Cowboys Depth Chart for 2015 - Offensive Edition

Nation

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I wanted to take a look at the players that our Dallas Cowboys have under contract for 2015 both to get a sense of where they may lean in the upcoming draft as well as to get an idea for what the actual identity of this team is designed to be. I populated a best-guess depth chart of the current Cowboys team and who is signed through 2015 and for what amount to sniff out where the team may be leaning. I started with the Offense because it seemed like an easier project than the patchwork Defense we trotted out last season. Having done this exercise it is easy to justify using a 1st round 2014 pick on both Tackle and Guard, as well as Day Two picks on either of those positions as well as receiver and running back.

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Romo's cap number is alarming but his base salary for 2015 (17M) was designed to take advantage of the final year of the contract that does not have any money from his original signing bonus amortized against it. With an older player coming off back surgery you wonder if that will be the right thing to do, but that's a question to be answered after the 2014 season.

Orton seems to be playing Bonus Russian Roulette - not wanting to play in 2014, but not wanting to give back any signing bonus money if he retires. It's a concern to me that the backup quarterback is not fully invested, because that's a job you need someone to fully prepare for day-in and day-out without the reward of playing time.

Brandon Weeden costs nothing, which is probably around what he's worth. It's definitely a position they should be investing at least a developmental draft pick in. At the best you get Romo's eventual replacement. At worst you get a cost-efficient backup QB on your roster instead of investing close to 5M a year at a position you are hoping never plays. Teams with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning take the latter approach, and I have no problem doing the same with a team with Tony Romo.​

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None of the running backs in this years free agency class signed substantial deals (Chris Johnson 2 years 8M, Ben Tate 2 years 6.2M, Moreno 1 year 3M) but none of those running backs in 2014 hold the value that Murray does. It'll be interesting to see what road they choose with him. The next best 2015 free agent will be Shane Vereen, so it is fair to say Murray has a good shot of setting the market at the position next year. This is a tough one for the Cowboys to evaluate, because he's shown star potential as well as all of the wear and tear injury concerns that have the running back position undervalued in the first place.

If Lance Dunbar shows in 2014 I'd expect him to get a tender as a Right of First Refusal free agent.

Randle at best is an unknown and at worst a "meh" so this isn't a position I'd be shocked to see the Cowboys a 3rd round pick in the next two years if they have legitimate concerns about signing Murray to a contract that works for both parties. This draft is supposed to be deep at running back where you might be able to find that level of talent on the third day of the draft.

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Terrance Williams is the only receiver currently signed for 2015, although it is highly unlikely there will be that level of turnover. If there was a scenario in which Dez Bryant wouldn't be a Cowboy in 2015 you'd have to assume a trade to do so would have already occurred, and that seems highly unlikely. I'm actually of the belief that wide receiver isn't a position you invest 10M per year contracts in, but I think Dallas feels differently about Dez.

As of today, the 2015 free agent receiver class is stacked. It includes Dez, Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson, Crabtree, Maclin, Brandon Marshall, Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb, and Cecil Shorts just for starters. Some of those guys will be signed to contract extension or see a franchise tag, but if Dez were to price himself out of the market there are at least options out there. But at the same time I don't see this as having any potential ending other than a franchise tag or a long term contract, with the latter more likely to me.

As for the other free agents, Dwayne Harris is another story and he may be victim of a stacked free agent class, which hopefully means we can sign him on the cheap as he has been a difference maker on special teams. I'd expect Beasley to see the RFA tag come his way as well. Receiver is another deep position this year, with BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1 currently projecting 7 players with 1st round grade and 14 players with 2nd round grades or higher. It's certainly a position to watch when it comes to the Cowboys 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round raft picks.

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Tight End seems like it has a good deal of continuity to it, unless they decide to go in a different direction on Hanna this offseason or next. Witten has an 8.5M cap number for 2015 which is pretty steep but with a 5.2M cap hit if released you'd think it's worth the 3M to keep him around, unless they opted to make him a June 1st cut. But as an iconic player for the franchise I'd wager that instead they find a way to keep Witten on the team for his entire career.

