Catching the Bears. Check my math

[NorthTexan95]

At this time I don't have a preference for being the 3rd or 4th seed but how likely is it we can catch the Bears? Assuming my numbers are correct, there is a decent change we can pass them in the standings, whether that's a good thing or not.

Currently we trail by Chicago by one game so it all begins with us winning one more game than Chicago in these final three games. Assuming we finish tied with Chicago, let's go through the tiebreakers.

1. Head to Head
We did not play Chicago.

2. Conference Record
Currently Chicago is 7-2 and Dallas is 7-3. Chicago finishes with three NFC opponents so if we end up tied in the standings this is likely to be tied. In fact, if Chicago loses two and we lose once to Indy then we could win on this tie breaker.

3. Best Won-Loss Record in Common Games (I believe a minimum four games)
Turns out we have four common opponents: Giants, Seahawks, Lions, and Buccaneers. Chicago has already played all four of these teams and has a 4-1 record against them. We are currently 2-1 against these teams with a game remaining against the Buccaneers and Giants. We win those two games and this is tied at 4-1.

4. Strength of Victory (record of all the teams they have defeated that season)
Currently Dallas leads .491 to .462.

5. Strength of Schedule (record of all the teams they have played this season)
Currently Dallas leads .452 to .440

Remaining Tiebreakers
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

 

[ClappingCarrot]

Nice analysis. Never thought I'd say this, but I'm rooting for Aaron Rodgers to torch these guys next week.

 

[Nightman]

And the Prize is still a trip to NO or LA

I don't think it matters

Our Magic Number with Philly is 1..... we need one win or one Philly loss to clinch Division

 

[erod]

Both teams will definitely want to avoid Seattle.

 

[erod]

Do they throw out divisional opponents for common games? The Bears played the Lions twice (Dallas only played them once), and Dallas played the Giants twice.

Would it only be the Seattle and Tampa games?

 

[BAT]

Both teams will definitely want to avoid Seattle.

I want Seattle. Team needs to continue playing with backs against wall mentality, every win is must win. Especially in postseason.

Plus we owe the Hags some payback.

 

[ClintDagger]

And the Prize is still a trip to NO or LA

I don't think it matters

Our Magic Number with Philly is 1..... we need one win or one Philly loss to clinch Division

I think if you’re Dallas you want to draw LA, and if you’re Chicago you want to draw NO. I guess the problem is the #1 seed is still up for grabs although I guess NO is there now.

 

[Jake]

Nice analysis. Never thought I'd say this, but I'm rooting for Aaron Rodgers to torch these guys next week.

Be careful...would you rather see Kirk Cousins as the 6 seed or Aaron Rodgers? I know who I'd choose.

 

[erod]

I want Seattle. Team needs to continue playing with backs against wall mentality, every win is must win. Especially in postseason.

Plus we owe the Hags some payback.

Think it through though.

Dallas plays the Vikings/Panthers/Eagles or whomever, then go play the Rams or Saints and see what happens.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks will beat Chicago, then very well could beat the Rams or Saints. They're about as good of a 5-seed as you'll ever see.

That makes a possible path for an NFC Championship game in Dallas against Seattle.

 

[ClappingCarrot]

Be careful...would you rather see Kirk Cousins as the 6 seed or Aaron Rodgers? I know who I'd choose.

Cam Newton, actually.

 

[erod]

I think if you’re Dallas you want to draw LA, and if you’re Chicago you want to draw NO. I guess the problem is the #1 seed is still up for grabs although I guess NO is there now.

If Dallas could get LA, that will basically be a home game. LOL

 

[Jipper]

I don’t care who we get in the WC round....if we’re a good team we will take care of business at home.


I would much rather play in LA than in NO but chances are if we’re going to make it to the NFCC game we’re going to have to play in both cities, so doesn’t matter which one we go to first.


