Cowboy Wire: Redzone issues are keeping this offense from being elite

[gtb1943]

They overthink it. Try to get cute.

That was my biggest problem with Landry; all too often he got cute when tough and simple was better

 

[LouBrown]

This is easily answered

• Philadelphia Eagles: 70.5%
• Cincinnati Bengals: 66.7%
• Buffalo Bills: 66.2%
• Washington Commanders: 65.2%
• San Francisco 49ers: 65.2%
• Indianapolis Colts: 65.2%
• Los Angeles Rams: 63.2%
• Detroit Lions: 62.5%
• Atlanta Falcons: 62.0%
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 61.8%
• 11
• 12
• 13
• 14
• 15
• 16
• 17
• Dallas Cowboys: 56.9 (18th)

The absolute difference is 14%
The standard percentage difference is 22.22%
The relative percentage decrease from 70 to 56 is 20%

Idk where that data comes from and it doesn't say sample size. It's also not the metric I was talking about.

All that said, a 5% difference between 18th and 10th is insignificant. It's two possessions.

 

[LouBrown]

Welll do tell. Just take your word for it?

CPOE

 

[blueblood70]

As good as this offense was last year the redzone was their biggest issue. I got blasted last season for saying as good as they are this is the 1 area on offense they need to clean up.

I wouldn’t say you were blasted.

Most of us pointed out that no matter how much better the offense could have played last year, the record and results would have been the same because the defense and special teams were so bad.

That was our best unit and one of the top groups in the NFL, so criticizing them as if improvements in certain areas would have changed the outcome doesn’t really hold up.

For a team ranked 7th in NFL offensive scoring, being told they needed to score more in the red zone might be valid, but if many of their scores came from just outside the 20 or even further, it’s not much of an issue.

They were 5th in the NFC and 1st in the NFC East in scoring, so the offense was producing. I do get it there were a few games where it would have been nice to have more scoring in the second half particularly and some of them were settling for field goals or missing out going for it on 4th down in the red zone and failing I get it but those games were probably lost anyway but I don't think you're going to expect the same thing this year this is Year 2 and Brian Schottenheimer's offense and they will add some more the playbook to it they will put more wrinkles in it..

While all units should aim to improve, focusing heavily on this one category feels like missing context. They scored enough outside the red zone to offset any inefficiency inside it, and the difference between them and higher-ranked teams in the NFC was only a couple of points, not a significant gap.

 

[blueblood70]

To help supplement the Next Gen Stats' Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) subdiscussion:

Completion Probability Explained | Next Gen Stats



I wish Next Gen Stats' data was not proprietary. Open public access would make it easier to examine quarterbacks' execution, according to the formula, per game, half, quarter, and perhaps even per drive.

Edit: CRAP! Stupid YouTube exclusivity will not allow for the video to be embedded and watched outside its site. Changing to a clickable link to the video instead for this reason.

I really despise analytics and next Gen stats because all it does is find cherry picking and nitpicking for fans to argue about,

just look at the records, look at the individual stats,

the rest of it I really don't care about.

I mean skimming over that,

how the hell Daniel Jones aka Danny Dimes that high up on that list, I know he played pretty well at times but seems a bit skewed to me and they have Sam Darnold the SB winner just below the line, which I still don't know what that means, the Super Bowl loser somehow by himself over there in the top right corner.

Maye btw couldn't move the ball in the SB, if memory serves me right, that Seatle D exposed him?

.

 

[pansophy]

Look at what happened last year with Adams and Schotty. The Red Zone issues were considerably better.

I think @Hawkeye0202 has his finger on the pulse here. We went from 1st in 2022 to 12th, to 31st, and back to 14th, and you can basically track our rushing TDs with those stats. We'll know in the preseason. People say that doesn't matter, but you can usually see the problem areas that are going to carry forward.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

CPOE

I don't know what the means...but...Doesn't look like the "unequivical statistics" proof you claim you have. {shrug}

 

[LouBrown]

I don't know what the means...but...Doesn't look like the "unequivical statistics" proof you claim you have. {shrug}

Just because you don't know how to Google doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Just because you don't know how to Google doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Aha...google told you. Figures.

I wanted YOUR sources and YOUR context. As in an adult civil conversation about it.

You could have easily said it in the time it took you to be so condescending.

 

[Vtwin]

I don't know what the means...but...Doesn't look like the "unequivical statistics" proof you claim you have. {shrug}

It's a next gen stat that tries to "calculate" certain factors such as QB pressure, WR separation etc. Apparently, it also uses AI to "find similar passes from the last decade" and their result to try and come up with a difficulty factor.

It stews all that down to try and come up with a number that can be used to compare QB's with.

In the end it works out something like the number on the window sticker at the car dealership. I suppose it does sort of provide some sort of baseline for comparison purposes, but it really has little to do with the real time reality of the individual situations.

