News: BTB: The Cowboys Must Draft A QB If He Is The Best Player Available ... Right?

[NewsBot]

We take a detailed look at the 2010 and 2013 drafts to figure out how serious the Cowboys are about drafting the Best Player Available.

Every time somebody categorically proclaims that the Cowboys "must" do something or other, I reflexively think, "No, they don't!"

One of the most recent statements that's been driving me to the purple drank faster than you can say JaMarcus Russell, contends that "the Cowboys must draft a QB if he is the best player available on their board". To which I of course reply, "They 'must' do no such thing." And while I understand that this is the battle-cry of all parties interested in seeing Johnny Manziel in Dallas for whatever reason, this is also a logical application of the Best Player Available (BPA) approach to drafting.

BPA is a fairly deterministic drafting process which holds that the highest-rated prospect remaining on your draft board must automatically be your pick in the draft. But if drafting was that simple, a $25 Raspberry PI computer could conduct the entire NFL draft in seconds, if it simply had been fed each team's draft board beforehand. But that's not how the draft works.

Pure BPA is myth, if for no other reason than there is hardly ever a clear-cut best player available. If the best player were so clearly identifiable, the Cowboys would land a hit with every single draft pick and the 2009 draft would not have happened. But that's not the case.

What happens when teams are on the clock is that they often have to make a choice between a handful of players with very similar or even identical grades. And all sorts of considerations go into that decision: depth at the player's position, salary cap ramifications, injury or age issues at the position, competitive considerations, player personnel strategies, personal likes and dislikes, and - yes, we're going there - plain old team needs.

Consider a few tidbits from recent Cowboys history:

In 2004, Tony Romo had a fifth-round grade on the Cowboys' board. The Cowboys didn't have a pick in the sixth round that year, but three picks in the seventh. We don't know what grades Nate Jones, Patrick Crayton, and Jacques Revees had that year, but they were picked in the seventh round that year instead of Romo. Perhaps the Cowboys felt they were deep enough at the position and didn't need a QB; perhaps they thought the kid from Wisconsin would be available as a free agent. Regardless, they got lucky with that one.

In 2009, the Cowboys held the 51st pick and decided to trade down when their target, Max Unger, went 49th. LeSean McCoy, who had a first-round grade on the Cowboys board, would have still been available, but the Cowboys probably felt good with their running back situation (Marion Barber & Felix Jones) at the time, so they didn't feel the need to pick another RB in McCoy. They did not get lucky here.

In 2012, Ronald Leary was on the board with a third-round grade, but the Cowboys speculated that Leary would go undrafted because of concerns over his degenerative knee condition. They got lucky and were proven right.

In 2013, the Cowboys picked DeVonte Holloman (fifth-round grade) over Brandon Magee (fourth-round grade). Why?

They made the call to pick Holloman and chance that Magee would make it to free agency because of Magee’s smaller size and injury history. They also felt Holloman was a better special teams player.
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These are just four examples that show that there may be considerations playing a role in a team's picks other than just BPA. Of course, proponents of BPA will argue that the failure to pick McCoy is a prime example of why teams must go BPA, and that the Cowboys simply got lucky in the other examples. Fair enough, so let's take this one step further.

Thanks to the leaked draft boards of the 2010 and 2013 drafts, we can take a detailed look at those two drafts and look at the five BPA players on the Cowboys draft boards each time the Cowboys were on the clock. That will give us some insight into how stringently the Cowboys follow BPA, and whether there may be positions where BPA goes out the window.

We'll start with the 2013 draft, and walk through each pick looking at the five best remaining players at the time according to the Cowboys draft board.

First Round - Pick 16​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Sharrif Floyd

1 23​

MIN DT

1 5​

Xavier Rhodes

1 25​

MIN DB

1 11​

Cordarrelle Patterson

1 29​

MIN WR

1 13​

Tyler Eifert

1 21​

CIN TE

1 15​

Bjoern Werner

1 24​

IND DE

1 17​

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The Cowboys decided to trade out of the 16th spot last year. These are the top-rated players remaining on the Cowboys' draft board at the time.