If we’re good we will win, simple as that

 

[Nightman]

I think if you’re Dallas you want to draw LA, and if you’re Chicago you want to draw NO. I guess the problem is the #1 seed is still up for grabs although I guess NO is there now.

LA might be a Home crowd after all these years of being Free Agent Fans

 

[BAT]

Think it through though.

Dallas plays the Vikings/Panthers/Eagles or whomever, then go play the Rams or Saints and see what happens.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks will beat Chicago, then very well could beat the Rams or Saints. They're about as good of a 5-seed as you'll ever see.

That makes a possible path for an NFC Championship game in Dallas against Seattle.

I understand taking the easier path but this team does not respond well to that.

I say bring on the Hags, if anything they should be sweating the Cowboys.

Can't be the man unless you beat the man.

 

[JustChip]

And the Prize is still a trip to NO or LA

I don't think it matters

Our Magic Number with Philly is 1..... we need one win or one Philly loss to clinch Division

Well, it doesn't matter in the sense that we have to beat either one to advance. They're both formidable offenses so I don't see a difference there. But I think it's safe to say that playing in the Superdome is a much more formidable task than the Coliseum. I rate McVeigh and Payton equal, but not Brees and Goff. I know we stymied him at home, but I don't expect that same result in the Dome.

 

[Verdict]

Both teams will definitely want to avoid Seattle.

Seattle the team isn't as formidable as much the officiating seems to favor Seattle.

 

[SoupcanSam]

Both teams will definitely want to avoid Seattle.

They looked like crap yesterday.

I thought I was watching baseball at one point when I dosed off and jumped up, looked at the score, then noticed football helmets.

We'll kick their ***.

 

[NorthTexan95]

Do they throw out divisional opponents for common games? The Bears played the Lions twice (Dallas only played them once), and Dallas played the Giants twice.

Would it only be the Seattle and Tampa games?

I had the same question. I think they do since they use winning percentage. If they don't it would be hard for teams to ever have the 4 team minimum for common opponents.

 

[Redball Express]

Think it through though.

Dallas plays the Vikings/Panthers/Eagles or whomever, then go play the Rams or Saints and see what happens.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks will beat Chicago, then very well could beat the Rams or Saints. They're about as good of a 5-seed as you'll ever see.

That makes a possible path for an NFC Championship game in Dallas against Seattle.

The playoffs are problematic.

With GB, Philly and the Vikes and Carolina fading fast and probably out of the playoffs for us..

these are the 4 teams that have beaten us in the playoffs or regular season trying to get there to make the playoffs.

This is huge.

The other teams in the playoffs of the NFC do not play us often.

This is a big break going forward.

We have to take advantage.

 

[Aviano90]

At this time I don't have a preference for being the 3rd or 4th seed but how likely is it we can catch the Bears? Assuming my numbers are correct, there is a decent change we can pass them in the standings, whether that's a good thing or not.

Currently we trail by Chicago by one game so it all begins with us winning one more game than Chicago in these final three games. Assuming we finish tied with Chicago, let's go through the tiebreakers.

1. Head to Head
We did not play Chicago.

2. Conference Record
Currently Chicago is 7-2 and Dallas is 7-3. Chicago finishes with three NFC opponents so if we end up tied in the standings this is likely to be tied. In fact, if Chicago loses two and we lose once to Indy then we could win on this tie breaker.

3. Best Won-Loss Record in Common Games (I believe a minimum four games)
Turns out we have four common opponents: Giants, Seahawks, Lions, and Buccaneers. Chicago has already played all four of these teams and has a 4-1 record against them. We are currently 2-1 against these teams with a game remaining against the Buccaneers and Giants. We win those two games and this is tied at 4-1.

4. Strength of Victory (record of all the teams they have defeated that season)
Currently Dallas leads .491 to .462.

5. Strength of Schedule (record of all the teams they have played this season)
Currently Dallas leads .452 to .440

Remaining Tiebreakers
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Nice job.