BTB - Trend Almost Always Points Up The Following Season

[jday]

Interesting read from BTB:

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2014...defenses-trend-points-up-the-following-season

As much as I would love to get my hopes up given the odds related in the above linked contribution, I am a firm beleiver that things can always be worse...just when you say it can't, something happens to prove you wrong.

 

[Idgit]

Makes sense. Teams with such low rankings are obviously going to devote significant resources towards getting better. Or they're getting players back from injury. In our case, I'd guess we probably devoted fewer resources than the average given our cap constraints and the fact that we spent our #1 on offense again.

 

[Bullflop]

From the looks of things, it's probably fair to say that Dallas' chances for another incredibly disastrous year in terms of so many excessive injuries are highly unlikely. That, coupled with the additional players like Melton, Lawrence, the two McClains and Mincey, along with all the return of many promising youngsters from last year's injury list, should easily comprise reasonable cause for hope and even a bit of unbridled optimism.

We had a record-breaking number of injuries that fittingly should (and did) lead up to some record-breaking incompetence. Let's see what the upcoming season might provide with a reasonable measure of health to offset an outrageously unfortunate 2013. The Law of Averages would definitely tend to suggest a high probability of better things to come for the Cowboys in 2014.

 

[jday]

From the looks of things, it's probably fair to say that Dallas' chances for another incredibly disastrous year in terms of so many excessive injuries are highly unlikely. That, coupled with the additional players like Melton, Lawrence, the two McClains and Mincey, along with all the return of many promising youngsters from last year's injury list, should easily comprise reasonable cause for hope and even a bit of unbridled optimism.

We had a record-breaking number of injuries that fittingly should (and did) lead up to some record-breaking incompetence. Let's see what the upcoming season might provide with a reasonable measure of health to offset an outrageously unfortunate 2013. The Law of Averages would definitely tend to suggest a high probability of better things to come for the Cowboys in 2014.

Very well worded sir! I have hopes; I wouldn't exactly describe them as "high," though! I've always preferred the term cautiously optimistic. And that is in the sense tha we will see some semblance of improvement, not that this team is a contender. I think it's going to take a year for some of these youngsters to develop. I could be wrong; I hope I am.

 

[CyberB0b]

From the looks of things, it's probably fair to say that Dallas' chances for another incredibly disastrous year in terms of so many excessive injuries are highly unlikely. That, coupled with the additional players like Melton, Lawrence, the two McClains and Mincey, along with all the return of many promising youngsters from last year's injury list, should easily comprise reasonable cause for hope and even a bit of unbridled optimism.

We had a record-breaking number of injuries that fittingly should (and did) lead up to some record-breaking incompetence. Let's see what the upcoming season might provide with a reasonable measure of health to offset an outrageously unfortunate 2013. The Law of Averages would definitely tend to suggest a high probability of better things to come for the Cowboys in 2014.

What injury records were broken? Just curious, because we weren't even the most injured team last year.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

There is no trend.

There is no try.

Only do!



Nike - just do it!

 

[Bullflop]

What injury records were broken? Just curious, because we weren't even the most injured team last year.

If my old man's memory serves me correctly, I'm under the impression it was reported that the number of injuries we suffered in 2013 was a team record for the Cowboys. If that was incorrect, then I humbly apologize.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

If my old man's memory serves me correctly, I'm under the impression it was reported that the number of injuries we suffered in 2013 was a team record for the Cowboys. If that was incorrect, then I humbly apologize.

I don't know if it was a team wide injury record...however I imagine it had to be a record for injuries and different starters on the Defensive side of the ball...esp on the Dline.

Concerns to the idea of it can't get worse line of thinking...I think it was said after the less than stellar defense under Rob Ryan that got him canned and we brought in another Defensive Coordinator. So...yeah...it can get worse even after saying it can't.

 

[Bullflop]

I don't know if it was a team wide injury record...however I imagine it had to be a record for injuries and different starters on the Defensive side of the ball...esp on the Dline.

Concerns to the idea of it can't get worse line of thinking...I think it was said after the less than stellar defense under Rob Ryan that got him canned and we brought in another Defensive Coordinator. So...yeah...it can get worse even after saying it can't.

Yessir, I don't doubt it's possible for it to get worse . . . I made my assumption based upon the law of averages which would seem to suggest we're due for something not quite so disastrous. No doubt, injuries are bound to happen. Just hoping for less is all.

 

[Hoofbite]

I don't necessarily disagree with the idea that teams improve (minus DET who was on the list as the 32nd ranked defense for 3 consecutive years) but I don't think that says much. Maybe a couple of teams did better or worse. Detroit improved and was still last. You can't honestly expect a strong correlation when there's an equally weighted variable in play that you haven't accounted for, not to mention yards don't go on the scoreboard.

