Cowboys are the best 3rd down team in the History of the NFL!!!

[cowboys19]

so far in the first 4 weeks of the season.




from Football Outsiders

I’m working on a sidebar for ESPN The Magazine about how boom-and-bust running backs often leave their teams in third-and-long situations. So I went and did a sort on average yards to go on third down this season. Normally when I say “third down,” I mean “third down and the occasional fourth down.” This time I did just third down because most fourth down opportunities are short-yardage.

Here are the teams with the fewest yards to go on third down this year:

IND 5.0
HOU 5.4
BAL 5.5
NE 5.7

That makes sense. The Colts have a great running game. The Texans and Patriots love to throw short timing routes on first down to get a few yards. The Ravens love to throw those routes if they are in second-and-long.

Here are the teams with the most yards to go on third down this year:

DAL 8.6
SF 8.3
KC 8.0
MIA 7.8

OK, Miami and San Francisco have horrible offenses this year, Kansas City is getting nothing from Larry Johnson, so those make sense. What is Dallas doing here? How is that offense playing so well when they are constantly stuck in third-and-long?

If you have access to the DVOA Premium Database, you can sort 2007 stats by down, so you know the answer. Here are the top third/fourth down offensive DVOA ratings so far this year:

DAL 90.0%
PIT 44.9%
ARI 44.1%
NE 43.5%
NYJ 43.1%

Wait. Here’s passing only:

DAL 133.1%
NYJ 61.6%
NE 61.3%
DEN 56.3%
SEA 53.0%

Wow. That is a serious, serious gap.

Now, I am not saying that Tony Romo is doing it with smoke-and-mirrors. I am not saying that Dallas won’t win the NFC. I am not saying that Dallas won’t still be one of the top three offenses in the league by the end of the season. I am not saying that Dallas will lose to New England in two weeks.

However, that third-down performance is totally and completely unsustainable, and when it comes back to earth, the Cowboys will not look as formidable as they do now. No team has ever put up a third-down passing DVOA over 100%. Only three teams have ever been over 75%: the 1999 Rams (76.4%), the 2004 Vikings (88.7%), and the 2006 Colts (93.1%).

Two more notes:

1) The Colts are 12th on third downs (22.2% DVOA). The “third-down rebound effect” does not exist during the season the same way it exists between seasons, but given the Colts’ history, I think it is safe to say that they are going to be better than this on third downs when the season is over. Which means their offense is underperforming right now. Yikes.

2) Why are the Cowboys in third-and-long so much? Let’s look at rushing on first downs:

Julius Jones: 30 carries, 104 yards
Marion Barber: 22 carries, 202 yards

Seriously, what will it take for the Cowboys to actually let Barber start?

 

[Boyzmamacita]

However, that third-down performance is totally and completely unsustainable, and when it comes back to earth, the Cowboys will not look as formidable as they do now.

Says who?

 

[03EBZ06]

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=98283&highlight=Football+Outsiders

 

[ROMOSAPIEN9]

Irrelavent

 

[Boyzmamacita]

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=98283&highlight=Football+Outsiders

That's not what I meant. I meant who's to say that our offense will slow down at some point? Odds say that it will, but no one could've predicted that the Cowboys would be this explosive without Terry Glenn. So who's to say it won't continue, third downs and all?

 

[Rack]

That's not what I meant. I meant who's to say that our offense will slow down at some point? Odds say that it will, but no one could've predicted that the Cowboys would be this explosive without Terry Glenn. So who's to say it won't continue, third downs and all?

He wasn't replying to you.

 

[Boyzmamacita]

He wasn't replying to you.

Oh. My bad.:leave:

 

[LeonDixson]

The rushing yards on 1st down is only part of the story. Look at the penalties we've had that put us in 2nd and 3rd and VERY long situations. Also take a look at the penalties that have called back good plays on 1st and 2nd down.

 

[cowboys19]

you guys are looking at it wrong. We have the best 3rd down team ever, through 4 weeks.

what are you guys talking about penalties for?

 

[Echo9]

you guys are looking at it wrong. We have the best 3rd down team ever, through 4 weeks.

what are you guys talking about penalties for?

I'd bet our 3rd down conversion for last year after Romo got in was pretty high as well.

This is just statistical evidence of what I and others have been feeling...

THe confidence that we'll convert on third down is still pretty new to me after these past 10 or so years. It's one of my favorite things about this team.

 

[LeonDixson]

you guys are looking at it wrong. We have the best 3rd down team ever, through 4 weeks.

what are you guys talking about penalties for?

I'm talking about penalties because of this:

2) Why are the Cowboys in third-and-long so much? Let’s look at rushing on first downs:

Julius Jones: 30 carries, 104 yards
Marion Barber: 22 carries, 202 yards

Seriously, what will it take for the Cowboys to actually let Barber start?

Now read my post again: I said rushing yards on 1st down don't tell the whole story as this article implies.

However, I totally agree with you the Cowboys have been superb at converting 3rd downs. And as Mamacita said, who says we can't keep doing it.

 

[AdamJT13]

Odds are, our third-down DVOA will go down, but our first- and second-down DVOA will go up.

So, we might not sustain a 90.0 DVOA on third down, but we won't have to go an average of 8.6 yards on third down all season, either.

On a side note, Romo's DVOA on third downs last year was excellent, as well. Could it be that he simply has a knack for making plays when he absolutely has to? In other words, on first or second down, he'd be more likely to give the receiver a chance to make a play when not much is there, or he'd be more likely to throw the ball away or dump it off. But on third down, he's more likely to do whatever it takes to move the chains -- and he often does.

