Blitzen
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I do not care to discuss the future of Dak Prescott because I feel virtually certain he will receive a substantial extension and raise within 3 months.
I wanted to discuss how you viewed team building from a front office perspective (especially the QB position). From my perspective, it is very difficult to succeed in the front office for most general managers. The huge bulk of clubs give their general managers 1-3 years to successfully construct a great or ascending team. They are thus at the mercy of the draftable players that happen in their tenure, the division they are in (and opponents on the whole), the coaching staffs they hire, injuries and a host of other uncontrollable variables. Depending on their perceived success (years 1-3) from their owner-they get to stay on or get fired shortly after hire.
The QB position is still viewed as the all important position within the game today, and considering the history of which QB’s win the Super Bowl (or even make it to the Super Bowl) it is hard to argue that it is not very important when constructing a roster. I think there can be contention as to how important a particular QB is to a particular team. Fans argue whether another QB could have similar results with the other players of a team-and if the QB of their team could succeed on another team. It’s an act of theory, but fun and impossible to have definition.
General managers for most clubs are basically forced to select a rookie QB many times because they took over an unsuccessful team— that may have a highly drafted young unsuccessful QB already on the roster. There are rarely successful (even middling) QB’s that hit the market, and the league will typically sign them pretty quickly because the general managers must attempt immediate success. Highly drafted rookie QB’s most often go to very poor offensive squads with little to no established offensive lineman or weapons and brand new coaching staffs. The team that drafted them may have given up substantial future draft assets (via trade) that now cannot be used to bolster the team in the near future. Many teams are now drafting players that can really run the ball at the top of the draft because they understand their protection and weapons will be poor but the QB can always try to bail and pick up yards or score with their legs. Many of the new rookie QB’s are not at all ready to run a pro offense mentally, but the teams have no choice but to play them because of the ticking clock. My contention is this is the leading reason for a QB to never reach successful starter status (played too early and no established protection or weapons).
For example, I would contend that Bryce Young would likely have much better success if he was playing this season with San Francisco instead of Carolina. If you swapped Bryce and Brock, the two teams would likely have finished similarly in my opinion.
I do not contend that QB’s are completely dependent on the players around them. I contend that there are many (maybe 20-40) QB’s with similar ceilings with the different clubs. The biggest wildcard for many of these is rushing ability because there are huge differences here-and many of the best rushing QB’s are underdeveloped in the passing game (many times because they are such gifted runners that their teams never leaned on that skill).
I do not believe that QB’s are a dime a dozen, but I do believe there is this mass perception that the QB position is a high premium with the league because of their difference making ability. I think people look at the Houston Texans, and think that the reason for their turnaround is completely due to CJ Stroud. They forget that last season Houston lost many games barely-and came pretty close to upsetting Dallas at home. While he is absolutely a big part of the team’s success, it does not mean that he would have similar success with Carolina this season. Other team variables have way more weight in the equation, and are lazily left out (or heavily diminished) because people start believing the variables are fixed values.
Since most general managers do not have the luxury of waiting for a rookie QB to develop or to get more protection and weapons before playing them-many get destroyed and their career labeled as a bust (though by my estimation, they never had a chance). By the third year, a new coaching staff takes over and might give the QB one more chance (though it may be like a dumbed down chance because the coaching staff is intending to replace them ASAP)-the young QB might have also developed PTSD from having next to zero protection and weapons their whole career.
Some QB’s are fortunate and get drafted by a good squad that traded up to get them, or a team that endured a season where their starter went down early with an injury and struggled more to win games with the backup. Some are fortunate to get to sit and develop while watching an established starter work (sometimes for multiple years). Some have to play right away.
What characteristics make up a successful QB for you, and which ones are the most important? For me it is 1a and 1b-throwing ability (including ball placement accuracy and touch/power) then mental/emotional aptitude. The latter is extremely important and probably the most difficult to read. How do teams measure the potential for their QB to not poop their pants in the biggest moments? Do they have psychiatrists that personally evaluate or a coach or administrative assistant just interviews them and trys to get a read? That skill is a baseline for any successful QB, but not everyone has it and there are varying levels that we can see even from the Cowboys starter. Dak has the ability to not get shook from regular season games where the opponent’s defense is not very good and the game’s importance is not playoff game material. The story changes when the game’s importance and stress level gets amped up (plus the opposing defense is also feeling it).