One significant flaw in the cpoe is, it doesn't account for the decision making. It doesn't factor in the attempts that weren't made, often, like in Dak's case, because of his inherently conservative nature. It try's to factor in the difference between a checkdown and a shot but it doesn't/can't factor in the reason for the choice of checkdown vs shot.

Essentially meaningless hogwash for the fantasy football nerds to obsess over.

 

[DarkVader33]

Yes! Teams focus on stopping the run forcing the QB into throwing and we all know how Dak likes throwing into tight windows in traffic.

You do realize that the red zone is 20 yards deep? The play calling is very dependent on how close you are to the goal line. The farther away you are, it somewhat leans to passing, but within the 5 yard line, it leans more heavily towards run.

 

[fivetwos]

They don’t have to be perfect in the red zone if you have a reliable kicker and a solid defense. You can win games like 23-13. No need for Kellen Moore-style fraudulence in that case.

More than one way to skin a cat. These guys are so damn fast nowadays, and when they only have a small portion of the field to defend, I can see much of the league having RZ trouble.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

It's a next gen stat that tries to "calculate" certain factors such as QB pressure, WR separation etc. Apparently, it also uses AI to "find similar passes from the last decade" and their result to try and come up with a difficulty factor.

It stews all that down to try and come up with a number that can be used to compare QB's with.

In the end it works out something like the number on the window sticker at the car dealership. I suppose it does sort of provide some sort of baseline for comparison purposes, but it really has little to do with the real time reality of the individual situations.

One significant flaw in the cpoe is, it doesn't account for the decision making. It doesn't factor in the attempts that weren't made, often, like in Dak's case, because of his inherently conservative nature. It try's to factor in the difference between a checkdown and a shot but it doesn't/can't factor in the reason for the choice of checkdown vs shot.

Essentially meaningless hogwash for the fantasy football nerds to obsess over.

Thank you. Lou Brown doesn't know i did search it....and found 2-3 pages of " computerized provider order entry".

I'll check it thanks for taking a moment to explain.


And yes...I knew he had some stats somewhere...and I know they can be used to explain just about anything you want to.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

They don’t have to be perfect in the red zone if you have a reliable kicker and a solid defense. You can win games like 23-13. No need for Kellen Moore-style fraudulence in that case.

More than one way to skin a cat. These guys are so damn fast nowadays, and when they only have a small portion of the field to defend, I can see much of the league having RZ trouble.

I don't think anyone expects them to be perfect. There are times you gotta score TDs. Especially early.

 

[Relayer]

I have a lot of confidence Adams and Schotty will get this addressed and we won't see as many problems this year. It doesn't take much to review the tape and see what's going wrong.

Too much passing in the red zone, IMO. I remember one year Irvin and Smith had a wager on who would score the most TDs. Irvin complained he'd have a 30 yard completion and get tackled on the 1 yard line and Emmit would get a 1 yard run for the TD. Emmit said, stop getting tackled on the 1 yard line.

 

[Relayer]

So no blame goes to the historically awful defense?

For the red zone offense? Nope

 

[Relayer]

Agree........even Dak has mentioned this as an offseason priority to address. When ya get down there, run the darn ball and stop trying to get fancy.

Remember when GB lost to Brady and the Bucs in the nfccg? They had 1st and goal inside the 10. Three straight passes and not a yard gained. On 4th down they chose to kick the FG. Aaron complained they took the ball out of his hand. The media was all over it too taking the ball away from the great AARod. I was like, Why so you could not gain a yard on 4th down too? RUN THE DAMNED BALL. Screw padding the QB's stats.

 

[Relayer]

Ask Pete Carroll about that.

I agree that they needed to run the ball there. I remember thinking after the game though that was the year Lynch was doing his, I'm only here not to get fined. As his response during Pressers. I think they were afraid he'd get MVP and after the game when asked, Where are you going after the SB. Instead of saying Disney World he would have said on international TV, I'm only here not to get fined and embarrassed the team and the league.

 

[Relayer]

I don't think anyone expects them to be perfect. There are times you gotta score TDs. Especially early.

Exactly. The old saying about letting a team hang around comes to mind. You need to bury them if you can. One of those pet peeves of mine about YARDZZZ.

 

[NotForLong]

We have two of the best young guards in the league. I'm hopeful we will see significant improvement in this area.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/st...them&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter



COWBOYS

Cowboys' red-zone issues are keeping them from being an elite offense​

Reid D Hanson
Cowboys Wire

The 2026 offseason has been all about fixing the Dallas Cowboys’ trainwreck of a defense. After finishing last in the NFL in some of the biggest defensive categories, the focus is as understandable as it is warranted. It’s why the Cowboys swung big on new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, and it’s why the vast majority of resources have swung in that direction over the offseason.

But the Cowboys' offense has issues of their own, and unless they do something to fix it, those issues threaten to undermine the 2026 campaign. The issue is their red-zone efficiency and a closer look indicates these known issues are even worse than we suspected.

@poppydog has been saying this for years