I understand that Cowboys-Commanders games are crazy and that something unpredictable may happen to undo all of the best guessing done by the most astute analysts of our time. I get that. I acknowledge that God parted the Red Sea for Moses and the Israelites. I get that.
But what I see to frequently when it comes to discussing Cowboys and Indians is beer-swilling sophists show up on the scene and say, "Well, it's Cowboys and Commanders. You'll never know what's going to happen," as though this is some license to not forecast about the game whatsoever.
Taking the God parting the Red Sea concept, that would be like discrediting an oceanographer's analysis because God parted the Red Sea thousands of years ago. Okay. So what? On a consistent basis, what does that have to do with anything?
In 2006, the Commanders lost to the Vikings on Opening Night on Monday Night Football. They had nearly 200 yards passing. Satanic Moss was not a factor. Clinton Portis and the rushing attack barely got over 100 yards. The offense only scored 16 points.
What do you know? The next week against us, the Commanders approached 200 yards passing and 100 yards rushing. Their team only put up 10 points. It seems like everything went as planned.
In 2008, the Cowboys and the Commanders met in Week 11 on Sunday Night Football. The score was 14-10 Cowboys. Over the next seven games, including the rematch with the Cowboys, the Commanders averaged 13 points. That's another evidence of statistical consistency.
In 2009, the Commanders were reeling and we were finding our stride. We beat the undefeated Saints (holding them to their lowest point total of the year to that point). We blanked Washington. We blanked Philadelphia. Again, consistency.
In 2010, in our rematch, the Cowboys had been giving up 30+ points per game in their last three matches. The next week against Arizona, they gave up 27. What did they give up against the Commanders the week before? 30 points -- again, consistency.
You can use statistics and facts to predict what's going to happen in these games. Don't let the superstitious crowd talk you out of it with their menstrual blood poured on feathered headdresses.
Now, having that as a preamble to this thread, I'd like to list the following team stats:
Total Defense -- Cowboys, 4th; Commanders 11th
Points per Game -- Cowboys, 21st; Commanders, 6-T
Rushing D -- Cowboys, 2nd; Commanders, 24th
Passing D -- Cowboys, 16th; Commanders, 23rd
Total Offense -- Cowboys, 4th; Commanders, 11th
Points per Game -- Cowboys, 11th; Commanders, 12th
Rushing O -- Cowboys, 32nd; Commanders, 15th
Passing O -- Cowboys, 3-T; Commanders, 14th
Basically, we've got the 4th ranked defense going against the 11th ranked offense. We've got the 2nd ranked rushing defense going against the 15th ranked rushing offense. We've got the 16th ranked passing defense going against the 14th ranked passing offense.
While things are close to even in the passing defense versus passing offense department, here's why I think Dallas has the advantage.
Rex Grossman has a 59.1 career rating against 3-4 defenses. Twice he has been shutout and thrown three picks (NE, 2006; DAL, 2007). Oddly enough, his best statistical game against a 3-4 was last year against us when he threw 4 touchdowns and 2 picks en route to a 92-something passer rating.
But Paul Pasq-baloney doesn't run this defense. Rob Ryan does, and Rex Grossman has not faced a truly dominant Remus 3-4. Sure, he faced it in Oakland in 2007 and won, but surely we agree none of Rob's Oakland defenses compare to this one, even with the injuries.
We're going to shut down the run. We're going to force Grossman to pass. And that's the most decisive battle on the field because I don't expect our offense to contribute anything significant towards our victory, should we have one. If we lose, I'm not going to be surprised nor am I going to fret. This is a good football team stricken with injuries at the moment.
Commanders 7 0 3 6 16
Cowboys 0 3 10 7 20
Fred Davis, 8 yard touchdown catch from Rex Grossman 0-7
Dan Bailey kicks a 46 yard field goal. 3-7
Graham Gano kicks a 33 yard field goal. 3-10
Dan Bailey kicks a 38 yard field goal. 6-10
DeMarco Murray runs for a 24 yard touchdown. 13-10
***Dan Bailey misses a 42 yard field goal***
Graham Gano kicks a 36 yard field goal. 13-13
Tony Romo throws a 15 yard touchdown pass to Jason Witten. 20-13
Graham Gano kicks a 49 yard field goal. 20-16
COWBOYS:
Tony Romo -- 22/34, 227 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Felix Jones -- 10 carries, 37 yards
DeMarco Murray -- 8 carries, 51 yards; 2 catches, 11 yards
Jason Witten -- 10 catches, 98 yards, TD
Dez Bryant -- 4 catches, 56 yards
DeMarcus Ware -- 1 sack, 1 FF
Gerald Sensabaugh -- 1 INT
Terence Newman -- 1 sack, 1 INT
Commanders
Rex Grossman -- 21/39 yards, 243 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Tim Hightower -- 22 carries, 63 yards; 3 catches, 20 yards
Fred Davis -- 7 catches, 88 yards, 1 TD
Santana Moss -- 3 catches, 49 yards
Stephen Bowen -- 2 sacks
DuhAngelo Hall -- 1 INT
If anything, I want you guys to not expect Romo to be himself in this game. His throws are going to be restricted by that flak jacket. Hopefully, Garrett will run the ball more and not be afraid to insert Kitna if Romo can't get it done.