Common Assumptions

Bobhaze said:
We all make assumptions every year going into a new season. Most of our assumptions are based on what has happened in the past, and coupled with our hopes as fans, we have additional assumptions for the future.

But one thing that makes the NFL so hard to predict is what happened last year is not often an accurate prediction of the upcoming year. For example, we haven’t had a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004. Every year, there’s about a 50% drop off in NFL playoff teams making the playoffs again the following season. Last season, the number was slightly lower as just 5 of the 12 teams that made it into the 2019 postseason missed the playoffs in 2020.

It’s why the NFL is actually harder to predict than most sports.

So, let’s look at some typical assumptions we make as fans and whether or not those assumptions are reliable- yes, no or maybe.
  • Since the WFT won the NFCE last year, they won’t repeat- is that reliable? Well 17 straight seasons without a repeat nfc East winner is about as reliable as the NFL gets. Yes. WFT won’t repeat.
  • The Cowboys offense will pick up where they left off before Dak was hurt- We mostly assume this offense will be lights out, but I think it may start slow because Dak and most of the starters on offense haven’t played together in almost a year. They will probably start slow. Maybe. Or…yes eventually.
  • The Cowboys defense will be significantly better than last year- when your defense is at the bottom of the league, improvement is likely. I think this defense will struggle to gel early in the season as they learn to play together. But I do think they will be much better. Top 10 defense, no. Yes. This defense will be better but it may take several games to see it.
  • Zeke will have a rebound year- I think our running game will be much better but I don’t see Zeke having another dominant season like 2016-18. I think his tire treads are worn. The combo of Zeke and Pollard combined will have a good year. No. But the running game will be much better.
  • The Cowboys will make the playoffs- it’s hard to assume this when our Cowboys have only made the playoffs 7 of the last 21 seasons and 2 of the last 5. Do I think they will make the playoffs in 2021? Yes I do. Is this a fair assumption? Maybe.
  • Micah Parsons will be a beast as a rookie- Parsons appears to be the most defensive player we’ve had in decades. Barring injury, he should have a very quick impact. It may take a few games to get him used to the NFL. Yes, I assume he will be great.
We all make assumptions about our favorite team. What assumptions do you have and are they reliable?
Click to expand...
25 years and counting. We assume mean reversion kicks in and Dallas becomes great again. The problem is football is not random. There is a reason why we haven’t had success.
 
Dak_Attack_09 said:
OL & DL will make or break the season.

Having stability on both sides of the trenches allows your other good factors to repeat again making it into a pattern instead of a fluke.


Issac Alacron is going to be the 4th best OL on this team by end of the season. He will be able to play OG & OT.
Click to expand...
OL & DL always make or break a season.
 
Ranching said:
I don't assume anything, anymore. Too many unknowns and too many variables that can make or break a season. Nowadays, I just like to enjoy the games and will get hyped up for a playoff run, if and when the time comes!
I only assume that I will have a great meal on GameDay.....Salud, and Go Cowboys!!!!
Click to expand...
My thoughts as well.
 
Ranching said:
I don't assume anything, anymore. Too many unknowns and too many variables that can make or break a season. Nowadays, I just like to enjoy the games and will get hyped up for a playoff run, if and when the time comes!
I only assume that I will have a great meal on GameDay.....Salud, and Go Cowboys!!!!
Click to expand...

That's really the best way to approach the Cowboys under the Jones model. Expecting two guys who haven't figured it out in a quarter century to suddenly get it right is more hope than I can muster. It is what it is, it's not going to change, so cook up some good food, enjoy the show, and wish for the best. Maybe we'll get lucky, someday?
 
5th string QB, Micah Parsons will be used to win a playoff game.
 
CouchCoach said:
While assumptions aren't reliable, try negotiating these threads without them.

Some assumptions must be made to even form an opinion. Now, the opinion might be incorrect because of the assumption but assumptions are what all of this is about.
Click to expand...

There's enough speculation to satisfy even the most curious of those in our membership. It's food for the hungry fans, for sure. :D
 
Bobhaze said:
  • The Cowboys offense will pick up where they left off before Dak was hurt- We mostly assume this offense will be lights out, but I think it may start slow because Dak and most of the starters on offense haven’t played together in almost a year. They will probably start slow. Maybe. Or…yes eventually.
Click to expand...
If Dak is sharp, the offense should start *better* than last year.
  1. No Fat Zeke.
  2. Zeke also got his fumbling under control in the 2nd half of last season.
  3. Collins instead of Steele. Yuge.
  4. Tyron supposedly healthy. Also yuge.
  5. Williams healthy, and coming off his best season and a fully healthy off season.
  6. Rimington Award Winner with a full NFL offseason under his belt over Looney.
  7. Lamb ain't no rookie no more.
  8. Jarwin back.
That's a lot of reasons for the offense to be better to start this season, all of them significant in their own right.
 
Bobhaze said:
Yeah, I don’t think Zeke is terrible. Unquestionably he’s overpaid in a league where RBs are a dime a dozen. As Zeke enters his sixth season, he has been remarkably durable. No major injuries and he’s been a tough cookie on top of that. He’s been a very reliably good RB.

But when you look at the number of total touches Zeke has had going back to his Soph yr at OSU, he has a lot of miles on those tires. Does that mean he’s “finished”? No. But the days of him being a centerpiece of this offense are over. He may have another 1,000 yard season. Certainly hope so. But I also expect his total touches to be down around 16-18 instead of 30 like most years. Pollard will be getting 12-15 touches per game, which IMO will make the running game better overall, which is great.
Click to expand...

Best case is Zeke and Pollard are both threats *in the same snaps*. Both get more productive per snap because the threat of the other has to be accounted for.

Add in Lamb to the simultaneous run threats.

And Dak. Dak was a very judicious and effective runner as a rookie. I don't want that to disappear from his game.
 
Assumption 1:
The O-line will be heavily hit by injury again this season.

Assumption 2:
Rookie corners will make mistakes and occasionally give up big plays.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Staff online

Members online

... and 91 more.
Total: 7,480 (members: 191, guests: 7,289)
Robots: 1,262

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
474,007
Messages
14,506,192
Members
24,207
Latest member
TomGiantsfan
Back
Top