What is your answer to the first question from the last paragraph. Sorry for the novel.
I wanted to discuss how you viewed team building from a front office perspective (especially the QB position). From my perspective, it is very difficult to succeed in the front office for most general managers. The huge bulk of clubs give their general managers 1-3 years to successfully construct a great or ascending team. They are thus at the mercy of the draftable players that happen in their tenure, the division they are in (and opponents on the whole), the coaching staffs they hire, injuries and a host of other uncontrollable variables. Depending on their perceived success (years 1-3) from their owner-they get to stay on or get fired shortly after hire.
The QB position is still viewed as the all important position within the game today, and considering the history of which QB’s win the Super Bowl (or even make it to the Super Bowl) it is hard to argue that it is not very important when constructing a roster. I think there can be contention as to how important a particular QB is to a particular team. Fans argue whether another QB could have similar results with the other players of a team-and if the QB of their team could succeed on another team. It’s an act of theory, but fun and impossible to have definition.
General managers for most clubs are basically forced to select a rookie QB many times because they took over an unsuccessful team— that may have a highly drafted young unsuccessful QB already on the roster. There are rarely successful (even middling) QB’s that hit the market, and the league will typically sign them pretty quickly because the general managers must attempt immediate success. Highly drafted rookie QB’s most often go to very poor offensive squads with little to no established offensive lineman or weapons and brand new coaching staffs. The team that drafted them may have given up substantial future draft assets (via trade) that now cannot be used to bolster the team in the near future. Many teams are now drafting players that can really run the ball at the top of the draft because they understand their protection and weapons will be poor but the QB can always try to bail and pick up yards or score with their legs. Many of the new rookie QB’s are not at all ready to run a pro offense mentally, but the teams have no choice but to play them because of the ticking clock. My contention is this is the leading reason for a QB to never reach successful starter status (played too early and no established protection or weapons).
For example, I would contend that Bryce Young would likely have much better success if he was playing this season with San Francisco instead of Carolina. If you swapped Bryce and Brock, the two teams would likely have finished similarly in my opinion.
I do not contend that QB’s are completely dependent on the players around them. I contend that there are many (maybe 20-40) QB’s with similar ceilings with the different clubs. The biggest wildcard for many of these is rushing ability because there are huge differences here-and many of the best rushing QB’s are underdeveloped in the passing game (many times because they are such gifted runners that their teams never leaned on that skill).
I do not believe that QB’s are a dime a dozen, but I do believe there is this mass perception that the QB position is a high premium with the league because of their difference making ability. I think people look at the Houston Texans, and think that the reason for their turnaround is completely due to CJ Stroud. They forget that last season Houston lost many games barely-and came pretty close to upsetting Dallas at home. While he is absolutely a big part of the team’s success, it does not mean that he would have similar success with Carolina this season. Other team variables have way more weight in the equation, and are lazily left out (or heavily diminished) because people start believing the variables are fixed values.
Since most general managers do not have the luxury of waiting for a rookie QB to develop or to get more protection and weapons before playing them-many get destroyed and their career labeled as a bust (though by my estimation, they never had a chance). By the third year, a new coaching staff takes over and might give the QB one more chance (though it may be like a dumbed down chance because the coaching staff is intending to replace them ASAP)-the young QB might have also developed PTSD from having next to zero protection and weapons their whole career.
Some QB’s are fortunate and get drafted by a good squad that traded up to get them, or a team that endured a season where their starter went down early with an injury and struggled more to win games with the backup. Some are fortunate to get to sit and develop while watching an established starter work (sometimes for multiple years). Some have to play right away.
What characteristics make up a successful QB for you, and which ones are the most important? For me it is 1a and 1b-throwing ability (including ball placement accuracy and touch/power) then mental/emotional aptitude. The latter is extremely important and probably the most difficult to read. How do teams measure the potential for their QB to not poop their pants in the biggest moments? Do they have psychiatrists that personally evaluate or a coach or administrative assistant just interviews them and trys to get a read? That skill is a baseline for any successful QB, but not everyone has it and there are varying levels that we can see even from the Cowboys starter. Dak has the ability to not get shook from regular season games where the opponent’s defense is not very good and the game’s importance is not playoff game material. The story changes when the game’s importance and stress level gets amped up (plus the opposing defense is also feeling it).
What is your answer to the first question from the last paragraph. Sorry for the novel.