HardHittingRoy31
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At the end of November, the Dallas Cowboys looked almost flawless. Coming off a big win over the Green Bay Packers, the Cowboys were sitting atop the NFC at 11-1, and it looked like they'd coast through December, win a couple of home playoff games in January and get a rematch with the Patriots — the only team that had beaten them — in the Super Bowl.
But now things aren't looking so good in Big D. The Cowboys went 2-2 in December, and they didn't look like a good football team — let alone a great football team — in any of those four games. In the first game after the victory over Green Bay, the Cowboys barely escaped with a 28-27 win against a Detroit Lions team that was one of the worst in the league over the second half of the season. Dallas followed that up with an uninspired 10-6 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, and then looked bored and unmotivated in a 20-13 win over the Carolina Panthers.
The Cowboys finished the season with a 27-6 loss to the Washington Commanders that coach Wade Phillips has tried to blame on the fact that his team had nothing to play for and the Commanders were fighting for a playoff spot. That sounds reasonable, except that most of the Cowboys' top players started the game and didn't come out until the Commanders had a 20-3 lead in the third quarter. QB Tony Romo played long enough to throw 16 passes but completed just seven of them, for 86 yards, with an interception. Running backs Julius Jones and Marion Barber played long enough to carry the ball 14 times between them, but the duo combined for a whopping total of 1 yard.
And then there's the worst news about the Cowboys: Their best player, Terrell Owens, is listed as questionable to play against the Giants because of an ankle injury. Add up all these things, and the Cowboys are as shaky a No. 1 playoff seed as there's been in a long time.
If you've been listening to sports talk radio the last few weeks, you probably think the major issue facing the Cowboys is that the quarterback is dating Jessica Simpson. Cowboys fans are so paranoid about Simpson's potential to destroy their team's Super Bowl run that some have taken to calling her "Yoko Romo." But if there's any evidence that Romo is actually neglecting the things an NFL quarterback has to do during a bye week — staying healthy, studying film, etc., — that evidence hasn't come out. To assume that Romo's girlfriend is the reason the offense isn't playing well is silly.
There is something wrong, though. Early this season, Phillips said, "We don't have a good offense, we have a great offense."
He didn't sound boastful, just matter-of-fact. It's hard to see how anyone could say that about the Cowboys now. The offense needs to be great for the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl, and in December it was barely even good.
A major problem offensively is that the starting running back, Julius Jones, has no business in the starting lineup. Just about everyone — except the Cowboys' coaches — has agreed that Marion Barber is a better option than Jones for a couple of years now, but that has become more and more obvious as the season has worn on. By December, Jones was simply terrible: He finished the month with 31 carries for 67 yards. The most shocking stat? Jones picked up exactly one first down on those 31 carries.
At Football Outsiders, we use a statistic called success rate that demonstrates a running back's consistency, with a successful run being one that makes sufficient progress toward a first down. Of the 56 running backs who carried the ball at least 75 times during the 2007 season, Barber ranked 15th in success rate; Jones ranked 54th.
And although some analysts have suggested that Jones is a smaller, faster runner who's better at getting to the outside, Barber is actually more successful than Jones at runs around the ends. The Football Outsiders stats break down running plays into five different directions — runs up the middle, over the left or right tackle, and around the left or right end. Barber is the more effective runner in all five directions.
Opposing defenses seem to have caught on that they don't have to respect the running game when Jones is on the field, and that makes life more difficult for Romo. One of Romo's greatest assets is his ability to hold opposing linebackers and safeties in place with play-action fakes, but if the running game isn't a threat, Romo's play-action passes won't be effective.
Injured star
Terrell Owens Dallas Cowboys Wide receiver REC Yards AVG Long TD 81 1355 16.7 52 15
But even more than a good running game, Romo needs Owens. Romo led the Cowboys on 15 drives after Owens sprained his ankle against the Panthers, and those drives resulted in nine points. Also missing during those 15 drives was center Andre Gurode, who was out with a knee injury. In his absence, the offensive line suffered.
The last month has been so bad for the Cowboys that Phillips actually had to answer questions at a press conference this week about whether he thinks owner Jerry Jones will fire him if the Cowboys lose their first playoff game. While Jones has since dispelled those rumors, such a scenario played out just last year. A coach (Marty Schottenheimer) who led his team (the Chargers) to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs was fired after San Diego lost its first playoff game.
But there's good news on the horizon for the Cowboys. First, Owens and Gurode are both expected to play Sunday. If they're close to 100 percent, a lot of the problems facing the offense in recent weeks will disappear. And secondly, the Cowboys get to play the Giants, who despite coming off three straight impressive games against the Bills, Patriots and Buccaneers are probably the worst of the eight teams remaining in the playoffs. They gave up 76 points to Dallas in two regular-season loses.
