Cowboys closing the gap on Pats... here's proof!

[Silverstar]

After 12 games...

1. Dallas has given up 16 sacks...so has NE

2. Dallas has 33 sacks...NE 31.

3. Dallas has 18 INT's...NE 17

4. Dallas averages 6.4 yards per play...NE 6.3

5. Dallas is giving up 4.9 yards per play...NE 5.1

6. Dallas averages 8.8 yards per pass...NE 8.6

7. Dallas is giving up 6.4 yards per pass...NE 6.8

8. Dallas averages 4.3 yards per rush...NE 4.1

9. Dallas is giving up 3.8 yards per rush...NE 4.1

10. Dallas has 70 plays of 20+ yards (58 pass/12 rush)...NE 59 (56 pass/3 rush)


There are more categories we lead them in and many more they lead us in of course. However, you can't deny that we are certainly on par with NE in key areas and are closing the gap.


:starspin

 

[theogt]

The biggest difference, obviously, is that they score more points. But that's a function of running up the score, rather than having a better offense.

 

[superpunk]

They've closed the gap in the DVOA, too. Now only 20 points behind, and the Pats offense is no longer on pace to be the greatest of the DVOA era - that remains with Peyton and the 2004 Colts.

Maybe a product of not having a dome.

 

[dallascowboysfan31]

great research. we really are on their level for sure. They seem to be fizzling out while we keep getting better and better. They have all their players healthy and we still can anticipate the return of terry glenn. he was heralded as our best receiver last year. Number six is within reach boys!!! let's keep truckin'

 

[theogt]

They've closed the gap in the DVOA, too. Now only 20 points behind, and the Pats offense is no longer on pace to be the greatest of the DVOA era - that remains with Peyton and the 2004 Colts.

Maybe a product of not having a dome.

Interestingly enough, the gap between Dallas and Indy is bigger than the gap between New England and Dallas in terms of "weighted DVOA."

 

[Silverstar]

The biggest difference, obviously, is that they score more points. But that's a function of running up the score, rather than having a better offense.

Also, the Pats have had 77 more offensive plays than the Cowboys. I wonder how many points the Cowboys could score with 77 extra plays?

Hmmmmm...



:starspin

 

[dwmyers]

They've closed the gap in the DVOA, too. Now only 20 points behind, and the Pats offense is no longer on pace to be the greatest of the DVOA era - that remains with Peyton and the 2004 Colts.

Maybe a product of not having a dome.

If the trend continues, the Pats are in trouble. Over the last 6 weeks, they've been out performed by a few teams. And one of those is the Steelers.

David.

 

[thekavorka]

They've closed the gap in the DVOA, too. Now only 20 points behind, and the Pats offense is no longer on pace to be the greatest of the DVOA era - that remains with Peyton and the 2004 Colts.

Maybe a product of not having a dome.

But they're still easily the highest ranked overall team of the DVOA era.

 

[superpunk]

If the trend continues, the Pats are in trouble. Over the last 6 weeks, they've been out performed by a few teams. And one of those is the Steelers.

David.

Here's the summary of last night's performance

Last night, the New England Patriots were completely and totally outplayed. A win is a win in the standings, but in DVOA, the Patriots took a major hit. Here are the ratings for last night’s game, first without opponent adjustments:
TEAM OFF DEF ST TOTAL
BAL 30.2% 2.6% 5.4% 33.0%
NE 2.6% 30.2% -3.4% -31.0%
…and with opponent adjustments:
TEAM OFF DEF ST TOTAL
BAL 37.8% -39.6% 5.4% 82.8%
NE 11.5% 42.5% -3.4% -34.4%

Prior to last night’s game, the Patriots had a DVOA above 45% in every single game this year, and the Ravens had a DVOA below 20% in every single game this year. One of the big reasons for the DVOA difference: Forcing a fumble on an interception return is essentially a fluke play, and isn’t counted in DVOA.

Some other changes thanks to last night’s game:

• New England’s overall DVOA fell nearly 10 percentage points, while Baltimore rose from 24th overall to 17th overall.
• New England no longer qualifies as the top offense of the DVOA Era, falling behind the 2004 Colts. They still rank as the best overall team of the DVOA Era by a healthy margin.
• The Patriots no longer have all three units in the top five, with the defense and special teams falling to eighth and seventh, respectively.
• The Ravens rise to second overall in defense, although the gap between Pittsburgh and Baltimore is larger than the gap between second-place Baltimore and tenth-place San Diego.
• New England rose from 32nd to 19th in VARIANCE, based on just one game. That’s how consistent they were before Monday night.
• Primarily due to this change in VARIANCE, the Patriots are no longer perfect in “estimated wins,” going from 11.0 to 11.3 instead of 12.0.
• In two games, New England’s pythagorean winning percentage has gone from .907 to .887 to .872. Two weeks ago, they had the highest pythagorean winning percentage of any team since the 1969 Minnesota Vikings (.923). They have fallen behind seven teams since the 1970 merger, and numerous teams from before that. Most of those teams are from the seventies, however; the only team to ever have a pythagorean winning percentage above .870 in a 16-game season is the 1985 Bears (.878).