First Round - Pick 31​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Travis Frederick

1 31​

DAL OL

2 22​

Terrance Williams

3 74​

DAL WR

2 23​

Gavin Escobar

2 47​

DAL TE

2 25​

Darius Slay

2 36​

DET DB

2 26​

Zach Ertz

2 35​

PHI TE

2 27​

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Whodathunkit? Not only was Travis Frederick the Cowboys' BPA at this spot, but Terrance Williams and Gavin Escobar already show up at the top here.

Second Round - Pick 47​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Terrance Williams

3 74​

DAL WR

2 23​

Gavin Escobar

2 47​

DAL TE

2 25​

Ryan Nassib

4 110​

NYG QB

2 28​

Margus Hunt

2 53​

CIN DE

2 29​

Matt Barkley

4 98​

PHI QB

2 31​

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Technically, the Cowboys should have picked Terrance Williams here. In practice though, Williams and Escobar may have had the same grade, or one so close that there was no real distinction between the two. The Cowboys later explained that they felt there was a bigger chance that Williams would fall farther than Escobar, which led them to pick Escobar over Williams at this spot.

Third Round - Pick 74​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Terrance Williams

3 74​

DAL WR

2 23​

Ryan Nassib

4 110​

NYG QB

2 28​

Matt Barkley

4 98​

PHI QB

2 31​

Markus Wheaton

3 79​

PIT WR

3 44​

B.W. Webb

4 114​

DAL DB

3 47​

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The Cowboys were quite lucky to have Williams fall this far.

Third Round - Pick 80​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Ryan Nassib

4 110​

NYG QB

2 28​

Matt Barkley

4 98​

PHI QB

2 31​

B.W. Webb

4 114​

DAL DB

3 47​

JJ Wilcox

3 80​

DAL FS

3 50​

Stedman Bailey

3 92​

STL WR

3 52​

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Well, well, well, what do we have here? Two QBs would have been BPA at this spot. The Cowboys had the choice between Nassib and Barkley - and chose neither. Both QBs had a second-round grade on the Cowboys' board, but the Cowboys opted for a former running back who had converted to safety just two years prior.

The Cowboys liked both QBs enough to give them second-round grades, but either felt that there was no need to draft a third QB or felt they had a bigger need in the secondary.

Fourth Round - Pick 114​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
B.W. Webb

4 114​

DAL DB

3 47​

Gerald Hodges

4 120​

MIN LB

3 56​

Everett Dawkins

7 229​

MIN DT

3 62​

D.C. Jefferson

7 219​

ARI TE

3 63​

Joseph Randle

5 151​

DAL RB

3 67​

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The Cowboys find back to their BPA ways after the Giants and Eagles showed mercy on the fast falling Nassib and Barkley.

Sixth Round - Pick 151​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Everett Dawkins

7 229​

MIN DT

3 62​

D.C. Jefferson

7 219​

ARI TE

3 63​

Joseph Randle

5 151​

DAL RB

3 67​

Brandon Magee

- - - -​

UDFA LB

4 69​

Brandon Jenkins

5 162​

WAS DE

4 81​

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It may look like the Cowboys went a little off-BPA here, but the differences in grades between players ranked 62, 63 and 67 is probably indistinguishable. In the seventh round, with no more picks left, the Cowboys tried to get a trade done for what was widely presumed to be D.C. Jefferson, but to no avail. They would also pick up Everett Dawkins later in the season off the Vikings practice squad, but would cut him a few weeks later.

Fifth Round - Pick 185​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Everett Dawkins

7 229​

MIN DT

3 62​

D.C. Jefferson

7 219​

ARI TE

3 63​

Brandon Magee

- - - -​

UDFA LB

4 69​

Andre Ellington

6 187​

ARI RB

4 82​

Michael Buchanan

7 226​

NWE DE

4 88​

Keelan Johnson

- - - -​

UDFA S

5 92​

DeVonte Holloman

6 185​

DAL LB

5 95​

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Given how we've seen the Cowboys adhere to BPA pretty closely in this draft, it comes as a little surprise to see Holloman picked over six players with higher grades, some of them a lot higher. Were the Cowboys focused in on a linebacker, or did other considerations play a role here?