Escobar has serious athleticism and adding arguably the best TE coach in the league in Mike Pope could have him in line for an expanded role. He has the size to be a legit red zone weapon for when teams over-commit to Dez as well as to box out defenders at the top of seam routes. There are scenarios where I could see the Cowboys using a Day Three draft pick at Tight End if they think Hanna has maxed out his potential, or if they want to add a blocking tight end, or simple if there is the right mix of value at the draft slot. But it isn't one to be particularly concerned about over the long haul.​

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Interior Offensive Line also looks like it could have some potential issues in the near future. Ronald Leary is under reasonable control for the next few seasons but the long term concerns about his knee have not disappeared. Bernadeau appears to have finally found his home in the line after a very underwhelming start but again he's not a starter you ignore your draft board for either. Having a building block player in Travis Frederick is a huge plus and allows you to not have to force the guard positions, but you're going to need a plus-player at either RG or RT in the next couple of years if the team wants to have an upper echelon offensive line. If the elite defensive line positions are gone I'd have no problem with Dallas trading down for more picks and using a late first on UCLA's Xavier Su'a Filo.

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I'm of the belief that Left Tackle is one of the three or four most important positions on any football team and that having a stud there makes all your other positions better, and that having a bust there will make 4 other Pro Bowlers across the line a lot less efficient. Fortunately at the Left Tackle spot Dallas has an absolute stud in Tyron Smith, who didn't let up a quarterback hit or hurry after Week 7 of last season. He very well may target Joe Thomas money (7/$84M with 44 guaranteed) and I think he's worth the price.

Moving to Right Tackle is a whole 'nother story. Doug Free is an obvious 2015 cap issue with an 11M number and I'm not sure the team should work out another extension with him now that he is in his 30s. This makes offensive tackle a real possibility as early as Pick #16, although I'd like to see the team trade down to acquire additional picks rather than make that move. With the benefit of not needing to find someone with left tackle feet, I'm of the belief you can find a mauler in the run game who is good enough at pass protection to slot in as a RT of the future in the late 1st round or even in the 2nd.

Both Darrion Weems and Jeremy Parnell are free agents, so there will need to be something done at that spot in the near future.​

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Other Notes: Fullback doesn't have anyone signed for 2015 but that's a first-world problem in the NFL today...Bailey's contract got some national media flack but he has been consistently solid and should remain such for the contract...1M seems like a lot for a long snapper but it is a position I'm probably under-appreciating given that I can't remember the last time LP Ladouceur screwed up a snap...Chris Jones will be back in 2015 on a RFA tender.
 

BigStar

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Great write up and outlook for the 2015 FAs. I agree that Murray is a tricky situation (injury prone but productive) but the team will never use him as the primary threat being a passing team (@ times to a fault), so would definitely let him test the waters in FA. After Barber, I hope JJ has learned to keep the contract short if they do work something out. Rbs are a dime a dozen in the league and a good OL takes precedent. This team definitely needs to continue adding talent along the OL. Ideally, the team could add two in this draft to supplant Free in 2015 and one to push Mack/Leary into a backup role. Dez should get resigned during the season but would let Harris test FA as well. Great post!
 
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TheCowboy

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Wouldn't pay Murray big $$$ but I would retain him for under $2 mil a year. If he doesn't agree, adios.
 

CF74

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Wouldn't pay Murray big $$$ but I would retain him for under $2 mil a year. If he doesn't agree, adios.

I'd probably pay him $3.5 mill provided he plays a full season and continues to put up 1,000+ Yds.
 

dallasdave

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I wanted to take a look at the players that our Dallas Cowboys have under contract for 2015 both to get a sense of where they may lean in the upcoming draft as well as to get an idea for what the actual identity of this team is designed to be. I populated a best-guess depth chart of the current Cowboys team and who is signed through 2015 and for what amount to sniff out where the team may be leaning. I started with the Offense because it seemed like an easier project than the patchwork Defense we trotted out last season. Having done this exercise it is easy to justify using a 1st round 2014 pick on both Tackle and Guard, as well as Day Two picks on either of those positions as well as receiver and running back.

