Computer updates Cowboys' projected win total

[Doomsday101]

SportsLine Projection Model currently projects that Dallas wins 9.6 games on average over its 10,000 simulations, winning the division 55.7 percent of the time and making the postseason 68.4 percent of the time.

However, that is down from 10 projected wins prior to the start of free agency. William Hill Sportsbook currently lists them at 12-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which are the fifth-best odds of any team in the NFL.

https://www.sportsline.com/insiders...Z-s37_FQ_qX5Yb8wiNI3wpbTy-L-n3fBKpmP3KwdOAjt0

 

[ESisback]

This stuff is interesting, but it doesn’t really mean too much. JMO.

 

[Risen Star]

Did they factor in Maurice Canady? Something seems off.

 

[aikemirv]

0 - in fear of 2nd wave the season will be cancelled.

Wonder if Vegas has odds on that yet?

 

[Doomsday101]

This stuff is interesting, but it doesn’t really mean too much. JMO.

I agree does not mean much. I would say the same for all other team projections.

 

[JBS]

Did they factor in Maurice Canady? Something seems off.

Yeah that's when they dropped from 10 to 9.6 or whatever it is

 

[Ranched]

https://imgflip.com/gif-maker

 

[Starforever]

Did they factor in Maurice Canady? Something seems off.

Lol

 

[ultron]

It all comes down to the new coaching staff

 

[gjkoeppen]

SportsLine Projection Model currently projects that Dallas wins 9.6 games on average over its 10,000 simulations, winning the division 55.7 percent of the time and making the postseason 68.4 percent of the time.

However, that is down from 10 projected wins prior to the start of free agency. William Hill Sportsbook currently lists them at 12-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which are the fifth-best odds of any team in the NFL.

https://www.sportsline.com/insiders...Z-s37_FQ_qX5Yb8wiNI3wpbTy-L-n3fBKpmP3KwdOAjt0

When I see things like this with computer predictions the first thing I think of are two things. First back in the day ESPN used to do the computer decided fights between fighters and then I remember the first Ali/Liston fight where the bookmakers had Liston the favorite by some at 8-1 and others 10-1 and back then those type of odds where like proclaiming the win for Liston before the fight was fought. Funny thing though Ali won by TKO.

Yes there will always be odds and odd makers are usually right or they wouldn't be in business very long, but I give just about zero faith in computer driven simulations because the games are played on the field by real players and with refs that make human errors and judgements and not in a computer. Computers can't judge human inner desires that lift players play above what is their normal or take into account a player who just loses it and does something wrong and gets penalized or tossed out of a game.
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[jazzcat22]

I don’t need a computer to tell me we are close to 10 wins.

Garrett is out and MM is in, that is worth 2 or 3 wins there.

 

[HungryLion]

Did they factor in Maurice Canady? Something seems off.

Wentz just skews the simulation so much. If you remove him from the division the cowboys win it in 110% of the computer simulations.

 

[CowboyRoy]

SportsLine Projection Model currently projects that Dallas wins 9.6 games on average over its 10,000 simulations, winning the division 55.7 percent of the time and making the postseason 68.4 percent of the time.

However, that is down from 10 projected wins prior to the start of free agency. William Hill Sportsbook currently lists them at 12-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which are the fifth-best odds of any team in the NFL.

https://www.sportsline.com/insiders...Z-s37_FQ_qX5Yb8wiNI3wpbTy-L-n3fBKpmP3KwdOAjt0

They basically have MM as worth 2 wins all by himself over the horrid Garrett. And that is with losing guys like Quinn and Jones. So they probably have MM as 3 wins over Garrett all things unchanged. About right to me.

 

[JoeKing]

Computers are evil.

 

[cowboy_ron]

Lol, based on WHAT?

 

[RS12]

William Hill sports book has them at 9.5 wins FWIW.

 

[Doomsday101]

I wonder if the computer said Dallas would only win 4 games how many here would agree. lol

No doubt running 1,000 simulations on a computer tells us nothing. However in the world of betting I'm sure you will have people betting the over/under on how many games a team may win.

 

[ESisback]

Smartypants!

 

[garyo1954]

Yeah, well that's the way too early optimistic high side. That's the reason a season has to be played. Otherwise we could just send stats to the league office and be declared winner or loser.

 

[Doomsday101]

Yeah, well that's the way too early optimistic high side. That's the reason a season has to be played. Otherwise we could just send stats to the league office and be declared winner or loser.

As we sit today I think Cowboys chances of winning more than 9 games and winning the east is still pretty good. I think key core players are in place and I fully expect Dallas to fill some needs in FA and in the draft.