Complete Playoff Scenarios

[JD_KaPow]

I believe I've got all scenarios covered; please correct any errors you see. By seed:

1, 2, 3 Seed:
No chance (GB has clinched at least the 3 seed thanks to a better conference record)

4 Seed:
DAL beats NO and DAL beats WAS
OR
DAL beats WAS and BAL beats NYG
OR
DAL beats WAS and PHI beats NYG

5 Seed:
No chance (SEA or SF will be ahead of DAL)

6 Seed:
DAL beats NO and MIN loses out and CHI loses out and NYG loses one game
OR
DAL beats WAS and GB beats MIN and CHI loses out
OR
DAL beats WAS and GB beats MIN and MIN beats HOU and CHI loses one game

For this week, that means to root for:
DAL over NO
BAL over NYG
ARI over CHI

HOU-MIN: Depends (see the first and last 6 seed scenarios)

Oddly, the WAS-PHI game is completely irrelevant to the Cowboys' playoff chances.

 

[rbr651]

Except for RGIII taking a butt whooping from Philly could really crush his confidence which would also be a good thing.

 

[Reality]

As AdamJT has pointed out several times, three-way tiebreakers can trump head-to-head.

/reality

 

[JD_KaPow]

As AdamJT has pointed out several times, three-way tiebreakers can trump head-to-head.

Indeed. For example, that's where the last scenario listed comes into play. In that one, MIN has to beat HOU so that there's a 3-way tie between DAL, CHI and MIN for the 6 seed. We win that 3-way tiebreaker, even though we lose a 2-way to CHI.

 

[RomoIzDaMan]

I prefer to just concentrate on Cowboys winning week 16 and 17.Won't stop me from rooting for the Giants and Skins to lose this Sunday :starspin

 

[LeonDixson]

My head hurts.:

Regarding the 6th seed scenarios described above, which is most plausible? I think it's the 3rd one.

 

[GusTheo]

Man I can't wait for this week to be over so this entire thing will be a hell of a lot more clear.

At the end of the day, I can't see Arizona beating Chicago, no matter how much the Bears are struggling. But we can hope!

 

[bigdnlaca]

Minnesota have to lose out if Cowboys take 6 spot. Minn have Cowboys beat in NFC victories and opponents beaten winning percentage tiebreaks. If Minn beat HOU, and Cowboys fail to win division, there is no way Cowboys leap over Minn.

 

[viman96]

I believe I've got all scenarios covered; please correct any errors you see. By seed:

4 Seed:
DAL beats NO and DAL beats WAS
OR
DAL beats WAS and BAL beats NYG
OR
DAL beats WAS and PHI beats NYG

Dallas can lose to the Saints and still win the NFCE. Giants would need to lose 1 game and Cowboys would need to beat the Commanders.

 

[ufcrules1]

Man I can't wait for this week to be over so this entire thing will be a hell of a lot more clear.

At the end of the day, I can't see Arizona beating Chicago, no matter how much the Bears are struggling. But we can hope!

Well Arizona just beat the hell out of Detroit. If their defense plays an outstanding game then I think they have a chance.

 

[BotchedLobotomy]

Just want the Boys to take care of business and win the next two games. I think this team going into the tournament with a 5 game winning streak will be the best option.

 

[Kevinicus]

Minnesota have to lose out if Cowboys take 6 spot. Minn have Cowboys beat in NFC victories and opponents beaten winning percentage tiebreaks. If Minn beat HOU, and Cowboys fail to win division, there is no way Cowboys leap over Minn.

Not true. If Minnesota's win is against Houston then the conference record is equal, and then if Dallas beats Washington they beat Minnesota on win% in common games.

 

[mldardy]

Not true. If Minnesota's win is against Houston then the conference record is equal, and then if Dallas beats Washington they beat Minnesota on win% in common games.

Yep you are right. Minny would be 1-4(at WASH Loss, CHI X 2 Win/Loss, SEA Loss, Tampa Loss)and we'd be 2-3 in common games.

 

[perrykemp]

I wonder how the Fail Mary game affected all of this.

Had Seattle lost that game, would it change anything?

 

[mldardy]

I wonder how the Fail Mary game affected all of this.

Had Seattle lost that game, would it change anything?

Yeah it would change it a lot. Although there would have been one more 8-6 team in the mix but that lost would have been another conference loss for them

 

[Bowdown27]

In the end...we control our own destiny. We win we are in. That's all that matters to me.

 

[Stryker44]

Yeah it would change it a lot. Although there would have been one more 8-6 team in the mix but that lost would have been another conference loss for them

It would also put the 3 seed completely out of play. I know there is a less than 5% chance of it happening, but I think if either the Commanders or Cowboys won the last 2 games AND Green Bay loses the last 2, they would lose the 3rd seed. I know at least the Skins would beat them on tiebreakers. In all liklihood the 3 seed will be locked up by GB this weekend.

Not expecting it to happen - but I personally would rather host pretty much anybody other than Seattle right now.

 

[bigdnlaca]

Not true. If Minnesota's win is against Houston then the conference record is equal, and then if Dallas beats Washington they beat Minnesota on win% in common games.

That is correct but I doubt that Minn and Dal would be the only ones with the same record and when I said Dallas won't jump Minn. I'm speaking as if there will be a 3 or a 4 way tie.

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

The Washington game is likely the determining factor over New Orleans, New York should lose one.

 

[skinsscalper]

It would also put the 3 seed completely out of play. I know there is a less than 5% chance of it happening, but I think if either the Commanders or Cowboys won the last 2 games AND Green Bay loses the last 2, they would lose the 3rd seed. I know at least the Skins would beat them on tiebreakers. In all liklihood the 3 seed will be locked up by GB this weekend.

Not expecting it to happen - but I personally would rather host pretty much anybody other than Seattle right now.

Not me. That's a different team away from home. I know that they've beaten Chicago (seriously struggling) and Buffalo (handily) on the road, but I want a chance for our team to redeem themselves against the SeaHags at home. Bring 'em on!