (+1000), and Cowboys (+1300), were assigned two, three, four, and five points respectively. The 49ers (+500000) and Browns (+1000000) have the worst odds, and were assigned 31 and 32 points.
I then calculated the average points for each team's remaining schedule, with a lower number meaning a tougher schedule.
Using the odds-based method, the Eagles have the toughest remaining SOS. Their 10 remaining opponents (including Cowboys twice, Packers, and Seahawks), show an average odds-based ranking of 9.8.
Here is what the remaining SOS based on Super Bowl odds looks like for all 32 teams entering Week 8. For your convenience, the table is sortable (just click on the blue column headers).
Remaining 2016 Strength Of Schedule By Team
Team
Odds-based SOS
Opp Win %
Philadelphia Eagles
9.8 0.593Washington Commanders
10.7 0.520Baltimore Ravens
11.1 0.537Indianapolis Colts
11.8 0.596Carolina Panthers
12.5 0.561Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12.9 0.536Green Bay Packers
13.0 0.542Buffalo Bills
13.2 0.519Detroit Lions
13.4 0.549Cleveland Brown
13.7 0.509Denver Broncos
13.9 0.569San Francisco 49ers
13.9 0.444Oakland Raiders
14.2 0.510Arizona Cardinals
14.4 0.471New York Giants
14.4 0.472Jacksonville Jaguars
14.5 0.590Kansas City Chiefs
14.8 0.525Dallas Cowboys
14.9 0.517Atlanta Falcons
15.1 0.460Minnesota Vikings
15.2 0.508Cincinnati Bengals
15.2 0.491Houston Texans
15.2 0.500Tennessee Titans
15.3 0.462Chicago Bears
15.4 0.528Los Angeles Rams
15.4 0.442Pittsburgh Steelers
16.0 0.455New Orleans Saints
16.5 0.474Seattle Seahawks
17.0 0.526New York Jets
17.8 0.446San Diego Chargers
18.0 0.453New England Patriots
18.7 0.444Miami Dolphins
20.2 0.382For the Cowboys, both calculations place them somewhere around average. They have the 15th toughest schedule by opponent win percentage and the 18th toughest schedule by opponent Super Bowl odds.
The calculations also don't do much for the Eagles either way, they have the 2nd toughest remaining SOS by opponent win percentage and the toughest remaining SOS by opponent Super Bowl odds.
But the Commanders and Giants make big jumps. The Commanders jump from 13th (Opp Win %) to 2nd overall (Odds-based SOS), while the Giants jump from 22nd to 15th, an indication that their remaining opponents could be a lot tougher than those opponents' records currently indicate.
For reference, here are the latest Super Bolw odds per bookmaker.eu:
Super Bowl Odds per Week 8
Team Odds Team Odds Team OddsNew England Patriots
+270
Oakland Raiders +2800
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +19000
Seattle Seahawks +700
New York Giants +5000
New Orleans Saints +22000
Minnesota Vikings +850
Cincinnati Bengals +5500
Miami Dolphins +24000
Green Bay Packers +1000
San Diego Chargers +6500
Tennessee Titans +25000
Dallas Cowboys +1300
Houston Texans +6700
Jacksonville Jaguars +28000
Pittsburgh Steelers +1350
Indianapolis Colts +7000
Los Angeles Rams +30000
Atlanta Falcons +1500
Washington Commanders +7500
New York Jets +32000
Denver Broncos +1700
Buffalo Bills +8000
Chicago Bears +200000
Arizona Cardinals +2200
Carolina Panthers +8250
San Francisco 49ers +500000
Kansas City Chiefs +2400
Detroit Lions +14000
Cleveland Brown +1000000
Philadelphia Eagles +2500
Baltimore Ravens +15000
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