Not saying I disagree with the idea, but the article is awful.

Of course, when you have one of the worst defenses in the league, odds are that that the rest of your team isn't in stellar condition either.

What odds? I can readily identify 4 juggernaut offenses from those particular teams in the comparison years. NO, GB, NE (not in chart but mentioned), KC. Not talking good offenses, they were top of the league status. There are teams every year with poor defenses and good offenses, or poor offenses with good defenses.

As NFL fans, we have been conditioned for years to look at volume stats like yards allowed or points allowed as a measure for success in the NFL. How much someone passes or runs for can make for nice anecdotal discussions in the context of fantasy football, but has next to nothing to do with winning in the NFL.

What? Points allowed is no more useful than yards allowed?

If odds say a bad defense is indicative of the quality of an entire team, how could any team who was near the bottom of the league in points allowed (and consequently - because of "odds" - near the bottom in points scored) win anything close to the 6.5 average?

19 of 20 teams reduced their yards allowed (by an average of 827 yards, or 13.2%), and 17 of 20 teams improved their number of wins. The median win improvement is three wins, and that bodes well for Dallas in 2014.

Because I guess when the average doesn't look that good you might as well go for the middle number?

Just to recap:

1. He found no correlation between yards allowed and wins, going as far as saying it has basically nothing to do with winning.

2. Projected that correlation onto just about every other stat, including points allowed.

3. Acknowledged that offenses can perform well enough to carry a horrible defense, but claimed that defensive performance is a measuring stick for the entire team based on "odds".

4. Carried out a defensive only comparison using the previously-established worthless statistic of yards, knowing that it means nothing in terms of wins.

5. Found that teams generally improve in both the statistically worthless area that has no bearing on winning and in wins, and then picked the middle number of 3 additional wins from the list of previous outcomes.

6. Concluded that it's good news for Dallas.

 

[jobberone]

If you average 28-30 ppg on offense then your odds to make the playoffs is 80%+ if I remember correctly. However we are giving up 28 ppg on average the last three years. We can do that if we score 35 ppg and still make the playoffs. Not so much if you score 408ish and give up 402ish.

SBs have been won recently by defense. Getting to the playoffs is more about offense.

 

[jterrell]

Makes sense. Teams with such low rankings are obviously going to devote significant resources towards getting better. Or they're getting players back from injury. In our case, I'd guess we probably devoted fewer resources than the average given our cap constraints and the fact that we spent our #1 on offense again.

Yup.
That is in fact the major caveat.
NO in 2012... drafted Vaccaro to walk in and start at FS in 13 amongst other free agent moves.

GB in 2011... used 5 picks in the first 4 rounds on defenders. Casey Hayward was a rookie of the year candidate.

DEN in 2010 ... drafted Von Miller at 2 and 3 other defenders within 4 rounds.

 

[jterrell]

All in all this defense will get better. But how soon and how much is open to debate.
We could certainly be worse before we get better.

Dallas had cap clean up to do and also some injury issues to work through.
I don't expect our week 1 defense to be very good.
But I do expect weeks 12-16 this year to be better than weeks 12-16 last year. --a lot of youth(much of it gained forced experience last year) on this defense that should improve
I just hope those games matter for more than draft slot.

I don't think any sane person is suggesting we can't climb to about 25 on defense but expecting that and saying it is possible are two very different things.
And anyone suggesting we climb higher than that is probably not basing it in the roster or schedule or coherent thought.

 

[CCBoy]

On the injury scene, even Murphy's Law catches up with itself...and things straighten up.

 

[jobberone]

We were 26th in ppg given up although yardage wise we really sucked. I'm not sure how well we will do but I suspect we can easily be at the top of the bottom third or even mediocre.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Or, another way of framing this is moving from dead last to 19th will require the offense to be better than Denver was last year for the results to end up in the black as far as the play-offs go.

I'd love a recap of the moves made to bolster this defense which can suggest improvment enough to get this team in the top 15.

I just want to see how that works.

 

[CCBoy]

TwoDeep, to cross apply, I bet one would have to go back to the five years before Jerry Jones and Jimmy Johnson entered the picture, and the five years to get three Lombardis.

 

[visionary]

What injury records were broken? Just curious, because we weren't even the most injured team last year.

Careful, with such factual questions you are going against the legend of Jerry jones and the myth of Jason Garrett . When the blight befell the great Dallas cowboys, these 2 heroes single -handedly inspired them to snatch eternal mediocrity from the jaws of victory. Such historical figures are not to be trifled with.

 

[CowboyDan]

With all this injury talk, I think it's a good time to remind you that we already lost Lee for the season....and we haven't even hit training camp yet.