 

[LeonDixson]

Odds are, our third-down DVOA will go down, but our first- and second-down DVOA will go up.

So, we might not sustain a 90.0 DVOA on third down, but we won't have to go an average of 8.6 yards on third down all season, either.

On a side note, Romo's DVOA on third downs last year was excellent, as well. Could it be that he simply has a knack for making plays when he absolutely has to? In other words, on first or second down, he'd be more likely to give the receiver a chance to make a play when not much is there, or he'd be more likely to throw the ball away or dump it off. But on third down, he's more likely to do whatever it takes to move the chains -- and he often does.

I agree. Not only is he clutch on 3rd down, he seemed to be very good about getting us in position to win at the end of games last year. That's one of the things that impressed me about him. He's tough in the clutch.

 

[Clove]

Odds are, our third-down DVOA will go down, but our first- and second-down DVOA will go up.

So, we might not sustain a 90.0 DVOA on third down, but we won't have to go an average of 8.6 yards on third down all season, either.

On a side note, Romo's DVOA on third downs last year was excellent, as well. Could it be that he simply has a knack for making plays when he absolutely has to? In other words, on first or second down, he'd be more likely to give the receiver a chance to make a play when not much is there, or he'd be more likely to throw the ball away or dump it off. But on third down, he's more likely to do whatever it takes to move the chains -- and he often does.

Sum it all up with one word, Romo is

CLUTCH!​

 

[jobberone]

You and Adam are right about Romo IMO. He is tough in the clutch and does have a way to put us in position to win.

But our relying on Romo to get us out of trouble is...well troubling. We should be gaining more on first down and avoiding costly penalties. We have overcome them more than our fair share IMO but that won't continue all season in all liklihood. As long as they don't do this in the postseason it likely won't matter.

The problem is that teams oft play the postseason close to what they do in the regular season.

If we want to be talked about on a par with the Pats, Colts, and Steelers we need to cut down on penalties, rush the ball a little better, and step up the pass coverage and run defense up the middle. And get a few more sacks as well.

But to end on a positive note, I find Romo fascinating to watch. He carries the same positive 'we can get this in the endzone' and 'we can come from behind' and we can win' as Staubach. I don't find it offensive to compare his attitude and ability to date to do it with Staubach. It's clearly there. Now he has to do it for a few more years and win a couple of SBs and he'll be HOF talk and comparable to Staubach and other great comeback artists and winners.

I see no reason for Romo to fall off as long as he has a defense behind him at least as good as the present one and more importantly has an offensive line exactly like the one he has and tools like TO, Witten, Crayton, Hurd, TG and backs like JJ and Barber.

Once again I say this offense is the best I've seen in a long time and it will get better as Crayton, Hurd, and Fasano get better and gain experience and TO and TG keep up their current amazing abilities. And Romo remembers he is not a demi-football god endowed with the ability to will first downs, catches in traffic that should scream careful my prince, careful rather than I can make that play because well I'm The Romo.

Romo will keep his head and not throw too many passes into tight coverage or throw balls in places that safeties enjoin them to throw so they may pick them off for big plays. Jaws advice was very good for him to hear.

And in ending, relax all as this is the best football team since the early 70s and would be the better compared to the early 90s once the OL stops some mistakes and chews up some running plays. We should be able to run lead draws up the middle and to either side whenever we want and take the team down the field until Romo decides to hit a couple of passes in the seams to Witten and those patently TO and TG plays for long gains and scores.

We aren't to far away from looking very very scary to any and all.

 

[Scotman]

You could also take the arguement in another direction. While it is not as plausible, it sure tastes better.

What if the Cowboys do sustain their 3rd down efficiency in combination with improving their performance on both first and second down?

 

[kmd24]

Consider:

• Dallas has far and away the most yards per play (7.0, NE in second with 6.5).
• Dallas is in the bottom half of the league in 3rd down attempts (19th - NE is 31st).
• Dallas has 89 first downs on the season, only 23 converted on 3rd down and 4 on 4th down). The percentage of converted first 1st downs that were converted on 3rd down is 25.8% - 8th lowest in the league.
• Dallas has, on the season, 6 offensive scoring drives that never involved a 3rd down play.

One interesting stat that I just compiled is that, on the season Dallas has faced 33 situations of 3rd and 6 or more. Of these, 18 were caused by either a sack (4), a penalty (10!), or incomplete passes on 1st and 2nd down (4). The running game doesn't seem to be the chief cause of 3rd and longs - it's penalties.

Of the third and long situations that involved at least one run on 1st and 2nd downs, most of them occurred in the NYG (7) and Miami (6) games, so the run game seems to be improving according to this metric. The problems against the Bears (10 3rd and longs) were mostly the result of sacks (3) and penalties (4). All 3rd and long situations against the Rams were the result of sacks (1), penalties (1), or consecutive incomplete passes (2).

 

[dooomsday]

You could also take the arguement in another direction. While it is not as plausible, it sure tastes better.

What if the Cowboys do sustain their 3rd down efficiency in combination with improving their performance on both first and second down?

Thats actually possible. If they increase YPA on 1st & 2nd, 3rd will be shorter yardage, which would be to our advantage. Its not a stretch to increase production on 1st and 2nd either.

I'm just say'n....

Our ETA would be like 150!

 

[pgreptom]

I don't want Barber to start.

Why change what's working.. Barber never faces fresh, 1st team defenses. The quickest I've seen him this year(correct me if I'm wrong), is the third drive.. I've never seen him in the game before the third drive.

 

[superpunk]

This is why we need a real starting RB.