On to 2010, a draft where the Cowboys traded up twice, once for Dez Bryant, once for Sean Lee. You'd assume that if you trade up, you'd take the best guy on you board, but did the Cowboys do that? Have a look:

First Round - Pick 24​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Dez Bryant

1 24​

DAL WR

1 12​

Sean Lee

2 55​

DAL LB

1 14​

Jared Odrick

1 28​

MIA DE

1 15​

Kyle Wilson

1 29​

NYJ DB

1 18​

NaVorro Bowman

3 91​

SFO LB

1 20​

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The Cowboys got their top guy in Bryant, but look who's already lurking in the second spot on that draft board.

Second Round - Pick 55​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Sean Lee

2 55​

DAL LB

1 14​

NaVorro Bowman

3 91​

SFO LB

1 20​

Morgan Burnett

3 71​

GNB DB

2 30​

Brandon Ghee

3 96​

CIN DB

2 38​

Corey Wootton

4 109​

CHI DE

3 42​

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The Cowboys get their guy in Sean Lee, but the table highlights one of the perils of trading up: Sitting in second place on the Cowboys board at this point was LB NaVorro Bowman. Had the Cowboys kept their original 90th pick, they would very likely have picked Bowman in the third round. Imagine a defensive backfield being patrolled by Lee and Bowman! Then again, imagine an offense without Dez Bryant; man this hindsight stuff sucks.

Fourth Round - Pick 126​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah

4 126​

DAL DB

4 69​

John Conner

5 139​

NYJ RB

4 73​

Carlton Mitchell

6 177​

CLE WR

4 77​

Dominique Franks

5 135​

ATL DB

4 82​

Larry Asante

5 160​

CLE DB

4 83​

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You may not like to read this, but the Cowboys did everything right with the AOA pick, at least from a draft point of view. Their scouting of the player is a different matter entirely, but for what it's worth, AOA was the BPA.

Sixth Round - Pick 126​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Tony Pike

6 204​

CAR QB

4 90​

Danny Batten

6 192​

BUF DE

5 99​

Sam Young

6 179​

DAL T

5 100​

Clifton Geathers

6 186​

CLE DE

5 103​

Eugene Sims

6 189​

STL DE

5 108​

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There they go again! The Cowboys skip on another BPA because he's a quarterback. At the time, the Cowboys had Romo, Kitna and McGee on the roster and may not have felt a big need for another QB. In the end, Tony Pike lasted just one season in the NFL, but should that season have been with the Cowboys?

Seventh Round - Pick 126​

Player Draft Round Draft Pick Drafted by Pos DAL Grade DAL Rank
Tony Pike

6 204​

CAR QB

4 90​

Alric Arnett

- - - -​

UDFA WR

5 107​

Jamar Wall

6 196​

DAL DB

5 111​

Chris McCoy

7 212​

MIA DE

6 116​

Willie Young

7 213​

DET DE

6 119​

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Here the Cowboys blew their second chance at drafting a QB. The final pick (234) of the 2010 draft would be Sean Lissemore, who was not on the Cowboys' draft board at all. Lissemore was taken over two players with draftable grades, Alric Arnett (5th round grade) and Brandon Minor (6th round grade). Both ended up as UDFAs, but are still in the league today.

When I first looked up all this data, I was quite surprised to see how closely the Cowboys followed a BPA approach in both drafts, despite my protestations at the top of this article. But their treatment of QBs sticks out like a sore thumb. In both drafts we looked at, they skipped on QBs who were clearly the best players available. And this despite the Cowboys insistence that they remain interested in a developmental quarterback.

At the end of the day, on the question of whether "the Cowboys must draft a QB if he is the best player available on their board," the answer is simple.

"Yeah, right."

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