Someone pointed out that the DVOA disparity was similar to the Super Bowl XL disparity between the Seahawks and Steelers. In both games, despite being tremendously outplayed, the team that had a significant penalty advantage won the game. Coincidence? Maybe. But it certainly illustrates the effect officiating and/or "dumb players making dumb plays" can have on the outcome of a game.

 

[LeonDixson]

I hate to seem ignorant, but what does DVOA stand for?

 

[superpunk]

I hate to seem ignorant, but what does DVOA stand for?

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 13 weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

Clicky the link. It's a fantastic site.

 

[dwmyers]

I hate to seem ignorant, but what does DVOA stand for?

It's one of Football Outsider's new fangled stats, explained here:

url: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php

I lost interest in it when Philadelphia dominated it last year with their oh so scary 4-4 record. I think the Beatpaths complaint about it is dead on, which is it's completely independent of game score, and relatively independent of turnovers.

DVOA must have loved them some Chuck Muncie.

David.

 

[thekavorka]

You'd think that almost every offense would get worse as winter sets in and the weather gets worse. So these projecting some early games over the entire 16 game season are probably misleading.

they don't extrapolate data based on the early games. they're simply comparing where the patriots stand now as opposed to other teams after 13 weeks.

if they have performances like last night against the jets or dolphins, the dvoa will certainly decrease, and could probably be less than the 2nd place team, 1999 Rams.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

they don't extrapolate data based on the early games. they're simply comparing where the patriots stand now as opposed to other teams after 13 weeks.

if they have performances like last night against the jets or dolphins, the dvoa will certainly decrease, and could probably be less than the 2nd place team, 1999 Rams.

I know, that's why I deleted that post. :

 

[AdamJT13]

Even more proof that we're closing the gap -- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

They take DVOA and simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times, including the playoffs.

After 10 games, according to their simulations, we had a 42.2 percent chance of going to the Super Bowl and an 18.8 percent chance of winning it. (New England's chances were 52.8 percent and 38.3 percent.)

Now, after 12 games, we have a 51 percent chance of getting there and a 25.4 percent chance of winning it. New England's chances are 52.0 percent and 33.8 percent. What's more, we have a better chance of GETTING to the NFC Championship game -- 75.1 percent -- than the Patriots have of getting to the AFC title game -- 73.7 percent.

Also, we have a 90.1 percent chance of getting the No. 1 seed and a 98.2 percent chance of getting a first-round bye. And we have a 32.2 percent chance of finishing 15-1.

 

[AdamJT13]

I lost interest in it when Philadelphia dominated it last year with their oh so scary 4-4 record.

That's probably because it weights every play equally. If you're great on 55 plays and terrible on three plays, you'll have a high DVOA, but those three plays could cost you the game.

It measures (the best it can, given its flaws) the relative strength of teams based on their overall performance. But as we all know, a team can be outplayed but still win if it makes the right plays at the right times.

I think the Beatpaths complaint

The what?

about it is dead on, which is it's completely independent of game score

That's why I like to combine the DVOA rankings with the Sagarin rankings. One doesn't care about the result of the games, and the other cares ONLY about the result.

and relatively independent of turnovers.

I don't think that's true. I think they just consider recovering fumbles a 50-50 proposition -- if a team recovers 70 percent of its fumbles, it's because of luck, not anything they're good at.

 

[Silverstar]

And we have a 32.2 percent chance of finishing 15-1.

Brad Johnson at QB...32.2%

Tony Romo at QB...100%

 

[Future]

great research. we really are on their level for sure. They seem to be fizzling out while we keep getting better and better. They have all their players healthy and we still can anticipate the return of terry glenn. he was heralded as our best receiver last year. Number six is within reach boys!!! let's keep truckin'

I don't buy into them fizzling or struggling or whatever. Fact is they are undefeated. If Dallas fizzles its way to the Super Bowl I would be more than happy.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

I really believe they peaked to soon and we are improving.....I like that mixture.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

The big differences between the Cowboys and Pats are the penalties and the number of turnovers given up. The Pats have much better numbers in both areas.