News: Cowboys 2016 Draft: The Case Against Drafting A Quarterback At Pick #4

[CCBoy]

Cowboys 2016 Draft: The Case Against Drafting A Quarterback At Pick #4
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2016...case-against-drafting-a-quarterback-at-pick-4


Will they or won't they? That question has been a hot debate for the Dallas Cowboys this offseason in the context of selecting a quarterback with the fourth-overall pick in the draft. There are solid cases to be made on both sides of the debate, today we'll look at the work of two writers who are firmly in the "don't do it" camp. Of course, that argument carries the caveat that if the scouts and the front office are totally convinced that Carson Wentz or Jared Goff is the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady then you have to pull the trigger. Otherwise, the debate is open.

For contrast, let's briefly define the "do it" camp's arguments. Tony Romo is getting older and hasn't played a 16-game season fully since 2012. He's had back issues and is coming off collarbone surgery, an injury that has been an issue twice in his career. The Cowboys are terrible when Romo doesn't play and they don't have a quality backup on the roster. And, if all goes well, the Cowboys will not be drafting this high again anytime soon. All of that says pull the trigger now.

Now the case against. First up is Mike Renner from Pro Football Focus. His argument is based on the idea that the Cowboys are a good team and could be a great team by filling some holes in the draft, and using the number four pick on a what would be a backup quarterback for the foreseeable future is a waste of resources.

The crux of the issue here is that the Cowboys are too good to draft a quarterback right now. This is a roster with the same building blocks (minus DeMarco Murray) from the 2014 team that went 12-4, and now they have a healthy Sean Lee and a budding star in defensive back Byron Jones. At the same time, there are still some glaring holes. Morris Claiborne (38.5 overall grade in 2015) and Brandon Carr (54.7) are both below-average corners on the outside. Tyrone Crawford took a step back a season ago, and new addition Cedric Thornton is their only defensive tackle to grade above 70.0 last season. On offense, even with the addition of Alfred Morris (69.7), they still desperately need a dynamic running back to return the rushing game to its 2014-level. The fourth-overall pick could easily be used to plug one of those holes right away.

If they do draft a quarterback and pass on a guy like Ezekiel Elliott, Joey Bosa, Jalen Ramsey, or DeForest Buckner, who could all be impact players from day one and fit seamlessly into Dallas' scheme, their roster, quite frankly, won't be as talented over the next few seasons. Is that worth the gamble of maybe drafting of the QB of the future?

Renner is of the belief that the Cowboys have a three-year window with Tony Romo and they must invest in that to make a Super Bowl run.

The second writer, Bill Barnwell at ESPN, ventures into deeper waters as he not only looks at building the roster, but calculates the cost of keeping a high-pick quarterback on the roster only to sit behind Romo...

 

[CCBoy]

Isolated as a team expense on a top drafted rookie, and not even taking into account the on the books cost of sustaining two high cost quarterbacks at the same time...




If your rookie quarterback is sitting behind Romo for two years, you're losing the first two years of that valuable market inefficiency while paying the $5.5 million market value for a backup quarterback. Instead, the Cowboys would really get only two years of below-market salaries and a fifth-year option for 2020, which will be in excess of $20 million by the time we get there.

A successful top-five rookie quarterback who enters the lineup from day one and produces at the league average generates something like $56 million in marginal value over his rookie contract, given that he makes an average of $6 million or so over his first four years and would probably be worth something like $20 million per year for those same deals on the free market. When you consider that years 1, 2, and 5 of a potential rookie deal for Wentz or Goff with the Cowboys probably would be at about market value, the Cowboys could only really expect to get about $28 million of marginal value by taking a quarterback fourth. The numbers here oversimplify the story, but the concept is the same -- Dallas just isn't going to get what a typical team would get out of taking a QB high in the first round.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2016...case-against-drafting-a-quarterback-at-pick-4

 

[CCBoy]

Among their visitors to Valley Ranch are the normal suspects for the fourth overall pick: Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Elliott, Joey Bosa, DeForest Buckner and Jalen Ramsey. If they stick at No. 4, it would likely be one of these names.

But the Cowboys have had other first-round possibilities in for visits, which would suggest they would ponder moving down.

Guys such as Paxton Lynch, Shaq Lawson, Vernon Hargreaves and Laquon Treadwell are first-round picks but just not likely at No. 4 overall.

The Cowboys could use more draft picks. Every team could use more draft picks. But in order to move down to acquire more picks, there has to be a player worth grabbing.

Each year you can count quarterback as a player to move up to grab. In the top five, only the Cowboys and Cleveland Browns have high-priority quarterback needs. Would the San Francisco 49ers (seventh) or Philadelphia Eagles (eighth) want to move up to grab a quarterback? Would the Cowboys want to go all the way back to, say, No. 15 and the Los Angeles Rams to make a deal for more picks?

The Cowboys will be open for business.

In case they do move back, they want to be familiar with the names that would be available to them at different areas of the first round or even into the second round.


http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas-cowboys/post/_/id/4750338/cowboys-to-open-preseason-at-rams-on-espn

 

[DandyDon52]

good posts, but they are long so will others read them?