8sgHb8t.png

Romo's cap number is alarming but his base salary for 2015 (17M) was designed to take advantage of the final year of the contract that does not have any money from his original signing bonus amortized against it. With an older player coming off back surgery you wonder if that will be the right thing to do, but that's a question to be answered after the 2014 season.

Orton seems to be playing Bonus Russian Roulette - not wanting to play in 2014, but not wanting to give back any signing bonus money if he retires. It's a concern to me that the backup quarterback is not fully invested, because that's a job you need someone to fully prepare for day-in and day-out without the reward of playing time.

Brandon Weeden costs nothing, which is probably around what he's worth. It's definitely a position they should be investing at least a developmental draft pick in. At the best you get Romo's eventual replacement. At worst you get a cost-efficient backup QB on your roster instead of investing close to 5M a year at a position you are hoping never plays. Teams with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning take the latter approach, and I have no problem doing the same with a team with Tony Romo.​

Fi7anrC.png
None of the running backs in this years free agency class signed substantial deals (Chris Johnson 2 years 8M, Ben Tate 2 years 6.2M, Moreno 1 year 3M) but none of those running backs in 2014 hold the value that Murray does. It'll be interesting to see what road they choose with him. The next best 2015 free agent will be Shane Vereen, so it is fair to say Murray has a good shot of setting the market at the position next year. This is a tough one for the Cowboys to evaluate, because he's shown star potential as well as all of the wear and tear injury concerns that have the running back position undervalued in the first place.

If Lance Dunbar shows in 2014 I'd expect him to get a tender as a Right of First Refusal free agent.

Randle at best is an unknown and at worst a "meh" so this isn't a position I'd be shocked to see the Cowboys a 3rd round pick in the next two years if they have legitimate concerns about signing Murray to a contract that works for both parties. This draft is supposed to be deep at running back where you might be able to find that level of talent on the third day of the draft.

AVcU7ej.png
Terrance Williams is the only receiver currently signed for 2015, although it is highly unlikely there will be that level of turnover. If there was a scenario in which Dez Bryant wouldn't be a Cowboy in 2015 you'd have to assume a trade to do so would have already occurred, and that seems highly unlikely. I'm actually of the belief that wide receiver isn't a position you invest 10M per year contracts in, but I think Dallas feels differently about Dez.

As of today, the 2015 free agent receiver class is stacked. It includes Dez, Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson, Crabtree, Maclin, Brandon Marshall, Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb, and Cecil Shorts just for starters. Some of those guys will be signed to contract extension or see a franchise tag, but if Dez were to price himself out of the market there are at least options out there. But at the same time I don't see this as having any potential ending other than a franchise tag or a long term contract, with the latter more likely to me.

As for the other free agents, Dwayne Harris is another story and he may be victim of a stacked free agent class, which hopefully means we can sign him on the cheap as he has been a difference maker on special teams. I'd expect Beasley to see the RFA tag come his way as well. Receiver is another deep position this year, with BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1 currently projecting 7 players with 1st round grade and 14 players with 2nd round grades or higher. It's certainly a position to watch when it comes to the Cowboys 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round raft picks.

J0lrhaR.png
Tight End seems like it has a good deal of continuity to it, unless they decide to go in a different direction on Hanna this offseason or next. Witten has an 8.5M cap number for 2015 which is pretty steep but with a 5.2M cap hit if released you'd think it's worth the 3M to keep him around, unless they opted to make him a June 1st cut. But as an iconic player for the franchise I'd wager that instead they find a way to keep Witten on the team for his entire career.

