Cap speculation - $155m by 2017.

[Cowboy Brian]

We saw a jump from 123m in 2013 to 133m in 2014, which is an astronomical jump. This is just the beginning, with the CBA structured to see the players get an increasing portion of TV Rights Fees it will continue to jump over the next few years. Most speculation is showing between 6-8m next year, so I'll call it 7 bringing it to 140m for 2015. I'd project based on the ratings, the way negotiations and the structure of the CBA that the cap will hit at least 150m by 2017, likely 155m.

• Projected 2017- 155m
• Projected 2016 - 148m
• Projected 2015 - 140m
• Actual 2014 - 133m
• Historical 2013 - 123m

This is completely feasible, and contracts such as DRCs' 5 year 39m agreement are relatively much less than they have been. Think of it in this basic fashion - 7.8m of the 2013 123m cap is 6.34%, it's 5.03% with the 2017 155m. Effectively allowing you to sign 20 7.8m players. Clearly it won't work that way, but contracts have regressed immensely. In terms of the standard franchise QB contract of 20m per year 16.26% in 2013, it's a relatively minuscule 12.9% in 2017.

 

[Hoofbite]

QB contracts will not remain stagnant.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

QB contracts will not remain stagnant.

I agree. It's basic economics. Like in the real world. Average salaries have increased, but average cost of living has increased even more. It's a way of tricking us simple folk into complacency.

 

[bark]

QB contracts will not remain stagnant.

I agree and the costs to sign free agents will only escalate

 

[Cowboy Brian]

I agree and the costs to sign free agents will only escalate

QB contracts will not remain stagnant.

True - but the point I'm trying to make is that it's the perfect time to sign a big money free agent. Wish we had landed Ward. Say we were to go 5 years, 35m for Melton. That may be a huge number, at 7m a year it's big in 2014 - but by 2017 that would not be a high contract at all at 4.52% of the cap.

 

[Future]

So in 2017 Brandon Carr's contract would be for $60 mill instead of $50, got it.

 

[Cowboy Brian]

So in 2017 Brandon Carr's contract would be for $60 mill instead of $50, got it.

It would be, except its not. Proportionally we will have him and any free-agents we sign this year at a significant discount. Next years free-agents will be had at a decent 9% discount as well.

 

[Future]

It would be, except its not. Proportionally we will have him and any free-agents we sign this year at a significant discount. Next years free-agents will be had at a decent 9% discount as well.

The point is, increased salary cap won't mean much beyond the short term b/c contracts are just going to get bigger. I wasn't being specific with the numbers.

 

[Cowboy Brian]

The point is, increased salary cap won't mean much beyond the short term b/c contracts are just going to get bigger. I wasn't being specific with the numbers.

Agreed - which is why this is the perfect off-season to bring in big money free agents, next year is good too but not as good. We really should've gotten Ward .

 

[erod]

The confusing part of this is that teams are required to spend 90+ percent of the allotted cap, so it'll just absorb dead money for a while, then salaries will go up.

 

[casmith07]

The kid knows what he's talking about.

 

[Hoofbite]

True - but the point I'm trying to make is that it's the perfect time to sign a big money free agent. Wish we had landed Ward. Say we were to go 5 years, 35m for Melton. That may be a huge number, at 7m a year it's big in 2014 - but by 2017 that would not be a high contract at all at 4.52% of the cap.

I don't think it's wise to say "I think I may have more 3 years from now, therefore I will spend more now".

Percentage-wise nobody knows what a DL should cost now or in 3 years.

I guess we could take the average for all the starters but just saying 4.52% is great could be true, or it could be false.

If Melton isn't a guy worth $30M, you don't give him $35M just because it will look better 3 years from now.

 

[Cowboy Brian]

I don't think it's wise to say "I think I may have more 3 years from now, therefore I will spend more now".

Percentage-wise nobody knows what a DL should cost now or in 3 years.

I guess we could take the average for all the starters but just saying 4.52% is great could be true, or it could be false.

If Melton isn't a guy worth $30M, you don't give him $35M just because it will look better 3 years from now.

I'm just saying we shouldn't be afraid of paying a slight premium.

 

[mmohican29]

I'm just saying we shouldn't be afraid of paying a slight premium.

noone else seems to be that's for sure. Denver has a huge QB Contract and upcoming negotiations with D. Thomas and they surely haven't taken their foot off the gas pedal for fear of future ramifications.

 

[65fastback2plus2]

The best way to beat inflation is to spend your money now....not save it for later when it is worth less.