I think previous years are fairly relevant if coaches and skill position players are similar
I posted this in another thread,
Dallas rank for Pts scored by quarter
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 16 21 10 11
2010 13 15 5 11
2011 17 15 24 6
Since 2009, we are a better scoring second half team. Very average 1st quarter team. Not surprisingly, NO, NE, GNB, Phil all seem to be consistently high in 1st Qtr pts
Dallas rank for Pts scored by OPPONENT by quarter
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 1 3 3 24
2010 25 26 23 30
2011 6 21 18 19
Surprisingly, I couldn't believe how good the 2009 defense was (except 4th qtr) nor how good we were in the 1st quarter last year. No surprise was how repugnant 2010 was and even 2009 showed the 4th quarter story we are so familiar with
Dallas rank for Pts differential by quarter
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 5 12 5 18
2010 18 23 10 25
2011 10 17 20 10
Surprisingly, I couldn't believe how good the 2009 was - 4th quarter may have been what I expected
As good as the Defense was last year, if we could consistently put more points on the board early, that would translate into a different game. I think this has been a Garrett problem since 2008.
I did not adjust for turnovers, defensive scores etc. This year we have 10pts against us in the 1st quarter, but that is not the defenses fault in any way. Those numbers likely get washed out over an entire season....comparing to all teams, but maybe not.