Cap-love: Or, How I Stopped Worrying and Found a Sliver of Hope

[John813]

I agree with most of what you said, but I think this is the point. Maybe they jumped the gun, but it's more that they bet on Tua and were wrong. You can go back and forth quibbling about players compared to what the Rams did and that sort of thing, but I think it's pretty clear that the Dolphins were all in, and are basically paying the bill this year.

The Dolphins were wrong about Tua, the Rams were right about Stafford. Switch those two and who knows how the story plays out. The Dolphins really wanted Brady too, for that short-term window.

I just think the Rams and Eagles sort of built the team up better before their "All in moves". I get your point. If Stafford doesn't win a SB, especially with that awful PI no call vs the Saints that allowed the Rams to go to the SB, is Les still a genius?
Eagles had made several runs to the SB under Howie, so at least he has more than one run, but it takes luck and just the right timing to win over sheer talent acquisition.
Tampa had a loaded team outside of a blind Winston. Brady goes there, wins the SB, when in theory, any good QB may of done the same thing. Winston throwing 20+ INT killed the previous year team.


Forgot that the Dolphins also lost a 1st rounder due to tampering with Tom Brady lol.

 

[Kwyn]

True, about the cap changing. Certainly $20m in a void year 5 years down the road is a far less significant part of the cap than it would have been then.

I guess fundamentally I don't like the Rams model because it depends so much on luck and really has no durability. Nothing they've done worked if they didn't luck into Stafford, and they are done for probably a decade after 1- or 2-year window. The Eagles built a much more durable roster, but even they have depended on anomalies. I'd argue that the Dolphins have followed the same path as these two teams, and we see where they are at.

I think I'm probably in the minority that I'd rather be in the playoffs every year than mortgage the future too much for a one or two year chance before a rebuild. Anything can happen in the playoffs, and in the abstract, I'd rather have something to root for every year. I don't really get the appeal of winning a Super Bowl and rebuilding for the next 20 years lol.

All that said, Jerry has to be more aggressive with cash, he just isn't. This year's cash spend isn't going to be any different than previous. But he can spend a lot more cash without pulling as much from the future as the Eagles.

You’re absolutely correct that eventually every team’s bubble will pop. It’s inevitable but it’s been proven that it’s currently the only demonstrated way to win a title.

The last team to do it the conservative way was the patriots but they had the GOAT QB, GOAT Coach and GOAT GM.

The Dolphins did go all in. They committed the cardinal sin of cash over cap. Don’t max out the card on the wrong talent. Their previous GM went crazy with Tua and Tyreek. Their owner gave a Ferrari to a guy who should have been driving a minivan, recognized the failure and fired him. Now they are rebuilding

But their mega rich owner still believes

What they are doing this year is a hard core one year reset. They paid Tua $55m in severance and cut hill.

This season they have $175m in dead cap. A record blowing amount. They’ll have a record $120m in free cap next year and can flat out buy any free agent they want.

Bad execution by a bad GM hasn’t deterred Stephen Ross from staying committed to the maximizer mindset. The fired Chris Grier and hired Jon-Eric Sullivan and are going to immediately go for it again.

They may be the flaw for Jerry. He can never bring himself to tear it down to the studs and rebuild.

 

[Kwyn]

If I may offer my insight on the Dolphins.

Dolphins were open about tanking for the 2020 QB draft class.
Traded away Tunsil, Fitzpatrick(FS) and made moves to suck.
Unfortunately, they also signed Ryan Fitzpatrick who pulled wins out of a hat and cost them the 1st overall.

In my opinion, what the Dolphins did wrong, was count their eggs before they hatched.
After all those trades to tank, they had tons of first round picks to keep building around Tua.
They had three 1st rounders in 2020. Took Tua, Austin Jackson(raw tackle) and then Noah Igbobusta at corner,

They then traded 1st to move around the 2021 draft, taking Waddle over guys like Sewell, Horn, Surtain Parsons Slater etc.
The following year they trade a first for Tyreek Hill.
Then trade a first for Bradley Chubb etc...
All three were good players, but Waddle over keeping Tua alive hurt. Hill was a dangerous WR, but also made Tua force feed him a lot.
Chubb was a good edge, but they had to pay him right away.

For a stretch Tua looked good, but had no offensive line, which lead to him getting his brain rocked and hip tweaked again. Which he missed at least two playoff runs due to injuries
They also had some talent on defense like Wilkins, but also had declined in the secondary, linebackers were JAGs etc.

So, they had talent in certain areas, but then just meh in others. No team can be truly loaded in every spot, but Miami tried to jump the gun in rebuilding, but doomed themselves in getting the splash pieces too soon.

Chris Grier was a bad GM. He somehow failed up to GM

Great post and a good take on the dolphins strategy

 

[AstroPilota]

It's refreshing to see the shift in spending. Add to the equation of totally nuking the inept Defensive coaching staff doubles-up the shift. Suddenly - the post-season window has been opened whereas it's been jammed shut lately.