Escobar has serious athleticism and adding arguably the best TE coach in the league in Mike Pope could have him in line for an expanded role. He has the size to be a legit red zone weapon for when teams over-commit to Dez as well as to box out defenders at the top of seam routes. There are scenarios where I could see the Cowboys using a Day Three draft pick at Tight End if they think Hanna has maxed out his potential, or if they want to add a blocking tight end, or simple if there is the right mix of value at the draft slot. But it isn't one to be particularly concerned about over the long haul.​

3I6qt7e.png
Interior Offensive Line also looks like it could have some potential issues in the near future. Ronald Leary is under reasonable control for the next few seasons but the long term concerns about his knee have not disappeared. Bernadeau appears to have finally found his home in the line after a very underwhelming start but again he's not a starter you ignore your draft board for either. Having a building block player in Travis Frederick is a huge plus and allows you to not have to force the guard positions, but you're going to need a plus-player at either RG or RT in the next couple of years if the team wants to have an upper echelon offensive line. If the elite defensive line positions are gone I'd have no problem with Dallas trading down for more picks and using a late first on UCLA's Xavier Su'a Filo.

Mlye1mQ.png
I'm of the belief that Left Tackle is one of the three or four most important positions on any football team and that having a stud there makes all your other positions better, and that having a bust there will make 4 other Pro Bowlers across the line a lot less efficient. Fortunately at the Left Tackle spot Dallas has an absolute stud in Tyron Smith, who didn't let up a quarterback hit or hurry after Week 7 of last season. He very well may target Joe Thomas money (7/$84M with 44 guaranteed) and I think he's worth the price.

Moving to Right Tackle is a whole 'nother story. Doug Free is an obvious 2015 cap issue with an 11M number and I'm not sure the team should work out another extension with him now that he is in his 30s. This makes offensive tackle a real possibility as early as Pick #16, although I'd like to see the team trade down to acquire additional picks rather than make that move. With the benefit of not needing to find someone with left tackle feet, I'm of the belief you can find a mauler in the run game who is good enough at pass protection to slot in as a RT of the future in the late 1st round or even in the 2nd.

Both Darrion Weems and Jeremy Parnell are free agents, so there will need to be something done at that spot in the near future.​

M1JsYGJ.png
Other Notes: Fullback doesn't have anyone signed for 2015 but that's a first-world problem in the NFL today...Bailey's contract got some national media flack but he has been consistently solid and should remain such for the contract...1M seems like a lot for a long snapper but it is a position I'm probably under-appreciating given that I can't remember the last time LP Ladouceur screwed up a snap...Chris Jones will be back in 2015 on a RFA tender.

I really like this, thank you.
 

TheFinisher

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Murray is the best chance for Romo to ever win anything, yet so many are wanting to let him walk if he doesn't accept something less than he deserves. Hilarious. Unless you guys still think Romo is gonna put this team on his shoulders with his arm and take them where he's never been able to go as a 34+ year old QB... Which is even more hilarious. Probably the same crowd that wants us to trade Dez.
 

Nation

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Murray is the best chance for Romo to ever win anything, yet so many are wanting to let him walk if he doesn't accept something less than he deserves. Hilarious. Unless you guys still think Romo is gonna put this team on his shoulders with his arm and take them where he's never been able to go as a 34+ year old QB... Which is even more hilarious. Probably the same crowd that wants us to trade Dez.

It comes down to how much you value the running back position. I personally thing putting money into an offensive line that can protect the passer and open up holes is more important than the actual running back. You don't want to put everything on the QB, but you also don't want to build behind Arian Foster or Ray Rice or the countless other NFL running backs that are great and then workload catches up. It's a matter of playing the percentages where you can only pay so many positions top dollar.
 

TheCowboy

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Murray is the best chance for Romo to ever win anything, yet so many are wanting to let him walk if he doesn't accept something less than he deserves. Hilarious. Unless you guys still think Romo is gonna put this team on his shoulders with his arm and take them where he's never been able to go as a 34+ year old QB... Which is even more hilarious. Probably the same crowd that wants us to trade Dez.

Not at all. How hard is it really to find a RB in the NFL? Not very, especially if you have a good O-Line. I like Murray and he can't even stay on the field for a full season. Hilarious, right? Same crowd? Hilarious.
 

xwalker

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The primary needs on offense:
Backup OG. They have zero depth there.
Backup outside WR.
Maybe a blocking TE or FB.

At QB, they might as well just tank the season if Romo can't play. Weeden would be a cheap way to di it.
 
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