Ultimately, thanks to home-field advantage and what should be a fairly easy road through the NFC playoffs, the Cowboys still have to be considered the favorites to get to the Super Bowl — even if they're not the same team they were against the Packers at the end of November.
link:http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7660622
But now things aren't looking so good in Big D. The Cowboys went 2-2 in December, and they didn't look like a good football team — let alone a great football team — in any of those four games. In the first game after the victory over Green Bay, the Cowboys barely escaped with a 28-27 win against a Detroit Lions team that was one of the worst in the league over the second half of the season. Dallas followed that up with an uninspired 10-6 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, and then looked bored and unmotivated in a 20-13 win over the Carolina Panthers.
The Cowboys finished the season with a 27-6 loss to the Washington Commanders that coach Wade Phillips has tried to blame on the fact that his team had nothing to play for and the Commanders were fighting for a playoff spot. That sounds reasonable, except that most of the Cowboys' top players started the game and didn't come out until the Commanders had a 20-3 lead in the third quarter. QB Tony Romo played long enough to throw 16 passes but completed just seven of them, for 86 yards, with an interception. Running backs Julius Jones and Marion Barber played long enough to carry the ball 14 times between them, but the duo combined for a whopping total of 1 yard.
And then there's the worst news about the Cowboys: Their best player, Terrell Owens, is listed as questionable to play against the Giants because of an ankle injury. Add up all these things, and the Cowboys are as shaky a No. 1 playoff seed as there's been in a long time.
If you've been listening to sports talk radio the last few weeks, you probably think the major issue facing the Cowboys is that the quarterback is dating Jessica Simpson. Cowboys fans are so paranoid about Simpson's potential to destroy their team's Super Bowl run that some have taken to calling her "Yoko Romo." But if there's any evidence that Romo is actually neglecting the things an NFL quarterback has to do during a bye week — staying healthy, studying film, etc., — that evidence hasn't come out. To assume that Romo's girlfriend is the reason the offense isn't playing well is silly.
There is something wrong, though. Early this season, Phillips said, "We don't have a good offense, we have a great offense."
He didn't sound boastful, just matter-of-fact. It's hard to see how anyone could say that about the Cowboys now. The offense needs to be great for the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl, and in December it was barely even good.
A major problem offensively is that the starting running back, Julius Jones, has no business in the starting lineup. Just about everyone — except the Cowboys' coaches — has agreed that Marion Barber is a better option than Jones for a couple of years now, but that has become more and more obvious as the season has worn on. By December, Jones was simply terrible: He finished the month with 31 carries for 67 yards. The most shocking stat? Jones picked up exactly one first down on those 31 carries.
At Football Outsiders, we use a statistic called success rate that demonstrates a running back's consistency, with a successful run being one that makes sufficient progress toward a first down. Of the 56 running backs who carried the ball at least 75 times during the 2007 season, Barber ranked 15th in success rate; Jones ranked 54th.
And although some analysts have suggested that Jones is a smaller, faster runner who's better at getting to the outside, Barber is actually more successful than Jones at runs around the ends. The Football Outsiders stats break down running plays into five different directions — runs up the middle, over the left or right tackle, and around the left or right end. Barber is the more effective runner in all five directions.
Opposing defenses seem to have caught on that they don't have to respect the running game when Jones is on the field, and that makes life more difficult for Romo. One of Romo's greatest assets is his ability to hold opposing linebackers and safeties in place with play-action fakes, but if the running game isn't a threat, Romo's play-action passes won't be effective.
Terrell Owens Dallas Cowboys Wide receiver REC Yards AVG Long TD 81 1355 16.7 52 15
But even more than a good running game, Romo needs Owens. Romo led the Cowboys on 15 drives after Owens sprained his ankle against the Panthers, and those drives resulted in nine points. Also missing during those 15 drives was center Andre Gurode, who was out with a knee injury. In his absence, the offensive line suffered.
The last month has been so bad for the Cowboys that Phillips actually had to answer questions at a press conference this week about whether he thinks owner Jerry Jones will fire him if the Cowboys lose their first playoff game. While Jones has since dispelled those rumors, such a scenario played out just last year. A coach (Marty Schottenheimer) who led his team (the Chargers) to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs was fired after San Diego lost its first playoff game.
But there's good news on the horizon for the Cowboys. First, Owens and Gurode are both expected to play Sunday. If they're close to 100 percent, a lot of the problems facing the offense in recent weeks will disappear. And secondly, the Cowboys get to play the Giants, who despite coming off three straight impressive games against the Bills, Patriots and Buccaneers are probably the worst of the eight teams remaining in the playoffs. They gave up 76 points to Dallas in two regular-season loses.
Ultimately, thanks to home-field advantage and what should be a fairly easy road through the NFC playoffs, the Cowboys still have to be considered the favorites to get to the Super Bowl — even if they're not the same team they were against the Packers at the end of November.
link:http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7660622