 

[Kwyn]

I think your conclusion is overreaching.

I That’s why I said I have a “sliver of hope”and not an “avalanche of optimism”

 

[gimmesix]

I That’s why I said I have a “sliver of hope”and not an “avalanche of optimism”

Fair enough. I just feel like fans are drawing some conclusions about this season being different that don't hold up to scrutiny (especially when it comes to free agency). The only thing I've felt positive about during this cheap FA philosophy they adopted after the 2012 season is their willingness to do trades. That really hasn't wavered. It ramped up a level, though, last year when we traded Parsons because (I believe) Jerry wanted to prove that he was smart to do it. Thus we got Quinnen, which was a good move. Asking for Clark in the trade also was a good move IMO. I do think we wanted to absolutely show we won the trade by getting Maxx Crosby, but the price was too steep.

Getting Pickens was a more typical trade move by this front office. They took on a player that Pittsburgh was trying to unload because of behavioral concerns based on the fact that they could get him for lower value. The fact that it actually seems to have worked out in our favor might make us view it differently than some other trades. Winters also was a typical trade move (like Brandin Cooks, Stephon Gilmore) with the team trying to get a starter for cheap. Rashan Gary also falls into this category. How those work out, we'll see. Occasionally, there's a costly Amari Cooper move where the front office realizes that its plan is completely failing and course corrects hard.

If we had signed a free agent like Trey Hendrickson (in addition to trading for Gary) when we failed to land Crosby, then I'd feel like we're seeing some change and this front office is back to taking some risks. But right now, the biggest risk they took in free agency was for a safety, and it's only a $33 million risk. It may be a step in the right direction, but it's one small step for Jerry kind.

 

[LouBrown]

You’re absolutely correct that eventually every team’s bubble will pop. It’s inevitable but it’s been proven that it’s currently the only demonstrated way to win a title.

The last team to do it the conservative way was the patriots but they had the GOAT QB, GOAT Coach and GOAT GM.

I don't really agree with this.

Neither the Chiefs nor Seahawks have had real "All In" offseasons.

 

[Kwyn]

I don't really agree with this.

Neither the Chiefs nor Seahawks have had real "All In" offseasons.

Let’s discuss that.

The Chiefs - the fundemental difference isn’t that the chiefs aggressively max out their cards every single year and they do it proaxtively. The wave of restructuress we saw on the Cowboys this year? The Chiefs do that every year.

Mahomes’ contract being team friendly or a discount is one or the biggest fantasies in the league with media and fans. They have restructured huge amounts every years ($40m jsut this year) and that leaves them owing him a Quarter Billion Dollars over the next three years.

Thats the definition of all in. Hyper aggressive debt building year over year over year.

Their saving grace is that their top three contracts are awarded to NFL top 3 players at critical positions. They have terrific talent.

The way they handle Mahomes is the most aggressive single player cash over cap strat in history.

The piper will be paid though and they will rebuild, especially once Jones and Kelce are gone. They will instantly have tens of millions to spend.

Seahawks - The Seahawks have run a traditional draft and develop cap over cash stretch for years. Their GM went out and hired one of the best capologistd thrrr is and they have turned their model upside down (we have a former Razorback equipment manager and two time engineering intern running ours).

They ate $70m in dead money with some cuts and then restructured their best, giving them room to get Cupp and Darnold.

They did it in a year, gambled on the right talent, and won a championship.

This is almost exactly what the Cowboys did by trading Micah and Osa and restructuring Lamb, Dak and Smith.

A big trade now for a high value player would put a nice bow on the cap strat turnaround but it takes two to tango.

 

[DandyDon52]

These teams have outside wealth and don’t penny-pinch when it comes to their football teams. Their owners have huge wallets and aren’t afraid to open them.

What are you trying to say ?
They cant spend personal $ on getting players

 

[Jarntt]

Kind of ironic with all these comments when the cowboys were one of the first to push money into outer years and were crucified for it. It’s not just blindly push money forward. It’s pay the RIGHT people, the right amount and at the right time. We did it wrong. That’s worse than not doing it at all. We still do it wrong and wait to long and pay the same player more because of it. So again it isn’t as simple as push money into outer years. That can be disastrous if not done smartly and that’s been our issue

Also, I don’t think the Seahawks were a typical example of doing this last year at all

 

[Kwyn]

What are you trying to say ?
They cant spend personal $ on getting players

All owners are billionaires.

But not all billionaires are the same

It’s the difference between cap room and cash liquiditY

They don’t use their own money to circumvent the salary cap. They use their immense wealth to pay massive bonuses of cold hard cash on day one.

The cash poor teams can’t do that becuse all of their money is tied up in the team.

It’s a money trick

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

What are you trying to say ?
They cant spend personal $ on getting players

In the nfl you’re allowed to credit card your cap hits.

