Cowboys 2018 over/under: 25 TD passes for Dak Prescott

waving monkey

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Continuing our series of over/under for the 2018 Dallas Cowboys, we’re going to look at quarterback Dak Prescott. Specifically, we’re setting an over/under number on touchdown passes by the third-year veteran.

Over the two season Dak Prescott has played so far in the NFL, many of his major statistical markers have been remarkably similar and that includes his touchdown passes. In 2016, his rookie year, he threw for 23 TDs, and in 2017 he threw for 22 TDs. The issues in 2017 surrounded his uptick in INTs, 13 compared to four in his first season, and his drop in completion percentage, 67.8% down to 62.9%. But his TD output remained remarkably stable.

Heading into 2018 you can make arguments for either a rise in TD passes, or a decline. Let’s discuss, then set our number.

Increased TD output
  1. Prescott is now going into his third year. This is the time when we should start start seeing an experienced quarterback. He’s seen all kinds of NFL defenses so he’s going to be surprised much less often. His ability to process action quickly should increase as he’s had the experience of the past two years. He knows the playbook, he should be more comfortable running the show. Basically, experience is now in his favor.
  2. The Cowboys have seemingly improved their offensive line. They picked up Connor Williams to play left guard. They brought in Cam Fleming in case Tyron Smith has any health issues. La’el Collins should be better after a year manning right tackle. Prescott should see a better pocket on a consistent basis.
  3. The Cowboys are going to make the offense Dak-friendly. The idea is to run plays that better fit Prescott’s style of play. This in turn should boost his production.
https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/201...2018-over-under-25-td-passes-for-dak-prescott
 
It’s a pretty good set for the over/under. I honestly don’t know. It’s so volatile. Sometimes it just comes down to how many times your receivers get tackled at the one yard line.
 
It’s a pretty good set for the over/under. I honestly don’t know. It’s so volatile. Sometimes it just comes down to how many times your receivers get tackled at the one yard line.
I’m just hoping they don’t come on one yard, first down passes
 
Over the two season Dak Prescott has played so far in the NFL, many of his major statistical markers have been remarkably similar and that includes his touchdown passes. In 2016, his rookie year, he threw for 23 TDs, and in 2017 he threw for 22 TDs. The issues in 2017 surrounded his uptick in INTs, 13 compared to four in his first season, and his drop in completion percentage, 67.8% down to 62.9%. But his TD output remained remarkably stable.

2016 completion % to a former Cowboy, initials DB: 52.1% on 96 targets

2017 completion % to a former Cowboy, initials DB: 53.3% on 135 targets

I'll bet on an uptick in completion percentage, but perhaps not TDs.
 
It’s a pretty good set for the over/under. I honestly don’t know. It’s so volatile. Sometimes it just comes down to how many times your receivers get tackled at the one yard line.

It’s a good point. The running game with Zeke and Dak’s own running ability also increase the variables. He could have 22 TD’s passing but 8 Or more rushing TD’s as a realistic possibility.
 
Might be under due to the loss of Witten, Bryant, and Williams(although he had 0 TDs in 2017), and Zeke being back for a full season. I think Zeke might go for 20 this year. Could certainly be wrong though.

To give a range, I would say 22-26.
 
I'll say under because I expect the Cowboys to be ahead in the 4th quarter a lot so Dak won't be throwing to catch the Cowboys up. Zeke and the RB corp will get the majority of the snaps.
 

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