So if a player is available right now and the bengals and Rams have 25m$ in cap space, The Bengals might offer him 25m$ a year…. And then the rams could offer him 40m$ a year. What they’d do then is move their cap hits from paying him that much to future years, allowing them to stay under the cap.

But what that would mean is LA would have to shell out more “right now” money than Cincy would; something a lot of owners don’t like doing. Which is why very few teams actually try to do what LA does, even though it’s proven to be effective

 

[Kwyn]

Kind of ironic with all these comments when the cowboys were one of the first to push money into outer years and were crucified for it. It’s not just blindly push money forward. It’s pay the RIGHT people, the right amount and at the right time.

Also, I don’t think the Seahawks were a typical example of doing this last year at all

Check post 28. They definitely did a rapid pivot from caution to aggression.

 

[Jarntt]

Check post 28. They definitely did a rapid pivot from caution to aggression.

They did the of pushing money into outer years. The comparison to that strategy with them makes zero sense

 

[Kwyn]

They did the of pushing money into outer years. The comparison to that strategy with them makes zero sense

Apologies. I was specifically responding to your comment about the Seahawks.

I broke down the Cowboys attempts at cash over cap agression, and why the cowboy version failed, in post #3

 

[Verdict]

I think people mistake the Cowboys not being active in free agency with being cheap. They are not the same.

The Cowboys have simply over valued their own free agents. Dak is seriously overpaid. We overpaid guys like Sean Lee, Witten, Dez, and many others on the downside of their careers.

The Cowboys spend a lot of money, they just allocate that spending poorly. The Cowboys are also FAR too loyal to their own players.

 

[DandyDon52]

All owners are billionaires.

But not all billionaires are the same

It’s the difference between cap room and cash liquiditY

They don’t use their own money to circumvent the salary cap. They use their immense wealth to pay massive bonuses of cold hard cash on day one.

The cash poor teams can’t do that becuse all of their money is tied up in the team.

It’s a money trick

I would think that even a cash bonus would be paid out of the cap $
I think the only thing a owner could do with personal $ is spend it on coaches, equipment,and other things that are allowed.
Coaches is a big thing, If you have a good OC or DC they could keep them if they were willing to pay what it took.
If what you are saying is true, the owners could circumvent the cap easily, and they all can afford to do that nowadays.

 

[DandyDon52]

What they’d do then is move their cap hits from paying him that much to future years, allowing them to stay under the cap.

Then the nfl needs to make some new cap rules to prevent some of this.
Otherwise it defeats the purpose of the cap.
I wonder how far in the future they can go?? and with how much $$ lol

 

[Kwyn]

I would think that even a cash bonus would be paid out of the cap $
I think the only thing a owner could do with personal $ is spend it on coaches, equipment,and other things that are allowed.
Coaches is a big thing, If you have a good OC or DC they could keep them if they were willing to pay what it took.
If what you are saying is true, the owners could circumvent the cap easily, and they all can afford to do that nowadays.

You’ve actually kind of figured it out but you just can’t believe it.

Signing bonuses and void years are the key to an aggressive all-in cap strategy

Signing bonuses can be spread across *all* the years of a contract, even the “fake” void years tacked on at the end.

Here’s an example

4 Years, $120M (With 1 Void Year)

• Total Contract: $120m
• Day one check from owner: $60m
• Bonus spread: $12m per year over 5 years ($60m/5)

Year 1

• Cash: $61m ($60m bonus + $1m base)
• Cap Hit: $13 Million ($1m base + $12m bonus).

Year 2

• Cash: $1m (Base)
• Cap Hit: $13m ($1m base + $12m bonus)

Year 3

• Cash: $1m (Base)
• Cap Hit: $13m ($1m base + $12m bonus)

Year 4 ( the reckoning)

• Cash: $57m (cash balance)
• Cap Hit: $69m ($57m base + $12m bonus)
• This is where teams restructure a player they want to keep. They just kick the can down the road)

Year 5 (Enter the Void)

• Cash: $0 (He is a free agent)
• Cap Hit (Dead Money): $12m (final bonus payment)

This isn't theory.

This is exactly how every modern champion forces their Super Bowl window open.

It’s a high stakes cheat code for the rich and the bold, letting owners who aren't afraid shove their chips to the middle of the table and 'buy the pot' from the poor owners stuck playing on a short stack.

Jerry has had a mountain of chips for thirty years, but he usually folded when the pot got fat. Finally, for the first time in a generation, he might actually be playing like the biggest stack at the table.

 

[Kwyn]

I think people mistake the Cowboys not being active in free agency with being cheap. They are not the same.

The Cowboys have simply over valued their own free agents. Dak is seriously overpaid. We overpaid guys like Sean Lee, Witten, Dez, and many others on the downside of their careers.

The Cowboys spend a lot of money, they just allocate that spending poorly. The Cowboys are also FAR too loyal to their own players.

Not cheap. Scared.

Jerry doesn’t like to play unless he has a full house and the other guy is drawing dead (to follow my metaphor from the post jsut above)